Deep-rooted animosity among ODM aspirants over thorny party nominations could hurt party leader Raila Odinga’s bid to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The party’s decision to give direct tickets to some aspirants in certain regions has jolted and angered a number of influential and seasoned politicians.
Awarding direct tickets instead of holding primaries and letting party members pick candidates has triggered a storm that could undermine Raila’s chances.
The problem has been compounded by revelations that issuing direct tickets is determined by a number of factors, including gender and party loyalty, not related to popularity.
The Star has established that anxiety among aspirants in Mombasa — seen as one of ODM's political bastions — is reaching a crescendo.
It is said the party is completing plans to issue direct tickets and who will get them.
The Mombasa gubernatorial seat, for instance, is fiercely fought between businessman Suleiman Shahbal and Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir.
On Thursday, a group of pro-ODM youth in Kisii took to the streets to protest the party's decision to hand a direct ticket to Woman Representative Janet Ongera.
Ongera is a former long-serving ODM executive director and is among the top ODM loyalists.
In Rift Valley and Northeastern, there will be no primaries as the party intends to use consensus to select candidates.
The party's nightmare could be in Nyanza — Raila's traditional bedrock where sources say the party intends to issue direct tickets to gubernatorial contenders in all counties.
Already, Homa Bay Women Representative Gladys Wanga has been issued a direct ticket, triggering a storm.
Analysts say direct tickets could cause voter apathy on August 9 as local competition can generate high voter turnout.
Political observers Herman Manyora and Gabriel Muthuma said growing displeasure of the aspirants could cause disillusioned voters to stay home. That would hurt Raila's bid.
“Certainly, there are people who may opt to stay home and decide not to vote on August 9 [because the people they support are not on the ballot],” Manyora said.
The University of Nairobi don said though most parties, just like ODM, have adopted consensus, that route may depict the parties as undemocratic and insensitive to the people's wishes in some regions.
“The biggest thing is the picture and the image they are portraying out there. They are saying ODM [leaders] are people who do not respect democracy or do not want to allow people within the party to participate freely,” he said.
Analyst Muthuma said, “What is happening will affect Raila by far [the most]. He is the leader of ODM and he takes the highest heat for anything that happens within the party that signals discontent.”
ODM national chairman John Mbadi concurred. He bolted from the Homa Bay race after Wanga got the ticket.
He said his party boss needs "everyone" to mobilise for his election, especially at the grassroots, and ensure maximum voter turnout.
“I say it is true it can affect us because Raila needs all members of ODM to mobilise our supporters to vote,” Mbadi told the Star.
Citing Homa Bay, Mbadi said the party is not necessarily picking candidates based on their popularity, but considering other factors, including gender.
“You do not necessarily need to rank number one in terms of popularity to be picked. Other considerations are there, including but not limited to gender,” he said.
The party chairman said, however, that those walking out of the party after losing out on the ticket are displaying their "selfishness and non-commitment" to the party.
ODM presumably has decided to issue direct tickets, especially in its strongholds of Nyanza, Western and Coast, to avoid the chaos and violence that have rocked past primaries.
The party has, however, scheduled scattered primaries in 20 counties, starting from Friday to April 21, in a new strategy to avoid tumult and rigging claims.
On Friday, the party’s National Elections Board chaired by Catherine Mumma was scheduled to conduct primaries in Nakuru, but the polling was cancelled. Party members were angry.
Primaries will be held in Kwale and Taita Taveta on Tuesday next week.
In Mombasa, primaries will be held on Wednesday.
However, the fierce rivalry among aspirants and issuance of direct tickets have triggered in-house wars among the aspirants that will not help the ODM boss.
On Thursday, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero threw a spanner in the works by rejecting the direct nomination of Homa Bay Woman Rep Wanga as its candidate for governor.
His comments followed Raila's announcement that five aspirants for the seat had agreed to back Wanga. He was not invited to consult.
“This is a team of leadership from Homa Bay. There are MPs, party officials and, more importantly, aspirants running for governorship in Homa Bay county," Raila said.
"They have had a very extensive consultation and at the end of it an agreement has been reached by way of consensus," he said.
Raila met Mbadi, Jared Kiasa, former county secretary Isaiah Ogwe, former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga, Louis Ogingo, Kuppet secretary general Akelo Misori and Deputy Governor Hamilton Orata.
“I was not invited to the meeting and I am not in agreement. In consensus, everybody must agree. I will be exploring alternative avenues to run for governor, Kidero said.
Kidero, Mbadi and other aspirants have been combing the county in door-to-door campaigns.
They campaigned for Raila, and themselves, so withdrawing from the field would deal a blow to Raila.
In Kakamega, Raila handed a direct ticket for governor to former Ketraco managing director Fernandez Barasa.
Direct tickets were also given to MPs Tindi Mwale (Butere), Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo) , Peter Nabulindo (Matungu nd Edward Kaunya (Teso North MP ).
The party is also said to be planning to give a direct ticket to former Funyula MP Paul Otuoma for Busia governor. Woman Representative Florence Mutua is also seeking the ticket.
In Siaya, Raila’s home county, reports indicate the party has settled on renowned Senator James Orengo to succeed outgoing Governor Cornel Rasanga.
The moves have sparked a split, with former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo and former police spokesman Charles Owino – both effective mobilisers — shifting DP William Ruto's favoured UDA.
The duo has been campaigning throughout the county.
In Kisumu, Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o is poised to secure a direct ODM ticket for reelection.
The party has avoided primaries despite a number of aspirants declaring interest in the party ticket. They include former EAC Chief Administrative Secretary Ken Obura.
The situation is the same in Mombasa where it is said the party favours one of the two governor aspirants – Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir and businessman banker Suleiman Shahbal.
Nassir says he is a loyal Raila soldier who has stood with the party at the worst of times.
Shahbal is a tycoon businessman believed to be one of those bankrolling Raila's presidential campaign.
The two are neck and neck, each enjoying considerable support in the neck with each enjoying considerable following.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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