Climate experts warn of reduced rainfall and hot weather across Kenya form June

Rain expected in parts of Nairobi /FILE

Large parts of Kenya are set to experience below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures between June and September 2026, a new regional climate outlook has warned, raising fresh concerns over food security, water supply and livelihoods.

The forecast, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Addis Ababa, shows that western and coastal Kenya are among the areas most likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the critical season.

The June to September period is a key rainfall window for agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation across the region.

While most parts of western Kenya face a likely dry spell, ICPAC noted that some areas along the coast could receive near-normal rainfall, offering limited relief to communities that depend heavily on seasonal rains.

At the same time, the region is expected to be hotter than usual. ICPAC projects above-normal temperatures across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya.

Rainfall forecast for June to September 2026 in the IGAD Region./KNA

The agency warned that the combined effect of heat and reduced rainfall could hit rain-fed agriculture, strain water availability, reduce livestock productivity and worsen food insecurity. Public health systems and hydropower generation may also come under pressure.

Pastoral communities in arid and semi-arid regions are expected to be among the most affected, with rising vulnerability already linked to climate-related shocks.

According to ICPAC, the expected conditions resemble patterns seen during strong El Niño years such as 1997 and 2023, when several parts of the region, including western Kenya, experienced below-normal rainfall.

Speaking during the forum, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware urged countries in the region to move beyond warnings and focus on preparedness.

“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action', recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” he said.

Ethiopian Meteorological Institute Director General Fetene Teshome called for stronger investment in climate services and deeper regional cooperation to build resilience.

"We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels," Teshome said.

ICPAC said it will continue issuing regional updates, while national meteorological agencies are expected to release more detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has projected rainfall in a few parts of the country over the next 24 hours, with heavier showers likely in the highlands west of the Rift Valley.

KMD’s latest outlook also warns of strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.5 m/s) across parts of the Northwestern, Northeastern, Coastal and Southeastern Lowlands.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and selected Rift Valley counties, including Kakamega, Kisumu, Nakuru, Narok, Uasin Gishu and Kisii.

The forecast indicates generally sunny intervals across much of the country, with light morning rains in some areas and more widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

With the new outlook pointing to hotter and potentially drier months ahead, attention is now turning to how national and regional authorities will respond to the looming climate stress.