Kalonzo, who has in recent weeks played hardball and rejected all efforts for a deal with Ruto, is quickly finding himself in a tight political corner ahead of the 2027 general election.
Besides losing out on top state jobs for either himself or his allies, he’s also set to lose the political support especially of Raila on whose popularity he had hoped to ride to challenge Ruto for President in 2027.
In the recent past, Kalonzo has sought Raila’s reciprocation following support for the opposition boss in the last three general elections.
On Friday, however, there was strong speculation that the ex-Vice President could be finally heading to the expanded broad-based government.
Sources indicated that Kalonzo was destined to take up the Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary docket currently held by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
There was no confirmation yet as Kalonzo has insisted he will never work with Ruto.
Kalonzo has been angling for the Azimio presidential ticket.
Raila’s interest in the African Union Commission chairmanship leaves him as the most formidable politico within the coalition.
Ruto’s naming of Raila’s linchpins to the Cabinet on Wednesday has triggered anxiety within Kalonzo’s camp over a possible secret pact with President Ruto.
The Wiper leader – a two-time Raila’s running mate - has been banking on Raila’s endorsement to win the ODM leader’s bases including Raila’s heartland of Nyanza.
This, however, now appears to be a dashed hope given the new political marriage between Raila and Ruto - who it is believed will seek re-election in 2027.
Besides losing a formidable campaigner, Kalonzo will also have the difficult task of keeping the Azimio coalition intact.
Kalonzo’s woes got worse on Thursday when Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua announced she was exiting the coalition.
“Kindly take note that our stay in Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is not tenable due to the prevailing political environment,” Karu’s Narc Kenya Party wrote to the Azimio secretariat.
“As Narc Kenya, by way of this letter we are giving notice to exit the coalition as stipulated in the exit clause (s) in the Coalition Agreement.
“This notice is effective from the date of this letter.”
The letter was signed by Narc Kenya’s acting secretary general Asha Bashir.
The exit of Karua, Odinga’s running mate in the last election, leaves the former Vice President with greenhorns who have never charted the murky waters of national campaigns.
Kalonzo is now left with amongst others Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K), Jeremiah Kioni (Jubilee) and Peter Munya (PNU).
Political observer Martin Andati said Kalonzo’s resolve to reject Ruto’s advances has left him with only one option – to run for president.
“However, it will be a tall order for him to win. He’s not impactful enough. He is not emotionally connected with the people. His media team is not effective,” he said.
Compared to Raila, the three remaining Azimio stalwarts are not politically influential to sway votes in favour of Kalonzo.
Eugene hails from the vote-rich western region. However, he does not wield political influence outside his native community. Over the years, Raila has controlled the politics of the region.
Matters are even more complicated for Eugene after Ruto picked the influential ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya to the Cabinet.
This is besides Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula who come from the region and are already in government.
For Kioni, whose Jubilee Party is headed by Uhuru, it will be nearly impossible to deliver any Mt Kenya votes to Kalonzo.
The region is currently under the grip of the President and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
The Jubilee secretary general, however, downplayed the looming Raila and Karua exist from Azimio.
According to Kioni, the coalition will remain steady despite the departures.
“We are soldering on. We call it aluta continua. The thinner the better,” he told the Star.
Kioni reiterated the opposition outfit remains focused on dislodging President Ruto from the helm of power.
“When you go to a battle, a few will drop along the way. Others will be killed and others injured. That cannot make you abandon your journey. You cannot stop the journey because someone has dropped out,” he said.
Makueni MP Dan Maanzo also exuded confidence that the Wiper boss's march to State House will not be derailed by the ongoing political realignments.
“ODM has not indicated that they are exiting Azimio. For us in Wiper, we are not looking back. In 2027 we will present our candidate,” Maanzo told the Star on phone.
For Uhuru, the exit of Raila and Karua means he has lost the formidable team he has been using in his continued war with his successor whom he loathes.
Uhuru is said to have not forgiven his decade-long deputy since the two fell out in the second term of the Jubilee government.
It is believed that the ex-President had a hand in the violent protests of Azimio led by Raila that almost made Kenya ungovernable in the first year of Ruto’s reign.
Uhuru repeatedly and publicly admitted that he was in Azimio, including during the worst opposition demonstrations.
With the current dalliance between Ruto and Raila, Uhuru will have to go back to the drawing board.
According to Andati, the ex-President is in a tight corner after Raila, the man he has been banking on to dismantle Ruto, opted to shift.
“Uhuru wanted to use Raila to destabilise Ruto. That has backfired. There is no other serious face in his circles because Gachagua may not leave Ruto after all. Uhuru must now stick to permanent retirement,” he stated.
