Ruto most preferred 2027 presidential candidate - poll

President William Ruto during the official launch of Kenya’s candidature of Justice Njoki Ndung’u for election as judge of the ICC on May 13, 2026/PCS

President William Ruto is the most preferred candidate in the 2027 presidential race, according to new poll findings that show a fragmented and still-fluid contest.

Respondents were asked, "Whether or not you have ever voted or intend to vote in the future, whom would you like to win the 2027 presidential election?”

The survey by Tifa Research required a single response from participants.

Findings placed Ruto ahead with 24 per cent support among over 2,000 respondents spread across the country.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka emerged second with 19 per cent support, while former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i followed at 14 per cent.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna ranked fourth with 10 per cent support, followed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 9 per cent.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino registered 2 per cent support.

The poll also found that 15 per cent of respondents remain undecided on their preferred presidential candidate, while 3 per cent selected “other” candidates and another 3 per cent gave no response.

According to the survey, the 2027 presidential race remains highly fluid, with no single candidate commanding dominant national support.

The findings further point to a fragmented opposition landscape, with support spread across multiple leaders rather than consolidating around one challenger.

The survey also found that less than half of Kenyans say their ethnic community currently has a recognised political leader.

Among respondents who affirmed that their ethnic community has a leader, the findings showed considerable variation in the level of agreement on who that leader is.

The highest level of unanimity was recorded among the Kamba community, where more than nine in 10 respondents identified Kalonzo Musyoka as their political leader at 93 per cent.

Majority agreement was also recorded among the Kisii, with 83 per cent identifying Fred Matiang’i as their community leader.

Among the Kalenjin respondents, 73 per cent identified President Ruto as their political leader, while 70 per cent of Kikuyu respondents identified Rigathi Gachagua as their recognised leader.

Fieldwork for the survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews carried out mainly in Swahili and English.

The nationally representative sample covered nine zones, namely Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

A total of 2,013 respondents were interviewed, with the survey carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent, with larger margins applying to sub-samples.