DCP headache for Ruto, ODM as Gachagua party popularity surges

Barely a year after its formation and association with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, DCP has surged to become one of the country’s top political parties, according to the latest survey by TIFA Research.

The poll released on Thursday shows DCP now enjoys 16 per cent national support, nearly tying with ODM at 18 per cent and UDA at 17 per cent.

TIFA noted that in statistical terms, ODM, UDA and DCP are ‘nearly equal’ in popularity given the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.

The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11 through face-to-face interviews with 2,013 respondents across all 47 counties.

The findings mark a noticeable rise for DCP, whose support has climbed sharply from six per cent in November 2025 to the current 16 per cent.

For President Ruto, the numbers present an early warning sign ahead of the 2027 general election.

This is especially because the party is no longer confined to Mt Kenya, where Gachagua has largely anchored his anti-government campaign.

The poll shows DCP commanding a dominant 39 per cent support in Mt Kenya, making it the region’s leading political vehicle.

It was rated ahead of the Uhuru Kenyatta-backed Jubilee Party at 16 per cent and the ruling UDA, which was rated at seven per cent.

More significantly for State House strategists, the party is also beginning to gain traction in the Rift Valley, which is President Ruto’s traditional political bastion.

According to the survey, DCP has support levels of 20 per cent in the Central Rift and 17 per cent in the South Rift.

While UDA still remains dominant in Central Rift at 31 per cent, the emergence of DCP as the second force in the region underscores the growing cracks within Kenya Kwanza’s support base.

The latest Emurua Dikirr MP by-election, albeit won by UDA’s candidate David Keter, appears to have reinforced that perception.

DCP candidate Vincent Rotich garnered 10,760 votes in the contest, an outcome that the party has framed as proof that it can compete effectively even in regions historically considered loyal to President Ruto and UDA.

But UDA dismissed attempts to portray the result as a rejection of the ruling party.

UDA director of communications Nathan Mong’are told the Star that the votes garnered by Rotich reflected the personal strength of candidates in the race rather than a shift against President Ruto.

“The votes Vincent got were not in protest against UDA. Come election, those who voted for Dollarline and Vincent will vote for Ruto,” Mong’are said.

He argued that the constituency had unique political dynamics, noting that even former MP Johanna Ng’eno struggled in previous contests.

“Mzee Johanna used to win with margins of 2,000 or 3,000 votes. This cannot be compared with Keter’s margin of about 9,000 votes,” he said.

Mong’are also dismissed the credibility of the TIFA survey.

“We don’t believe the pollster at all. Past elections have proven that they are not accurate. In 2022, they said our secretary general Hassan Omar had a six per cent rating, yet he got 44 per cent in the election,” he said.

The result has nonetheless energised Gachagua and his allies, who are increasingly portraying DCP as a national movement capable of challenging the ruling coalition beyond Mt Kenya.

In a lengthy statement following the result, Gachagua described Rotich’s performance as “a splendid performance that has shaken South Rift politics.”

“A score of 10,760 votes is no mean feat,” Gachagua said while congratulating party supporters and campaigners.

“The DCP Party has made a heroic entry in Kenyan politics and is undoubtedly the most credible alternative vehicle to all aspirants who do not enjoy the favour of the ruling and corrupt elite,” Gachagua said.

He further praised voters in Emurua Dikirr for “showing independence of mind” and resisting intimidation.

The former deputy president has, in recent months, intensified attacks on the Kenya Kwanza administration following his impeachment and removal from office.

Political pundits argue that he has positioned himself as one of the government’s fiercest critics.

TIFA noted that Gachagua’s political activities are increasingly shaping the opposition landscape.

The survey observed that the former DP has remained actively campaigning in various parts of the country, especially in his Mt Kenya region.

The study also shows that Gachagua remains politically influential within the Kikuyu community.

At least 70 per cent of respondents who acknowledged the existence of an ethnic political leader identified Gachagua as that figure.

Even so, the data suggests Gachagua still faces hurdles in converting his growing party machinery into a national presidential bid.

In the preferred 2027 presidential race, he is rated at nine per cent in a poll where President Ruto leads with 24 per cent support.

Ruto is followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, and Edwin Sifuna at 10 per cent.

However, the poll also indicates that opposition fragmentation could ultimately work to Ruto’s advantage.

TIFA concluded that while the President’s popularity suggests electoral vulnerability, the absence of a clear opposition front-runner may blunt any serious challenge against him.

Even so, the rise of DCP adds a new layer of uncertainty to the political equation. The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election is yet another battleground for the parties to test their strengths.

For a party that did not exist in the last general election, its rapid growth, especially in Mt Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley, is likely to unsettle Kenya Kwanza strategists as the race to 2027 gradually takes shape.