Inside ODM turmoil over UDA’s expansion into its backyard

At the heart of the dispute is ODM’s insistence that zoning must remain a central pillar of any working arrangement with President William Ruto.

The party views areas such as Nyanza, Western and the Coast as its political base and is pushing to shield them from what it terms 'encroachment' by UDA.

ODM leaders argue that preserving these zones is critical to maintaining the party’s identity and bargaining power in any coalition or cooperation framework ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The tension played out publicly when ODM national chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga issued a stern warning against what she described as growing political provocation in her backyard.

“I want to make it very clear that Homa Bay County and the entire region is an ODM zone,” Wanga said. “And the next time I see what happened at a funeral where my party leader was present, and some people were shouting UDA, we will not agree, accept it- it will not happen under my watch.”

She added, “We do not want disrespect, and you can see we are quiet. We want to get to the bottom of this matter.”

In a strongly worded statement, Wanga vowed to defend the party’s dominance at all costs.

“I want to say this is an ODM zone, and we will protect ODM with our lives. We will protect our party leader, Oburu Odinga, with our lives. We will protect the party with whatever it takes, and if you dare us, I will tell you, bring it on,” she said.

However, resistance to zoning is also emerging from within UDA ranks, particularly in ODM strongholds such as Homa Bay.

A group of local women leaders recently declared that they want UDA candidates fielded for all elective seats, including governor, MP, MCA, Senate and Woman Representative positions.

The dispute has also drawn in National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, who is reportedly unhappy with UDA’s expansion plans in ODM-dominated regions.

Junet has further alleged that some senior government officials are coercing ODM lawmakers to defect to UDA with promises of campaign funding—claims that could deepen mistrust between the two sides.

Political analyst Joseph Mutua says the standoff reflects a broader strategic calculation by ODM.

“The insistence by ODM that UDA should not field candidates in its traditional strongholds signals a high-stakes political strategy ahead of the 2027 elections,” Mutua said.

“ODM appears keen to avoid internal competition that could split votes in its bases, especially if it is to enter or sustain any form of cooperation with UDA at the national level,” he added.

According to Mutua, zoning would help ODM preserve its influence while minimising electoral risks. However, he cautioned that the approach raises democratic concerns.

“Critics argue that restricting parties from fielding candidates undermines multiparty democracy and the rights of voters to choose from a full range of candidates,” he said. “It could be perceived as an attempt to create political monopolies in certain regions.”

Amid the escalating tensions, Ruto has sought to calm the situation, pledging to rein in his allies accused of fueling the rivalry.

“I will stop those trying to create conflict between ODM and UDA,” Ruto said during a development tour in Kisii. He added that he is committed to strengthening the broad-based political arrangement as the country heads toward 2027.

ODM deputy party leader and Kisii Governor Simba Arati has also called on the President to address what he termed as “friendly fire” between the two parties.

Meanwhile, UDA’s recent declaration that it will field candidates in all elective seats across six Coast counties-Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta, and Tana River-has been interpreted by ODM as a direct political challenge that could reshape the electoral landscape.

In Mombasa, UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar is already positioning himself for the gubernatorial race, setting the stage for a potential showdown with incumbent ODM Governor Abdulswamad Nassir.

Speaking at Burhani sports ground in Mombasa during a UDA sensitisation forum on April 7, Omar said UDA will reject zoning, saying the party has done a good enough job to warrant re-election for any of its candidates.

UDA, he said, has 16,000 aspirants across the country, and no one will be refused a chance to vie for any seat on the basis of zoning.

“Anyone who wants to vie for any seat in any UDA stronghold is welcome to vie. There is no zoning,” Omar said.

Likewise, he said, UDA should be allowed to vie for any seat in any part of the country, no matter the political inclination of the area.

“If it is your stronghold, why are you worried about another aspirant from another party?” he posed.

“If you believe residents of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Mombasa, Lamu and Taita Taveta are your supporters, why don’t you believe in yourself?” Omar said.

He accused ODM of being biased against UDA, saying they have no problem with other parties, including DCP and Wiper, having candidates in Mombasa, yet they have a problem with UDA having candidates  in the county.

This comes a day after ODM Deputy Party leader Abdulswamad Nassir accused the UDA brigade of undermining the broad-based arrangement.

Speaking in Dabaso, Kilifi county, during the burial of Kilifi North MP Owen Baya’s mother, Dorothy Baya on April 6, the Mombasa governor said he has no problem whether there is zoning or not.

His problem, he said, is with the lack of unity in the broad-based government, which he said derails service delivery to the common mwananchi.

 “Why don’t we, now that we are in the broad-based government, look for ways in which Sha can benefit all our people? Is it wrong for us to work together and ensure our youth get jobs?

“Despite our different political parties, can’t we work together to see how we can bring resources to our counties at the Coast?” Nassir said.

Nassir said nothing stops the Coast politicians from working together now that there is a broad-based arrangement.

“The Swahili people say, if it takes you across the ocean, don’t call it just a log. Today, we have not even crossed the ocean, and already we have started branding each other logs,” Nassir said in a thinly veiled attack on the UDA brigade.