Kenya is expected to experience a largely dry end to the year, with the weatherman forecasting near-average to below-average rainfall across most parts of the country in December.
The latest outlook to cover December 1 to December 31 from the Kenya Meteorological Department, released on November 30, signals a muted close to the October–November–December (OND) short rains season, which has already performed poorly in many regions.
According to the report, large sections of the country, especially the northern and coastal regions, will continue to record generally suppressed rainfall.
The department attributes this to prevailing regional and global climate drivers that have kept much of the country dry despite the season’s historical wet profile.
However, the Met Department notes that isolated incidents of heavy rainfall may still occur, particularly in western Kenya and parts of the southeastern lowlands, driven by localised weather systems.
“The rainfall distribution, both in time and space, is expected to be poorly distributed with prolonged dry spells,” the report says.
Nairobi, the central highlands, and much of eastern Kenya are expected to receive only light rains, if any, with the forecast indicating warmer-than-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures across many counties.
Looking ahead, the department warns that the December 2025 to February 2026 period will be characterised by generally sunny and dry conditions, especially in January and February.
This is likely to affect most regions except parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the highlands west of the Rift Valley, and isolated sections of the southeastern lowlands, which may still receive occasional rainfall.
The seasonal dryness will be most prominent in Nairobi, Mount Kenya region, the South Rift Valley, the Southern Rift Valley and eastern Kenya.
Temperatures during this period are expected to remain near-normal to slightly above average, raising concerns for communities already grappling with water shortages, heat stress, and the residual effects of poor October-November-December rains.
The November climate review paints an even clearer picture of the unfolding dry spell. The month, which is typically one of the wettest during the
