By-election test for Ruto’s 2027 bid as opposition plots downfall

The November 27 by-elections are shaping up into a critical political litmus test for President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, with the spotlight on the Mbeere North and Malava races.

Political analysts say the two parliamentary by-elections are likely to define Ruto’s hold on two key vote bases in 2027 race: Mt Kenya and Western.

While contests in Magarini (Kilifi), Kasipul (Homa Bay) and Banisa (Mandera) appear predictable, with ODM and UDA expected to retain their dominance, the Mbeere North and Malava races carry broader political implications far beyond filling the positions.

In Mt Kenya, Mbeere North has become a battlefield between UDA and the “United Opposition” to test the region’s shifting loyalties.

The vote-rich region, which in the 2022 election voted for Ruto almost to a man, has since the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua rebelled and become hostile.

This means Ruto risks losing a critical vote base, throwing his game of numbers off balance.

A win for UDA will offer Ruto the much-needed boost, signalling that he retains a foothold in the region and giving his camp renewed momentum heading into 2027.

However, a loss would be politically disastrous, reinforcing perceptions that Ruto has lost control of Mt Kenya.

This is a region that decisively delivered Ruto’s 2022 victory despite the stand taken by then President Uhuru Kenyatta. A loss would, thus, not only embolden the opposition but also deepen divisions within UDA over individual political survival in the region.

Indictive of the stakes at hand, the President has dispatched Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku to lead the campaigns. Ruku is backed by UDA chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, MPs Gitonga Murugara (Tharaka) and former area MP and the President’s special adviser Muriuki Njagagua.

For the opposition, a victory would mark a symbolic breakthrough in a region long dominated by Ruto’s allies, including DP Kithure Kindiki, CS Ruku and Governor Mbarire.

A win would also position the opposition alliance as a credible threat for the President in the region, coming on the heels of his claim that only Raila Odinga stood a chance to challenge him in 2027.

“What we are doing [settling on joint opposition candidates] is a dress rehearsal of what we are going to do to send Ruto home in 2027,” Gachagua said.

Political analyst and governance expert Bosco Kiura says the politics of Mbeere North, previously Siakago, is unique as it is not centred on a political party but clannism.

He says the by-election will be a litmus test for Gachagua and Kindiki, and by extension Ruto.

“You recall the fight between Gachagua and Kindiki about Mt Kenya West and East. Whoever wins will have a point to prove and say, I am the one with this ground,” Kiura, who served as an adviser to former Embu Governor Martin Wambora, says.

He adds that whichever way it goes, it will have casualties nationally and locally, and have implications on the county elections in 2027.

“If you don’t understand this politics, you are out. And people such as JB Muturi, Lenny Kivuti and Jeremiah Nyaga know how to manoeuvre around it very well as they have used it to their advantage previously.”

 

WESTERN

The stakes are equally high in Malava, where the President’s aide, Farouk Kibet, has been camping for weeks.

The race pits UDA against DAP-K, a party allied with the opposition and seen as a major challenger to Ruto’s Western base.

Western was contested in 2022, when Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance, buoyed by the support of PCS Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, made inroads in the region traditionally supportive of Raila.

If UDA clinches Malava, it will signal that Ruto’s partnership with Mudavadi and Wetang’ula still holds sway, maintaining the region as a bloc safely in Kenya Kwanza’s basket.

Such a result would also quiet dissent within the ruling coalition and bolster Mudavadi’s political stock as a key pillar of Ruto’s 2027 strategy. Mudavadi has been another key campaigner in Malava.

Conversely, a UDA defeat and a DAP-K victory for Seth Panyako would point to waning government influence in the region and a vote of confidence in the opposition.

It would also raise questions about whether Ruto’s Western allies can still deliver votes in 2027 under the siege of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Political commentator Hermann Manyora argues that the Malava contest is as good as done.

“With Governor Natambeya in Malava, there will be no contest. Seth Panyako with have UDA’s David Ndakwa for breakfast,” he says.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi (ODM) believes that any candidate in Malava aligning with the government is unlikely to make it.

“There is a resistance of Kenya Kwanza government on the ground, including Malava,” he said.

“Farouk Kibet has been throwing money in Malava but it has done nothing on the ground. Malava is going to vote against anything related to [President] William Ruto.”

In Magarini, ODM is widely expected to retain its hold, although the outcome will signal the level of influence ODM and UDA have in the Coast.

The constituency has long been an ODM bastion, and a victory there would merely reaffirm its influence backed by UDA in their broad-based arrangement.

Meanwhile, in Banisa, the ruling coalition remains favoured as the Northeastern region has historically leaned toward the government of the day.

While Magarini and Banisa are unlikely to produce surprises, the outcomes in Mbeere North and Malava could reshape political narratives across the country.