Why Kang’ata’s UDA exit could trigger political stampede in Mt Kenya

Analysts warn that Kang’ata’s move could be a catalyst for a mass migration of leaders away from UDA as they seek safer political ground.

They argue that following the governor’s decamping, Ruto’s political grip on the region now appears to be steadily weakening, with a string of key leaders either distancing themselves from UDA or exiting altogether.

Among those who have shifted political ground are Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, Kandara MP Chege Njuguna, Kigumo MP Joseph Munyoro and Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu. All have taken positions considered critical or independent of the ruling party.

Kang’ata’s departure now adds a sitting governor to a growing list of evacuees, amplifying perceptions of a widening falling out.

Muriu told the Star the President lost ground in Mt Kenya the day he backed the impeachment of his then deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

The legislator maintained Ruto’s relationship with Mt Kenya is largely transactional, alleging he pays for attendance at his meetings, and warned that the region could politically mobilise against him and work to make him a one-term president.

“When several leaders from the same region move in the same direction, it is not accidental. It means they are reading the same signals and interpreting them altogether. Politicians don’t gamble, they respond to the mood of their voters,” he said.

Muriu further said Governor Kang’ata’s exit has opened the floodgates for more defections, with governors, senators, MPs and MCAs in the region expected to align with emerging political formations linked to Gachagua.

Kang’ata’s cited deep-seated problems in UDA, what insiders call “forced conformity” and grassroots disillusionment.

He also said that although he has left UDA, he will continue supporting the head of state’s agenda. He denied claims that he plans to join Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party, but some think that link-up is inevitable.

Former Murang’a MCA and political analyst Charles Mwangi said that Kang’ata’s move carries significant political weight and could influence colleagues in the Council of Governors, especially those from the larger Mt Kenya region.

Mwangi added that the governor’s move is not just a personal political decision but a signal of deeper unease within the ruling party’s Mt Kenya base.

“This is how political stampedes begin. It takes one credible insider to make the first move, and suddenly the cost of staying becomes higher than the cost of leaving,” he said. “What Kang’ata has done is remove the psychological barrier that was holding others back.”

He said that some leaders are in UDA out of caution as they wait for the defection window to open, noting that Kang’ata public defection will help to fight the existing fear of defecting from the ruling party.

Mwangi said Kang’ata’s exit is not just symbolic but also represents a potential shift in how elected leaders in the region are recalibrating their political futures.

“There is a problem with UDA in my region. That is the truth,” Kang’ata said, triggering intense debate countrywide.

Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, in a recent television interview, praised Kang’ata for his honesty, saying many UDA leaders privately know they will not contest on the UDA ticket.

He claimed Kang’ata will eventually join former DCP, even as the governor says he is still weighing his political options.

National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah, posting on social media after Kang’ata’s announcement, accused the governor of hypocrisy.

He claimed his exit was linked to failing to secure the DP position after Gachagua’s impeachment in October 2024. He is challenging his removal. Ichung’wah is the Kikuyu MP.

He alleged that Kang’ata had pressured him to influence the President to appoint him DP, a request he said he rejected.

“The kind of pressure you were exerting to be named deputy president… I gave you my piece of my mind on your candidature and the politics of hypocrisy,” Ichung’wah said, emphasising that his position remains unchanged.

Reliable sources have hinted that Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha and his Kiambu counterpart Kimani Wamatangi might also be considering leaving UDA.

During the burial of Ol Kalou MP David Kiaraho, Gachagua said he felt at home when invited to the podium by Governor Badilisha.

“They tried to send Wetang’ula to invite me to the podium but I refused because he is a traitor. They tried MPs but I also refused but I accepted Governor Badilisha because he is ours,” the DCP leader said.

Earlier, Gachagua urged Badilisha to join his political camp or risk losing the 2027 election.

He lectured the governor earlier at a church service, “Kama hautakuja na DCP utakunywa maji asubuhi!”  jipange na Cecile Kariuki tujue ni nani tutapee DCP ticket.” The service was attended by United Opposition leaders.

Badilisha hasn’t publicly declared his political position but has been associating closely with the former DP.

Kiambu Governor Kimani Wamatangi, despite rumours of impending defection from UDA, has said he will not engage in active politics. He said he is focused on delivering services in Kiambu.

The governor said he will venture into the vigourous political competition in April next year, when the elections campaign will officially be announced by IEBC. He said he will use his track record as the basis for his reelection.

“In 2027, I will not face the people with drama and theatrics so that they can re-elect me,” he said. I will showcase my development achievements, and I am sure the people of Kiambu are fair and they will offer us an opportunity to continue with the good work that we have been doing," he added.

Political analyst John Wahinya told the Star the current political tensions are likely to intensify. He said Ruto may be compelled to form a broader coalition similar to the TNA-URP arrangement that led to Jubilee’s victory in 2013.

“These are early warning signs,” he said. “In Kenyan politics, once a few influential figures move, others follow strategically not emotionally, but based on survival mode.” He linked the trend to patterns in the 2022 election wave.

Wahinya said growing anti-UDA sentiment in parts of Mt Kenya - driven by economic concerns, political dissatisfaction and shifting loyalties ¾ is likely to shape future voting patterns.

He said the region, which overwhelmingly backed Ruto in 2022, is showing signs of fragmentation as leaders increasingly chart independent political paths.

“There is a clear shift in tone, with leaders no longer speaking in one voice, reflecting growing underlying discontent,” Wahinya added. He said some Kenya Kwanza-affiliated leaders with their own political parties have avoided publicly endorsing President Ruto’s re-election.

Political analyst Herman Manyora, in a recent radio interview, said Ruto should be concerned about Kang’ata’s move, warning it could trigger mass defections across Mt Kenya.

“Irungu Kang’ata’s exit from UDA is significant and concerning. He could trigger a stampede, and that is what Ruto should be careful about,” he said.

He said the Murang’a county chief, having served as councillor, MP, senator and now governor, is well placed to read the region’s early political signals.

Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, despite recently warming up to Ruto’s camp, is also said to be eyeing the DCP ticket to vie for the Nyeri Senate seat.

Kahiga has been a close Gachagua ally.

“Whether by default or by design, Riggy G (Gachagua) is currently one of the most consequential leaders in the mountain,” Kahiga said in a past interview.

Jubilee deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni, speaking during a radio interview on May 5, acknowledged the shifting political dynamics in Mt Kenya.

He said UDA has lost ground and sarcastically said only Kikuyu MP Ichung’wah would dare contest on a UDA ticket in 2027.

Kioni suggested that a political rebrand within the ruling coalition is inevitable, saying President Ruto is closely monitoring developments.

“I have said it here before, William will not run on a UDA ticket. They will craft another outfit. You cannot run under UDA in Mt Kenya,” Kioni said.

Former Mukurwe-ini MP Kabando wa Kabando, in a statement on his X account on May 4, claimed that Ruto’s defeat is no longer in question.

He said the political conversation has shifted from whether he will lose to who will replace him.

“The question of the day is not if Rais Ruto will be defeated — that is now a forgone conclusion,” Kabando said. “The real question is who will replace him as the 6th President of the Republic of Kenya.”