2027 race risks turning into cash free-for-all as campaign rules stall

Barely three months remain before the legal deadline of August 9, 2026, for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to gazette campaign spending caps.

Parliament has yet to begin processing the regulations needed to operationalise the law, raising fears of a money-fuelled political free-for-all.

The delay has triggered alarm among governance watchdogs, lawyers and election transparency advocates.

They warn of a repeat of the chaos seen before the 2022 polls, when campaigns ran without enforceable financial controls after MPs rejected similar regulations.

The Election Campaign Financing (ECF) Act, 2013, provides for the regulation of how much candidates and political parties can spend during campaigns.

Its central aim is to shield elections from illicit money, corruption and undue influence.

The law requires the Erastus Ethekon-led IEBC to publish campaign spending limits at least 12 months before a general election.

However, delegated legislation requires pre-publication scrutiny by the National Assembly. The draft must therefore be tabled in the House before publication.

The standing rule states that “any regulation relating to election matters once made by the IEBC must be approved by the House.” For the August 10, 2027 polls, the deadline falls on August 9, 2026.

Parliament is currently on recess until the last week of May, and the National Assembly is expected to prioritise the 2026-27 budget and Finance Bill.

Fears are growing that campaign financing regulations may once again be sacrificed at the altar of political convenience.

Justice and Legal Affairs Committee chairman Gitonga Murugara confirmed that the process has not formally commenced in Parliament.

“It is work in progress on the part of the IEBC,” Murugara told the Star, adding that the regulations had not yet been introduced to Parliament for scrutiny.

Regulations approval is an elaborate process. The Committee on Delegated Legislation is required to oversee it. Anxiety is mounting.

In a recent meeting with MPs, the IEBC said it has already prepared draft Election Campaign Financing Regulations, 2026.

Despite this, parliamentary engagement has not started, eating into the already narrow legal timeline.

Philip Gichana of Mzalendo, one of the petitioners who successfully challenged Parliament’s previous rejection of the rules before the 2022 elections, said the country was staring at a repeat of history.

“I would expect that the IEBC should already have started engagements at this point,” Gichana said.

“Looking at the realities of the parliamentary calendar, there is cause for concern. The attitude towards these instruments has always been the problem. MPs are likely to use the timelines as the justification for not passing the regulations.”

Over the years, there has been significant political resistance to regulating campaign money.

The IEBC first attempted to introduce comprehensive campaign financing regulations in 2016, ahead of the 2017 polls, but the proposals were rejected.

A second attempt came before the 2022 elections. In 2021, the commission proposed spending caps for candidates and political parties, only for the National Assembly to annul the regulations.

This saw the 2022 elections proceed without enforceable spending limits. The IEBC submitted the regulations a few days before the deadline.

Campaigns then morphed into massive cash operations, with wealthy candidates openly spending millions and in some cases billions, with little scrutiny over the source of the money.

Civil society organisations moved to court, arguing that Parliament had unlawfully crippled the law.

Separate petitions were filed by Katiba Institute and AFRICOG, as well as Transparency International Kenya and activist Philip Gichana.

In a landmark judgment, Justice Antony Mrima ruled that Section 29(1) of the ECF Act, which required parliamentary approval before gazetting the regulations, was unconstitutional.

The judge found that the provision violated Article 88(4) of the constitution, which grants the IEBC independent authority to regulate campaign financing and electoral conduct.

Yet, nearly four years later, the system remains in limbo. Critics argue that even after the court decision, Parliament retains enormous power to frustrate implementation through procedural delays.

Gichana believes the timelines embedded in the law were deliberately designed to create loopholes.

“The whole point we have been fighting for is to amend the Act and remove these restrictive timelines,” he said.

“I think it was intentional to put it in the law that the regulations must be published within the set 12 months. Without regulations, the Act becomes practically unimplementable.”

The draft IEBC regulations lay out a detailed formula to control campaign spending across all elective positions.

Under the proposals, the spending cap for a parliamentary candidate forms the base figure from which limits for all other offices are calculated.

The formula factors in campaign costs such as venues, publicity materials, media advertising, campaign staff, transport, security, accommodation and administrative expenses.

Constituencies with populations significantly above or below the national average would have their limits adjusted accordingly. Sparsely populated regions would receive additional allowances based on geographical size.

The cascading formula would then determine limits for governors, MCAs, presidential candidates and political parties. County assembly candidates would be restricted to 30 per cent of the constituency limit. Presidential candidates would be capped at the aggregate national constituency ceiling minus 40 per cent.

The regulations also seek to tighten transparency around fundraising. One provision requires campaign teams to keep records of all Harambee contributors donating more than Sh20,000, including their identities and contribution details. The money would also have to be banked immediately. Supporters say the measures are critical in blocking dirty money from infiltrating politics.

Opponents within political circles argue that the rules are unrealistic, difficult to enforce and discriminatory against candidates, especially in expansive constituencies.

Without gazetted spending limits, the IEBC cannot penalise candidates for excessive campaign expenditure because no enforceable ceiling legally exists.

That loophole could allow proceeds of corruption, organised crime and abuse of state resources to fuel elections.

Election observers warn that in the absence of clear financial controls, wealthy individuals, business cartels and state actors can quietly bankroll candidates.

The IEBC itself acknowledged the danger in a presentation to the National Assembly earlier this year.

It informed lawmakers that the campaign financing framework needed to be fully operational at least two months before August 10, 2026. That leaves Parliament with barely enough time to conduct public participation, committee scrutiny, debate and approval before the legal deadline lapses.

Political temperatures are already rising ahead of 2027, with early campaigns taking shape across the country.

Elog National Coordinator Mule Musau, however, stated that the IEBC needs no MPs’ approval, citing the court ruling that the regulations do not require parliamentary approval.

“IEBC have been given the go-ahead to develop the regulations without the need to go to Parliament, so long as they can subject them to public participation,” he said.

“The risk now is that they have two months before being time-barred by constitutional timelines. If they move quickly, they could address the problem. If they don’t, then the chances of having the most skewed electoral landscape in terms of resources and use of money will be in full display.”

He added, “Illicit financial flows are allowing cross-border penetration and many foreign actors are increasingly influencing electoral processes. We need that regime as soon as possible.”

Analysts say delaying campaign finance controls under such circumstances risks unleashing an unprecedented spending war. As MPs prepare to return from recess and focus on budget politics, the fate of the campaign financing regulations remains uncertain.