Why Ruto's UDA faces tough fight in Emurua Dikirr by-election

It is a political test for President William Ruto and his ruling United Democratic Alliance in one of the most sensitive constituencies in the South Rift region.

Although UDA candidate David Keter, alias ‘Dollarline,’ enjoys the backing of state machinery and the ruling party, his path is not easy.

Growing dissatisfaction among sections of the Kipsigis community, unresolved land disputes, fallout from party primaries and longstanding grievances over development projects have made the race highly competitive.

Residents also grumble about the delayed probe into the helicopter crash that killed Ng’eno.

At the centre of the contest is a battle between UDA’s Keter and Vincent Rotich of the Democracy for Citizens Party, a political outfit associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

For many residents, the election is not only about choosing a new MP but also about sending a political message to the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Unfulfilled promises

A major issue dominating DCP campaigns is the accusation of unfulfilled promises by Ruto’s government in the Kipsigis region.

Some leaders and residents claim the community strongly supported Kenya Kwanza in the 2022 election, but has received little in terms of development projects and government appointments compared to other regions.

They argue that roads, water projects, health facilities and employment opportunities promised during campaigns have either stalled or failed to materialise.

The perception that the government is prioritising regions that did not overwhelmingly vote for Kenya Kwanza has become a major talking point at Emurua Dikirr rallies, especially among opposition-leaning leaders.

This issue was amplified by Ruto’s recent remarks during a tour of Bomet county, where he urged more than 2.3 million unregistered Kalenjin voters to register ahead of the 2027 polls.

He said failure by the community to register would force him to seek political support elsewhere.

However, some local leaders interpreted the remarks as reflecting growing anxiety within the ruling camp over waning support in the Rift Valley.

Political analysts believe the by-election could serve as an early indicator of the President’s standing in a region considered his political stronghold.

Primaries fallout

Another factor complicating UDA’s campaign is the fallout from the party primaries held last month.

The nominations pitted Keter against Bernard Ngeno, alias ‘Arap Buluu,’ in a hotly contested race that left deep divisions.

After Keter won, Ngeno and his supporters rejected the outcome, alleging the exercise was neither free nor fair.

Although Ngeno eventually chose not to defect or contest as an independent, many of his supporters reportedly shifted allegiance to Rotich and DCP, especially in areas where Ngeno commanded influence.

Political observers say the unresolved dispute exposed cracks within the UDA’s grassroots structures and weakened party unity ahead of the by-election.

Angata barrikoi

The shadow of the Angata Barrikoi land dispute, which led to the killing of five people, has also featured prominently in campaign rallies.

The thorny dispute over the expansive Transmara/Moyoi/2 land parcel in neighbouring Kilgoris evokes strong emotions among the Kipsigis community.

The conflict, lasting more than three decades, pits the Maasai community under the Ongata Barikoi farmers’ cooperative society against the Kipsigis community represented by the Angata Gaa cooperative society.

While the Maasai claim ownership through title deeds and court rulings, many Kipsigis families continue occupying and cultivating parts of the land, citing ancestral ownership. The dispute has sparked deadly clashes and heightened ethnic tensions.

During campaigns, some residents argued they need a fearless leader capable of defending community interests against alleged land grabbing by influential individuals in government.

Rotich’s supporters have frequently invoked the legacy of former MP Ng’eno, portraying him as a courageous defender of Kipsigis rights who openly confronted powerful leaders over land and governance issues.

The Mau Forest issue has also resurfaced. DCP leaders allied to Gachagua have accused the government of neglecting families evicted from the Mau Forest complex, saying many victims are yet to be fully compensated or resettled years after the evictions.

They argue the community needs leaders willing to push the government on historical injustices affecting thousands of displaced families. The matter remains politically sensitive across the South Rift, where forest evictions continue to influence voting patterns.

Unique seat

Emurua Dikirr occupies a unique position within Narok county as the only constituency represented by a Kipsigis MP. As a result, the MP is traditionally viewed as the political spokesman of the Kipsigis community in the county.

This has elevated the stakes of the by-election beyond ordinary constituency politics. For many voters, the election is about securing strong representation and protecting community interests within Narok’s broader political landscape.

The race also revives a long-running political rivalry between Keter and the deceased MP. Since 2013, Keter unsuccessfully challenged Ng’eno in three consecutive elections, despite Ng’eno contesting under different parties.

In 2013, Ng’eno won under KNC with more than 17,000 votes against Keter’s roughly 7,000 under URP. In 2017, Ng’eno retained the seat on a Kanu ticket with 16,098 votes against Keter’s 13,707 under Jubilee.

In 2022, Ng’eno again defeated Keter on a UDA ticket, garnering 19,958 votes against Keter’s 14,596 as an independent. Ng’eno’s repeated victories demonstrated that his personal influence often outweighed party popularity in the constituency.

Now, with Ng’eno gone, the constituency faces a major political transition.

Final appeals

As campaigns officially ended on Monday, candidates made their final appeals. At Emurua Dikirr school, Keter promised inclusive leadership, youth empowerment and peaceful coexistence among communities.

Meanwhile, Rotich used his final rally at Kiptilongiot grounds to frame the election as a battle for the political survival and voice of the Kipsigis community within Narok county.

He accused the government of intimidating his supporters and called on security agencies and the IEBC to ensure a free and fair election.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

With emotions running high, historical grievances resurfacing, and political loyalties shifting, the Emurua Dikirr by-election is shaping up as one of the most closely watched mini-polls in the Rift Valley. For President Ruto and UDA, the outcome could either reaffirm their dominance in the South Rift or expose growing cracks within one of their most loyal political bases.