The Mbeere North parliamentary by-election has turned into a high-stakes political battle that will be a litmus test for President William Ruto and former DP Rigathi Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region.
The two camps have taken the gloves off, readying for the gruelling battle that will determine who the king of the mountain is.
The United Opposition has backed the Democratic Party candidate, Newton Karish, while the ruling UDA is behind Leonard Muthende.
President William Ruto has already dispatched Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku to lead the campaigns against his predecessor and former party leader, Justin Muturi.
The symbolism of victory is clear: a win for UDA would strengthen Ruto’s foothold in Mt Kenya, while defeat could embolden the United Opposition and accelerate the new political realignment in the Mt Kenya region.
The race has been complicated by the fact that each ward in Mbeere North has a candidate. Evurore has Duncan Mbui (CCK), while Nthawa has Muthende (UDA) and Muminji has Karish (DP).
And while Muturi and Lenny Kivuti come from the same area as Mbui, they have backed a candidate from Muminji, which has the least number of votes.
Evurore ward has about 26,000 voters, Muminji 9,000 voters and Nthawa 18,000. As campaigns intensify, observers say the by-election is likely to test not only the strength of UDA’s grassroots network but also the depth of Gachagua’s popularity in the restive region that helped propel Ruto to power.
It is a contest that may well set the tone for Mt Kenya politics in the run-up to 2027. The two camps have solidified their campaign teams, with Karish getting huge backing from former Senator Lenny Kivuti and firebrand youthful Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji.
Mukunji had previously thrown his weight behind Mbui, who decamped to CCK after missing the DCP ticket. But on Tuesday, he backed Karish in a meeting convened by Gachagua and Muturi.
For Gachagua and Muturi, victory for Karish would not only symbolise their grip on the mountain but also mark the first step towards reshaping Mt Kenya’s fate in 2027.
Speaking on Wednesday after Karish presented his nomination papers to the IEBC, Muturi termed his candidacy a movement.
“The people of Mbeere North are done with brokers and briefcase leaders. They want action, integrity and truth in leadership, and Karish embodies exactly that. The wind of change is blowing, and it’s unstoppable,” Muturi said.
Ruku, on the other hand, is leading the government machinery to secure the seat, which he held until his appointment to the Cabinet, for UDA.
Other than launching projects in the area, Ruku is also reportedly distributing food in the constituency. He has come under fire from Muturi and Kivuti over claims that he is using state projects and resources to campaign for Muthende.
Muturi and Kivuti have also accused government operatives of plotting to ferry in voters from outside Embu county in a bid to tilt the results.
The former National Assembly Speaker has demanded close monitoring of the voter register and polling logistics, calling the by-election “a test of IEBC’s credibility and the will of the people”.
But Ruku has dismissed the rigging claims as propaganda, saying his opponents are spreading panic because they “already sense defeat”.
“The people of Mbeere North are wise enough to decide for themselves,” Ruku said during a meeting. “These are the same leaders crying foul because they know they have lost ground. And they have started crying too early.”
Analysts say the race is more about political supremacy, with both sides seeking to prove they still hold sway in Mt Kenya.
“This is no longer a local election, it’s a barometer of who truly commands the mountain,” political analyst Dr Charles Ngunjiri said, adding that a loss for UDA would be interpreted as a rejection of Ruto’s influence in the Mt Kenya region, particularly in the Eastern part, where his deputy Kithure Kindiki and UDA chairperson Governor Cecily Mbarire hail from.
DP Kinndiki last month hosted 4,500 grassroots women from Mbeere North and urged them to support Muthende “to continue the good work which had been initiated by Ruku”.
The by-election has also triggered realignments among smaller parties, with Moses Kuria’s CCK and Jimi Wanjigi’s Safina Party also presenting candidates in the race.
