Although the President has not indicated any intention to drop Kithure Kindiki, the unfolding regional political arithmetic suggests a tough balancing act ahead.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is the third senior most executive in President Ruto’s administration, could be elevated to manage dynamics in Western region, where DAP-K is having a growing influence.
Other leaders floated as possible running mate to Ruto include Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Mining CS Hassan Joho and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
Analysts say the choice will depend on regional vote blocs, coalition stability and the ability of potential candidates to demonstrate real electoral influence.
Political commentator Joseph Mutua says those eyeing the position are now engaged in an unofficial audition.
“Public rallies, political endorsements and by-election performance have all turned into subtle audition platforms as leaders seek to prove their electoral value,” he said.
Mutua opined that the burden lies on those angling for the powerful seat to demonstrate they can deliver votes in Mt Kenya, the Rift Valley, Western Kenya or the Coast.
He, for instance, noted that the Mbeere North by-election was a critical test for Kindiki.
The win in Mbeere North through Leo wa Muthende reaffirms Kindiki’s influence in Mt Kenya East and strengthens his political momentum heading into 2027.
He added that had he lost the seat to DP’s Newton Karish, the United Opposition candidate, it would have dealt him a significant blow to him, especially given his DP standing. This, he noted, would have narrowed his leverage within Kenya Kwanza at a time when succession politics are intensifying.
“A setback would have given rivals ammunition to argue that he cannot reliably deliver votes or consolidate regional support,” Mutua said.
Meanwhile, ODM — with its clear sweep in its strongholds — appears determined to shape the conversation from outside the ruling coalition.
Some key senior ODM figures have maintained the party would only consider supporting Ruto’s re-election in any future political arrangement if offered the deputy presidency.
They argue that ODM’s organisational strength and national
reach give it the bargaining power needed to demand a top-tier position rather
than accept symbolic inclusion.
Nyaribari Masaba MP Daniel Manduku, however, argues the internal divisions within ODM could also influence the 2027 equation.
Manduku says that Ruto would prefer a fragmented ODM that
cannot issue strong demands.
“Naturally, if we remain united we’ll make a lot of unreasonable demands. One such demand has already been made—that in 2027, his running mate must come from ODM,” he said.
A divided ODM would make it easier for Ruto to negotiate with individual leaders rather than confront a united front, Manduku added.
He, however, revealed t he is unlikely to run on an ODM
ticket in 2027, and will instead align himself with any party headed by former
Interior CS Fred Matiang’i.
“It will be easier for me because that is the pulse of the Gusii nation,” he said.
The Malava by-election was also a major test for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is the third senior most executive in President Ruto’s administration.
UDA’s David Ndakwa win in Malava, a race that is widely seen as favourite for DAP’s Seth Panyako, gives Mudavadi bragging rights in Western and boosts his bargaining power within Kenya Kwanza.
A loss would have been a serious setback—casting doubt on his influence in the region and weakening his chances of being elevated to the DP position.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, on the other hand, has predicted that Kindiki will not be on the 2027 ticket—even with the win in Mbeere North.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei recently triggered sharp reactions when he said the presidency and deputy presidency “are already taken,” arguing that Kindiki deserves the number two slot for standing with Ruto.
The remarks drew a sharp response from ODM leaders, who dismissed the suggestion and questioned the basis of such early declarations.
As political temperatures rise and by-elections continue to
serve as testing grounds, the battle for the deputy presidency is expected to
intensify further.
