Ruto’s zoning dilemma: ODM demands put 2027 strategy on the line

President William Ruto is facing a delicate political balancing act over the contentious issue of zoning, a debate that could significantly shape the trajectory of his re-election bid.

The insistence by ODM that zoning must be entrenched as a core pillar of any pre-election pact with UDA has placed the head of state in a tight corner.

While zoning arrangements could help cement a strategic alliance between the two parties, they also risk alienating UDA’s grassroots supporters and aspirants, who are keen to compete freely across the country.

ODM considers regions such as Nyanza, Western and the Coast as its traditional strongholds and is keen to shield them from what it sees as encroachment by UDA.

The party argues that preserving these zones is essential to maintaining its political identity and bargaining power in any coalition arrangement.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo notes that conceding these regions would weaken ODM’s standing.

“For ODM, giving up its strongholds would undermine its identity and negotiating leverage,” Orogo said. However, he observed that UDA’s contrasting approach is driven by its ambition to transform into a truly national party.

“UDA’s push to field candidates across the country is rooted in its desire to expand its footprint and avoid being confined to perceived bases,” Orogo added.

“This fundamental difference in approach creates a potential fault line in any alliance talks.”

The debate has gained momentum in recent weeks, with ODM leaders taking an increasingly hardline stance.

Speaking last weekend, ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga insisted that the party would only engage in negotiations with UDA on the same level.

“If we are going for negotiations, we are going as equal partners, not as a weaker party,” Wanga said, signalling ODM’s firm position ahead of any possible coalition talks.

Her remarks were echoed by a section of ODM lawmakers, who warned that the party would not tolerate UDA fielding candidates in areas it considers its political bastions.

=Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi was particularly emphatic, declaring zoning a non-negotiable issue.

“We are ready to die for zoning. There is no negotiation when it comes to zoning. We are not going to allow UDA to plant candidates in Luo Nyanza and other ODM strongholds,” he said.

The dispute has been further escalated by UDA’s aggressive grassroots mobilisation, particularly in the Coast region.

During a recent tour, UDA officials announced plans to field candidates for all elective seats across the six counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Tana River.

The move has been interpreted by ODM as a direct political challenge that could reshape the electoral landscape.

In Mombasa, UDA secretary general Hassan Omar is already positioning himself for the gubernatorial race, setting up a potential showdown with incumbent ODM Governor Abdulswamad Nassir.

Within ODM, however, divergent views are beginning to emerge.

Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo has urged caution, questioning whether zoning aligns with democratic principles and the party’s long-standing strengths.

“I don’t know if there is an official position by the party on the matter, but my personal position is that ODM is a popular party and we have always declared it is the largest party in the country,” she said.

 “ODM is strong and has always managed to successfully field candidates without any form of zoning. Perhaps there may be silent agreements in urban areas like Nairobi, but there has never been a need for zoning for ODM.”

Odhiambo added that pushing zoning could send the wrong message to voters.

“When we start pushing zoning, it means that we are putting our personal interests ahead of our constituents. If I have worked for my constituents, I should not fear competition,” she said.

Meanwhile, resistance to zoning is also emerging from within UDA ranks, particularly in ODM strongholds such as Homa Bay, where local UDA members have rejected calls for restricted competition.

Political commentator Joseph Mutua warned that if mishandled, the zoning dispute could unravel the fragile cooperation between Ruto and ODM, with far-reaching consequences.

“ODM pulling out of a deal would not only deny Ruto access to a vast and loyal voter base, but also potentially re-energise opposition forces against him,” Mutua said.

“Such a scenario could recreate the very political dynamics that Ruto has been working hard to neutralise: an energised, united opposition with a clear regional stronghold advantage.”

Mutua further cautioned that the optics of the decision could be just as consequential as the substance itself.

“Should Ruto concede too much to ODM, he risks backlash from UDA loyalists who may feel shortchanged and sidelined. On the other hand, rejecting zoning outright could be interpreted by ODM as bad faith,” he said.

“This balancing act requires careful negotiation, strategic compromise and clear communication to both parties’ supporters.”

As the debate intensifies, it is becoming increasingly clear that the stakes for Ruto are exceptionally high. A collapsed deal with ODM could fragment his support base, complicate his re-election strategy and open the door for a formidable opposition coalition.