Ruto courts ODM heavyweights as 2027 realignment fears grow

Details emerging from across the country point to a calculated push by the ruling United Democratic Alliance to chip away at the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) from within.

This is by courting influential leaders and expanding its grassroots footprint in regions long considered opposition bastions.

While no sweeping defections have been formally confirmed, a pattern of political activity and alignments suggests ODM could be facing one of its most significant internal tests in recent years.

Core to the strategy, insiders say, is a focus on having key political figures with strong local influence defect to UDA or support its polity.

The aim is not to get immediate defection, but gradual alignment, thus positioning UDA as a viable alternative ahead of the next election cycle.

The approach is said to be unfolding across ODM’s traditional strongholds, including Nyanza, Coast, Western and parts of Northeastern.

UDA is steadily building networks and testing its appeal in the targeted areas.

In Nyanza, a region that has for decades voted overwhelmingly for ODM, signs of political unease are beginning to show.

Recent events in Homa Bay have brought the tensions into sharp focus.

Governor Gladys Wanga has publicly raised concerns over what she described as attempts by UDA to infiltrate the region, including through what she termed as ‘proxy candidates’.

Her concerns gained traction following President Ruto’s recent visit to the county, where the presence of her estranged deputy Oyugi Magwanga fuelled speculation of shifting alliances behind the scenes.

The political temperature has been further heightened by the activities of former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who has since moved closer to UDA circles and is widely seen as plotting a major political comeback.

While his focus is believed to be Nairobi, his re-entry into active politics has stirred debate in Nyanza about a possible bid for Homa Bay governor.

Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma has also found himself at the centre of the conversation, even as he publicly maintains a firm pro-ODM stance.

For Kaluma, the ideal arrangement would be a negotiated political framework between ODM and UDA to avoid direct competition.

“ODM-UDA coalition will field a single candidate for each seat from the president, governor, MPs to MCAs across Kenya,” he said recently, hinting at ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations.

Despite such proposals, UDA is already said to be lining up potential parliamentary candidates across Nyanza, signalling its intention to directly challenge ODM in its backyard.

Political commentator Joshua Nyamori argues that such competition should not be unexpected.

“ODM and UDA are in the broad-based government and have worked well for the past year. A party that has a stronghold should not fear competition,” he said.

“When the leaders agree on a formula, we will see how to work with it. There will be wide consultations. ODM should not panic because even if UDA doesn’t field, other parties will.”

Still, the emerging contest has unsettled sections of ODM leadership, with Minority leader Junet Mohamed recently alleging that state machinery was being used to pressure some opposition lawmakers to switch sides—claims that have been strongly contested within political circles.

A similar pattern is taking shape in Western, where political alignments are becoming increasingly fluid.

Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula recently crossed over from the Democratic Action Party of Kenya to UDA, a move widely interpreted as part of a broader effort to strengthen the ruling party’s foothold in the region.

The shift has intensified scrutiny on Governor Fernandes Barasa, who has faced speculation about his political future.

However, the governor has dismissed claims of a possible defection, pointing instead to his ongoing efforts to strengthen ODM’s grassroots network.

Barasa nonetheless drew criticism after congratulating a UDA candidate in the West Kabras ward by-election while appearing to sideline his party’s candidate.

He defended his actions, saying his role as governor requires cooperation with the national government.

His deputy has further claimed that several MPs from the region have already begun working with UDA, underscoring the growing complexity of political loyalties.

In neighbouring Busia county, similar dynamics are emerging around Governor Paul Otuoma.

Local political actors suggest that informal arrangements could see UDA play a significant role in future contests in the county, even if candidates retain ODM tickets.

Aspirant Vincent Sidai has alleged the existence of a political scheme aimed at shaping the outcome of upcoming races, though such claims remain unverified.

In Bungoma, the situation points to a shift within the Kenya Kwanza coalition itself.

The position of Ford Kenya, led by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, is increasingly under scrutiny amid signs that UDA is seeking to consolidate dominance in the region.

Political tensions involving Governor Kenneth Lusaka and Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa have raised questions about how seats will be shared within the coalition going forward.

Some observers interpret recent by-election outcomes in the county, including the loss of a Ford Kenya stronghold, as indicative of shifting political ground.

Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga acknowledged the growing influence of UDA, pointing to its financial muscle and expansive networks.

“The President has stronger structures, resources and networks,” he said, adding that parties within the coalition must brace for competitive nominations and elections.

His remarks highlight a broader reality: even within allied parties, UDA’s expansion is creating new political calculations.

At the Coast, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, who remains one of ODM’s most influential figures in the region, is said to be working on an alternative.

Discussions around alternative political formations and future alignments have sparked debate about the region’s long-term direction.

Historically, Coast politics has been less rigidly tied to party identity, with leaders often recalibrating alliances based on evolving national dynamics.

UDA has made steady inroads, leveraging development project promises and strategic partnerships to expand its appeal.

Should ODM weaken further, analysts say, leaders in the region could increasingly adopt flexible political strategies, aligning with emerging formations while maintaining local influence.

Taken together, a strategy that relies less on dramatic defections and more on incremental influence stands out.

By cultivating ties with regional heavyweights, supporting local candidates and embedding itself within grassroots structures, UDA appears to be positioning itself as a competitive force.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has warned that such moves could significantly alter the political landscape if left unchecked.

“The President is likely to consolidate his presence and build long-term political structures in those areas,” he said.

ODM must, therefore, navigate a delicate balance between maintaining unity among its leaders and responding to a rival steadily advancing into its traditional bases.