Expert Comment : Ford Kenya folding ups Ruto reelection chances, bargaining power

Historically, he managed to convince Uhuru Kenyatta to fold TNA, URP and other parties to form a strong Jubilee. It is because they wanted to win more seats for Jubilee at that time. This is the scenario that is being replayed here, that the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is better and stronger when it forms one stronger party.

Just as was the case in the run-up to the 2017 election, the merger saw them form a stronger Jubilee, which was a bigger machine that ended up winning the election. It also helps UDA consolidate its strengths in Parliament. When you have many parties in a coalition, there is a chance that the dominant party will be denied the numerical strength. A pre-election coalition helps solve this.

Probably what the President wants is for parties that are in Kenya Kwanza to form a strong coalition party that can negotiate better. There have also been discussions about zoning. So when Ford Kenya, like ANC, folds, they are better placed for the scramble for Western Kenya.

For now, ANC is not in Western, and UDA is emerging as the stronger alternative, as we saw in the Malava MP by-election. It was not won by DAP Kenya or Ford Kenya, but a stronger team of UDA, combining forces with the grassroots networks of the defunct ANC party.

In going as a united front, UDA will be better placed to counter and face the DAP party. The unity could go a long way to deny the united opposition an inch of Western Kenya. A stronger political unit will be easy to finance and will help Ruto to be stronger against parties, including ODM.

UDA, in coming out as one united front with its partner parties, will also increase Ruto’s bargaining power when he sits to negotiate with ODM.

Political scientist spoke to the Star