At age 77, it was time to hang up his boots and pass the baton, both critics and some supporters said.
While his critics have argued the 2022 presidential run would have been his last bullet — referring to a presumed last attempt — Raila is leaving all guessing about his political plans.
Outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta has said Raila had to be persuaded to run as he was the only candidate who could defeat Deputy President William Ruto.
However, IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati announced that UDA flagbearer Ruto had won.
Raila is expected to challenge Ruto's win in court and a battery of lawyers has teamed up to fight his case.
If he loses, he could return to the role of opposition leader, criticising Ruto's regime.
When confronted with the retirement question in 2021, the Azimio presidential candidate affirmed that he has a magazine of bullets, contrary the notion he had only one bullet left.
“Who is that saying I have only one bullet? I have never said I have only one bullet. In fact, I have a full magazine,” Raila said on July 9, 2021.
The statement was interpreted to mean Raila was not about to retire anytime soon and that he would remain in active politics for a while.
In fact, after the 2017 election, Raila said he would retire on his own terms, noting that he had a dream to accomplish.
Despite losing the 2022 presidential election, there are those who believe that Raila has a role to play in the country's politics even subtly.
But others say the veteran opposition leader should honourably retire and allow others, fresh blood, to assume his mantle.
Former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett, when asked whether Raila should retire, said the ODM leader is still a valuable “nationalist” that cannot be wished away.
“I am not sure that he should retire but, Raila is a man the country needs all the time,” the former Bureti MP.
He went on, “ He (Raila) is a man who has seen it all, he is a leader with impeccable credentials.”
But the 'opposition leader' label was in question when Ruto and President Uhuru Kenyatta shook hands, then Kenyatta backed Raila and called on state functionaries to back him.
NO REAL OPPOSITION
Now Kenya is without a genuine opposition leader, many people say.
In the past, as in this year's general election, many chose to write off Raila after he lost elections, but the professor of political reinvention found his way back.
He has previously crafted jumbo political alliances too close to elections, finding a way of firming up his place in the political arena as an indispensable player.
Former ODM national treasurer Omingo Magara, who worked with Raila for many years, said anyone trying to write off Raila would be in for a rude shock.
“Raila is not your ordinary politician, he is the modern professor of Kenyan politics and would remain relevant as many years to come as possible,” he said.
Magara said Raila has mastered not just the art of politics but also the chemistry of rearranging the national political mosaic with ease.
“Look at what he did after being almost written off in 2017. He went for the handshake, trashed his Nasa outfit and created a formidable force that would be known as Azimio,” Magara said.
RAILA HAS NINE LIVES
After losing to Ruto, his own political student, Raila is said to be weighing options on his political future amidst pressure to accept defeat.
On Wednesday, Raila receiveD "concede" calls from the most unlikely of quarters, including fiery South African opposition leader Julius Malema who asked him “to move on” and quit politics altogether.
Speaking at a joint press briefing of South Africa's opposition parties on Wednesday, Malema said it was a “shame” that Raila had lost presidential elections five times.
“I think it is time for him to throw in the towel and [for Kenya to] try a different candidate. Perhaps there could be a different outcome. This is the fifth time, it can’t be done beyond this. He needs to accept and move on,” Malema said.
It was hoped that Raila would easily beat Ruto after securing the backing of President Kenyatta and the state machinery. His elder brother Oburu Odinga had previously said lack of state backing was “what eluded them for Raila to get the presidency”.
On Monday, IEBC chairperson Wafula Chebukati announced Ruto as President-elect after he garnered 7.1 million votes, 50.49 per cent of the total votes cast.
Raila received 6.9 million votes, about 48.85 per cent, Chebukati said.
Raila has rejected the results and said he would explore legal and constitutional avenues to challenge the outcome.
“The chair acted in disregard of the Constitution… Azimio rejects the presidential results announced by Mr Chebukati,” Raila said at a news conference on Wednesday.
BUT WHEN WILL HE RETIRE?
Politicians from Raila's Nyanza backyard, it has been suggested, do not really work hard for him but often easily win their political seats by riding on his back.
“At his age, Raila may not be the fiery political leader Kenya has known for years,"political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said.
"If he insists on making a sixth stab at the presidency in 2027 [at age 82], Raila may lose by a humiliating margin."
The university don said politicians allied to Raila tend to take advantage of him in every election, securing their elections and advancing their politics at his expense.
Across his Nyanza heartland, those clinging to his coattails succeed but he tumble election after election, he said.
Raila's relevance in the political arena has been attributed to his thick political skin and the ability to reinvent himself, even when he has been written off completely.
His political career is replete with unlikely reinventions that have shocked his critics.
In 1997, as a beginner in the presidential contest, Raila lost to President Daniel Moi after a fragmented opposition split the vote.
In 2001, he quickly engineered a rapprochement with President Moi and was appointed Cabinet minister.
A falling out with Moi saw him lead rebel government ministers into the opposition.
He would later be instrumental in the formation of the Narc government that swept Kanu from power.
In the lead up to the 2007 polls, Raila quit the Kibaki government and led opposition against the proposed new constitution. He prevailed against President Mwai Kibaki.
He latched on the huge 'No' Wave to build a giant ODM machine that nearly vanquished Kibaki in 2007.
In the ensuing elections, Kibaki was declared the winner with 4.58 million votes, against Raila’s 4.35 million votes, a difference of 231,000 votes.
Raila rejected the results, saying they were marred by irregularities.
The dispute would lead to post-election violence in which more than 1,200 people were killed and more than 600,000 displaced.
In the 2013 polls, Raila formed the Cord coalition and drew in Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang'ula.
He ran against an emotionally charged campaign by President Uhuru who was then facing crimes against humanity charges at the ICC alongside Ruto. He lost.
The ICC cases collapsed. There were no trials as witnesses recanted, disappeared or worse.
Results placed Uhuru in the lead with 50.07 per cent, followed by Raila's 43.31 per cent. He filed a petition at the Supreme Court, which upheld Uhuru's victory.
Uhuru Kenyatta won the election with 6.17 million votes, against Raila’s 5.34 million votes.
LAS BULLET IN 2017?
Swiftly, in the lead up to the 2017 polls, Raila created another behemoth political movement called the National Super Alliance, Nasa. He worked with Wiper boss Kalonzo, Ford Kenya's Moses Wetang'ula and ANC's Musalia Mudavadi.
The results of the August 8 polls showed Uhuru had won with 54 per cent of the votes (7.7 million) and that Raila came second with 45 per cent (6.3 million).
On September 1, the Supreme Court nullified the presidential election outcome and ordered a repeat poll, which Raila and his supporters boycotted.
President Kenyatta was declared the winner with 7.48 million votes, against Raila’s 73,200 votes.
2022: FINAL STAB? MAYBE
Previously, it would have been unheard of for some of the Mt Kenya bigwigs to support Raila and say, “Baba tosha.”
But the tide seemed to have turned in Raila's favour.
Uhuru, who has historically been the thorn in Raila's flesh, became the wind in his sails.
Raila lost, again.
This is despite having been endorsed by the Mt Kenya Foundation, an elite club of wealth businessmen from Mt Kenya.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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