AJUOK: Return of Uhuru and how it shapes Kenya’s politics in the short term

This country has had five presidents since independence. My favourite is Uhuru Kenyatta. And that is because, in my view, he was the only one who ever acknowledged and tried to address the “original sin” of the nation, namely the breakdown of ethnic relations that gave rise to the divisions, marginalisation and attendant stunted development that both tend to cause. In supporting Raila Odinga, the long-term hate figure of his Kikuyu people, for President in the 2022 election, the former president made the toughest call of any leader in this country in 70 years.

It was a decision fraught with political risks, especially given that the opponent on the ballot was someone he had warned his community to seriously beware of. It was evident that Uhuru’s own political and state systems, made up of power wielders from his community, were uncomfortable with the proposition, but their boss obviously underestimated the entrenched sociocultural and political hate that been manufactured, for decades, and indoctrinated among his people, against the ODM leader and the latter’s Luo community. The project failed.

In subsequent months and years, some of Raila’s own supporters have generously made the claim that Uhuru had all along been engaged on a “long con” game, supposedly working with his estranged deputy, William Ruto, while taking the ODM boss for a ride. I have never bought this claim. The passion with which the former President worked to stop the ascendancy of Ruto to the presidency, and the consistent warnings to his people, are things which wouldn’t possibly be used to mask a con game. I am persuaded that Uhuru meant it, and loved the nation enough to risk a move like this.

Last weekend, the former president reappeared, in full political force, at his Jubilee party’s National Delegates Conference. After he spoke, both the government and the opposition seemed angry with him. Government functionaries and the regime’s notorious social media hashtag warriors were enraged by Uhuru’s comparison of certain gains from his rule that he thinks have been negated by the Ruto government.

The opposition, led by impeached DP Rigathi Gachagua, on its part, was apprehensive that Uhuru’s re-entry into the country’s politics, while appearing to back his former Interior CS, Fred Matiangi, rather than join forces with Gachagua in a desired Mount Kenya movement, would help divide the region and play into the hands of Ruto. However, in his speech at the Jubilee function, the former President seemed to dismiss Gachagua and his movement wholesale.

I have stated before that, whatever faults one may find with Uhuru, the one thing that is certain is that he has always loved the country and put it first, before any other considerations. This is an alien gospel to the Gachagua choir. The truth being that outside his adoring Kikuyu base, Gachagua is largely a despicable, detestable and divisive character. If anything, I suspect that his unending political and tribal rhetoric only aims to create the conditions and environment for the election of as many MPs on his party in 2027, from his region, being numbers with which he can blackmail the next president into making concessions for him, the way he did with President Ruto in the early days of this regime.

The lesson for the impeached DP is simple; even those who seek alliances with his Kikuyu community need a good Kikuyu, not a divisive one fuelled by tribal rhetoric like him. And indeed, Uhuru is a good one, someone with whom other regions would readily make deals. In fact, if it turns out that Uhuru prefers Matiang’i for president in 2027, one electoral cycle after his unequivocal support for Raila in 2022, he will have vindicated himself as the “good Kikuyu” whose vision and foresight transcends ethnic boundaries, something I believe Gachagua will never master in his entire life.

I am excited by the return of Uhuru because he will most likely accord the nation a third force in the 2027 election. In fact, the more difficult it becomes to tell where ODM stands, as the long-term distinct voice of the oppressed, the more voters orphaned by ODM’s capitulation in government will look up to Uhuru for direction. The former president was in power just three years ago, so his tentacles still run deep within the financial, political and security networks that run the country. I am certain that those who dismiss him do so at their own peril.

Jubilee is yet to state unequivocally that it will present Matiang'i as its presidential candidate in 2027. But if they do, they need to find a way to make him a bit more exciting on the political trail than he already is. His speeches are flat, and in a country where aesthetics matter, he dances like a man undergoing a seizure of some sort. Besides, his dismissal of accusations of police brutality during his reign as Interior CS, especially the sticky issue of the River Yala bodies, is too casual. I think the former CS and his team must address this latter matter conclusively, and stop assuming that it will just go away.

There is yet another tricky proposition coming up. Uhuru may have the financial might or political networks, but his ‘project’ will need either Raila’s bases and mobilisation skills, or the nascent opposition movement that includes Gachagua, to make a proper stab at the presidency in 2027. Additionally, since Matiang’i comes from a smaller community, away from the three that tend to define the destiny of elections, this team must rope in one or two of the major ethnic bases, by roping it their influential leaders into the project.

But there is danger in well-laid plans becoming apparent too soon. If the formation is done too early, it will become too easy to scuttle. However, too late also may mean activating a formation when the people have already been lost to more organised opponents. My experience is that the winning party or coalition, or any consequential electoral movement, since 2002, is usually cobbled up as a last-minute venture. This narrative would fit neatly into how the Narc Rainbow coalition came into being in 2002, the origins of both ODM and PNU in 2007, as well as the quick-fix coalition arrangements that have been reached in subsequent elections.

Based on the foregoing, the party or coalition that will win the 2027 election, or the ones that will give it a run for its money on the ballot, will become clearer just a few months to the election. But while we wait for that, there is comfort to be drawn from the return of Uhuru to the political scene, to become one of those who seek to steer the political platform ahead of what may possibly be the most divisive election yet. This comfort, I submit, is based on the overriding fact that the former president, regardless of his faults, has shown over and over again that he cares enough for the country to err on the side of statesmanship, rather than swim with the popular tribal wave. At a time when such statesmanship and wisdom are critical to the survival of the nation, and the future stability of our democracy, I am overjoyed to him return as a frontline player in the pre-election season. It can only get better from here.