Bigwigs take over: By-elections turn into early 2027 power showdown

The forthcoming by-elections across the country are increasingly shaping up as contests between political heavyweights rather than the candidates themselves.

In many regions, top national figures have overshadowed the aspirants they are backing, dominating campaign trails as they sweep through villages and towns to rally support.

Campaign messages have also shifted sharply toward the 2027 General Election, with the rhetoric of “one-term” and “two-term” presidencies taking centre stage.

The November 27 mini-polls have become a testing ground for major political leaders eager to demonstrate their influence, popularity and organisational strength ahead of the next national vote.

On the ground, stump speeches by senior politicians have focused less on local issues and more on the ambitions of national bigwigs.

References to the 2027 presidential plans are now more frequent than mentions of what party candidates hope to deliver to their wards or constituencies.

President William Ruto’s UDA Party is using the Mbeere by-election as a key indicator of its standing in the Mt Kenya region.

The party has fronted Leo Muthende against the opposition-backed Newton Karish of the Democratic Party (DP).

In Nyamira, the name of Jubilee Deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i has loomed large in campaigns for the three ward by-elections in Nyansiongo, Ekerenyo and Nyamaiya.

His allies have framed the contests as early signals of support for Matiang’i’s possible 2027 ambitions.

In Magarini, ODM has printed campaign posters for its candidate Harrison Kombe featuring the images of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir.

Wanga is the ODM national chairperson, while Nassir is one of the party’s deputy leaders.

UDA and its partners in the broad-based government have also intensified activities in Homa Bay’s Kasipul and Siaya’s Ugunja constituencies, running empowerment programmes that doubled as campaign platforms for ODM candidates. However, most of the messaging focused on Ruto’s re-election bid.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka summed up the nationalised nature of the by-elections when he pleaded with supporters not to “embarrass” his 2027 presidential ambitions by rejecting his party’s candidate in Mumbuni North ward, Machakos county.

“If Wiper loses the Mumbuni North ward seat, they will say ‘Kalonzo wants to be President when he cannot deliver a ward seat’,” he told supporters last Tuesday. “Save me from the embarrassment. They have set a trap, help me jump it.”

Wiper’s candidate Anthony Kisoi is battling Harrison Wambua of MCC and UDA’s Misi Mutua.

His candidacy has drawn strong backing from area leaders.

Governor Wavinya Ndeti and Senator Agnes Kavindu both said a win for Kisoi would be a victory for Kalonzo as he positions himself for 2027.

“We will vote for Anthony Kisoi. I’m asking all those in other political parties, why are you betraying the Kamba community?” Ndeti asked, terming the by-election a “definitive moment” for Kalonzo.

In Malava, Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula, who also serves as DAP-K’s deputy party leader, has defied his party to endorse UDA’s David Ndakwa.

Meanwhile, area senator and UDA chief whip Boni Khalwale is vigorously campaigning for the opposition-backed candidate Seth Panyako.

“I have decided to support Ndakwa, who is the Kenya Kwanza candidate, in the spirit of the broad-based government,” Savula said.

In Nyamira’s Nyansiongo ward, Matiang’i allies, led by MPs Patrick Osero (Borabu), Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South) and Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba), have told voters that supporting a UDA candidate would amount to rejecting “their son’s” presidential prospects.

That narrative is being challenged by Ruto’s allies, including Japhet Nyakundi (Kitutu Chache North) and Nyamira Woman Representative Jerusha Momanyi.

“This by-election is not about Ruto versus Matiang’i,” Momanyi said of the Ekerenyo ward contest, urging voters to focus on the party candidate.

In Baringo, Ruto has moved to consolidate his grip on the region after convincing Kanu’s Gideon Moi to drop his bid to reclaim a seat he lost three years ago in favour of UDA’s Kiprono Chemitei.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also inserted himself into the by-election politics, signalling the simmering rivalry with Ruto. He has planned a week-long campaign blitz in Mbeere North, where he is backing DP’s Newton Karish.

On Wednesday, Gachagua wrote a demand letter to Inspector-General of Police Douglas Kanja, alleging a plot to orchestrate violence in favour of UDA and calling for arrests.

UDA swiftly hit back, accusing the DCP leader of “seeking sympathy through the dramatisation of the by-election campaigns”.

As the by-elections draw closer, the battles appear less about local representation and more about the political futures of Kenya’s most powerful figures, turning ward and constituency races into early referendums on 2027 alignments.