KANYADUDI: Ruto’s turf intact as opposition struggles to unite

DCP Party Leader Rigathi Gachagua when he inaugurated the North Pacific Chapter Satellite Office, marking a milestone in the journey to connect and serve Kenyans across the region /HANDOUT

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s trip to the United States was expected to ignite public excitement. However, it turns out there was more hype than substance.

The meetings he attended in a number of cities appear to have had good numbers of people from his entourage from Kenya. Gachagua left Kenya on Wednesday night for the US, saying his two-month visit was aimed at engaging with Kenyans in the diaspora and other international stakeholders.

The trip marks Gachagua’s first travel abroad since his removal from office in October 2024. He now leads the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) and will visit Dallas, California, Seattle, Boston and Baltimore to market the new political outfit.

The former DP announced he would hold town hall meetings and attend social gatherings to promote his agenda for the diaspora community. The trip is conceived to respond to critics labelling him a local and sometimes, cynically, village politician.

The trip was to provide the opportunity to spread his tentacles internationally by engaging the diaspora and bringing it into the opposition movement fold. He is also expected to interact with selected American businesspeople and investors in a broader campaign to position the opposition as a viable alternative in the run-up to the 2027 general election.

It is meant to initiate fundraising and networks necessary for a presidential election campaign. The trip has remained largely uneventful, and the anticipated ecstasy generally muted.

The meetings, however, drew a diverse crowd, with many attendees eager to hear his vision for the country and the role he envisions for the diaspora in shaping Kenya’s future.

Gachagua’s tour has come just days after Matiang’i took his 2027 presidential bid to the international stage over the weekend with a series of diaspora engagements, starting with a town hall meeting in Irving, Texas. In a spirited event at DFW (Dallas Fort Worth) Celebrations, Matiang’i was warmly received by Kenyans living in the area.

Serious presidential candidates in Kenya have made it a tradition to get the support and goodwill of Kenyans living abroad. Raila Odinga had the first elaborate international networks for his campaigns in 2007.

The networks were headquartered in London and heavily influenced the progress of the campaign against President Mwai Kibaki who was seeking reelection after the 2005 referendum debacle.

He would repeat the engagements in 2013 whilst running against Uhuru Kenyatta and running mate William Ruto. Both were facing charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague. In 2022, Ruto took his cue from Raila’s overseas campaigning and was the first to address an intellectual congregation at Chatham House in London.

It is an international affairs think tank with a royal charter. Raila had to engage in catch up and later had a similar event at the venue but Ruto’s persuasive rhetorical skills had tilted the scales there. It is this well-trodden path that Gachagua seeks to take in his US tour.

Gachagua’s solo activities have lately rubbed his coalition’s would-be partners the wrong way. Bandying about the dominant Kikuyu vote numbers, the former deputy president has taken every step to position himself as the first among equals in the envisaged coalition.

He has thus become the key figure in the coalition, which includes Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

This has unsettled his colleagues who apparently view him as a Johnny-come-lately. Chief Justice emeritus David Maraga has chosen to run a one-man show, leaving no doubt that he will be on the presidential ballot in 2027. Karua was Raila’s running mate in 2022.

In the Azimio Coalition team, Kalonzo and Wamalwa were co-principals, while Matiang’i brought in the system and ‘deep state’. Both the system and ‘deep state’ were hyped as the killer punch for Raila’s fifth attempt, which failed spectacularly when they were most needed.

It is worth noting that Gachagua has chosen to include Karua in his US tour entourage. He recently christened the others his “beloved cousins” but apparently they were of no value on his maiden trip to the land of opportunities. The clarion call for opposition unity is currently at best lip service to supporters. In real terms, the opposition is at a crossroads.

Kalonzo considers himself the most deserving presidential candidate, as the longest-serving leader in the opposition trenches, having started with Raila in 2013. Wamalwa seems comfortable with him. Matiang’i is working on a strategy to consolidate the Kisii vote basket to himself. With this, he will seek to enter into a post-election coalition with the winning party or coalition, which may lack a commanding majority in Parliament.

The cracks and fissures in the opposition ranks have been a boon to Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration. Buoyed by the support and numbers from Raila’s ODM strongholds, Ruto sits a little pretty as he approaches the general elections.

The post-Gachagua impeachment ruckus enabled him to establish a team of loyal and skillful political operatives. He has added to his stable allies with a loyal support base.

This, therefore, has been swelling his numbers and cancelling the loss occasioned by Gachagua’s exit. The President has maintained a grip on his backyard, Rift Valley. The region comprises the majority Kalenjin and Maa communities.

There is a sprinkling of other settler ethnic communities in Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. This region constitutes Kenya’s second-largest vote bloc. The small tribes of Nyanza, Kisii and Kuria have traditionally split their votes, half for Raila and the rest for Jubilee and later UDA.

Under the current unity between Raila and Ruto, they are likely to vote as a bloc. Then add the traditional support bases of Raila and it is game over. Western, Coast and Nyanza regions will swell the numbers for Ruto.

They will join with the north eastern political swathe whose leaders have chosen to remain loyal to the President. What Ruto will lose with certainty is Central Kenya and Lower Eastern comprising the Kamba land. It is unlikely the Kambas would join forces with the Kikuyus since Kalonzo and Gachagua have an uneasy relationship.

The Upper Eastern region of Meru and Tharaka has been struggling over the years to break away from the domination of the Kikuyu. They will most likely take advantage of the existing confusion to chart their own path for the first time.

Already their leaders have been openly gravitating towards the President and government against the overtures of Gachagua.

The Embu will be the only cousin to stand with the former Deputy President and his Kikuyu ilk. Therefore, as it stands now, if the votes are to be tallied, the President will romp home in his reelection bid.