The Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has evolved into a high-stakes political showdown between President William Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
The outcome is expected to influence next year's political landscape in the Mt Kenya region.
The Star has established that the Linda Mwananchi movement, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, is set to back DCP candidate Sammy Ngotho.
The by-election has attracted nine candidates, most of them drawn from parties aligned with the united opposition.
They are Ngotho, Samuel Muchina (UDA), Timothy Kamau (People’s Renaissance Movement), Edwin Muchiri (PNU), Wilson Kigwa (Jubilee), Stephen Wanyoike (NLP), Rachael Njoroge (PDP), Edward Mwaniki (Kenya Moja Movement) and Abdifatah Hussein (Federal Party of Kenya).
The decision by the Sifuna-led team to rally behind Gachagua’s candidate is expected to fuel fresh political debate and bolster unity within the two camps.
“We will be campaigning for the DCP candidate because he is the only formidable opposition contender in the race,” Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi told the Star.
According to Osotsi, the team will hold a series of major campaign rallies in Ol Kalou and Nyahururu towns, as well as two other centres, in a final push to consolidate the opposition vote ahead of polling day.
The by-election is set for Thursday next week.
Although only one parliamentary seat is at stake, it is believed the contest carries significance far beyond Nyandarua county.
Both camps see the contest as a referendum on who commands the vote-rich Mt Kenya bloc following the dramatic fallout between Ruto and Gachagua.
The seat was held by Jubilee MP David Kiaraho, who died on March 29.
For President Ruto, winning the seat would validate his claim the Kenya Kwanza administration remains firmly in control of the region despite months of criticism from Gachagua and his allies.
A victory would also reassure UDA legislators and grassroots leaders that the President’s political machinery remains intact as attention shifts to his re-election bid.
A loss, however, would hand the opposition a symbolic victory, reinforcing claims dissatisfaction within Mt Kenya has translated into electoral rejection.
This would trigger anxiety among elected leaders who have remained loyal to the President but are increasingly weighing their political survival ahead of 2027.
The by-election is equally critical for Gachagua, who, despite not hitting the campaign trail, has deployed his foot soldiers to campaign for the DCP candidate.
A victory would strengthen his argument that he remains the region’s principal political voice and demonstrate his ability to convert criticism of the government into votes.
Such an outcome would significantly boost his standing within the united opposition and enhance his bargaining power ahead of the next general election.
Defeat for Gachagua would expose weaknesses in his team and provide ammunition to critics who argue he does not have control of the region.
“The stakes are very high,” noted political analyst Martin Andati.
“Ruto wants to prove that he has support in the Mountain and that is why they are deploying the kind of resources we are witnessing.
“For Gachagua, it is do or die. You know if he loses Ol Kalou, the claim that he has the Mountain would have been debunked. He must make sure that he wins.”
The high stakes have partly explained the heavy deployment of senior government officials to Nyandarua in recent weeks.
Cabinet secretaries, PS, members of Parliament and UDA campaign teams have repeatedly toured the constituency, unveiling and inspecting development projects while urging residents to support the government-backed candidate.
Gachagua’s allies have accused the government of deploying the full weight of the state to secure victory, alleging the development projects are being coordinated to influence the outcome.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu on Thursday accused the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) of failing to stop rampant voter bribery.
He faulted the agency for ignoring blatant violations of campaign rules.
The close Gachagua ally alleged there was open voter bribery, yet the commission had taken no visible action against those behind the practice.
“It is very embarrassing, especially for the IEBC. What is going on in Ol Kalou is open bribery of voters,” Nyutu said.
“The government is bribing people openly and visibly with rice, mattresses, blankets and boats and saying it is just a coincidence.”
Former presidential candidate Ekuru Aukot, weighing in on the bribery allegations, maintained the giveaways were meant to entice voters.
“Development ought to be a continuous process. There is a lot of lying and convenience happening. It is the right of every Kenyan to development, but it is wrong for it to be politically used to entice them,” Aukot said.
Pro-government MPs, however, dismissed the accusations, insisting they are merely delivering on development commitments and that elected leaders have every right to campaign for their party’s candidate.
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita said the government has only responded to claims by the opposition that the current administration is doing nothing for the people of Ol Kalou.
“The opposition has gone there misleading the people, saying the government has not done anything for them. They [the people of Ol Kalou] don’t have an MP and if the government says, ‘Let us do something for them,’ so be it,” he said.
The lawmaker also said the opposition had sensed defeat and was preparing its supporters for any eventuality.
“The opposition has sensed defeat. They were chest-thumping about Ol Kalou but I want to tell you they are going to see dust, so they have to find something to clutch on,” Nyamita said.
Former nominated MP Wilson Sossion also dismissed the opposition’s claims as a sign of panic ahead of the by-election.
“We have a robust IEBC. DCP should accept that they lost fair and square in Mbeere, Magarini, Emurua Dikirr and Malava. Prepare to also lose next week in Ol Kalou,” the former unionist said.
