Expert comment: Africa Forward: Positioning Africa as essential only matters if it changes outcomes

The Africa Forward Summit comes at a particularly unsettling moment in the global system. Economic fragmentation is deepening, supply chains are shifting, climate commitments remain uneven, and trust in multilateral institutions is under pressure.

In that environment, Africa’s role cannot be peripheral. It has to be central to the global conversation. That is what the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi is seeking to achieve.

Co-hosted by President William Ruto of Kenya and President Emmanuel Macron of France, this is the first time the summit is being held in an Anglophone African country. Beyond geography, it signals a subtle but important shift in how Africa engages with global partners — not just in setting, but in terms of influence.

For years, Africa’s external relations have been shaped by a donor-recipient framework that no longer reflects current realities. Today, the continent sits at the centre of global growth, energy transition and the future workforce. Yet this position has not always translated into influence over financing, market access or decision-making. That is the gap Nairobi is attempting to address.

Africa is not asking to be included; it is already part of the solution. From climate resilience to food systems and technology, global challenges cannot be solved without Africa’s full participation. The real question is whether that participation is reflected in outcomes.

That brings us to the most important shift under discussion: delivery.

There have been many well-crafted communiqués over the years. The challenge has never been agreement, but implementation. What stands out in Nairobi is an attempt to ground discussions in execution — with greater focus on bankable projects, investment pipelines and measurable delivery.

The priorities are not new, but they are being framed with greater urgency.

The first is economic transformation that retains value on the continent. Africa has long exported raw materials while importing finished goods, a model that has constrained industrialisation and job creation.

Green industrialisation offers a potential pathway, especially given Africa’s renewable energy potential.

Kenya, for example, already generates nearly 90 per cent of its energy from green sources. But potential alone is not enough.

Scaling industrialisation depends on reliable power, affordable financing and consistent policy frameworks. Without these, Africa risks exporting yet another form of raw potential rather than industrial value.

The second priority is value capture. Africa produces at scale but often retains only a small share of the value generated. This is particularly evident in agriculture, where producers bear the risk but do not always benefit fully from returns.

Initiatives such as geographical indication frameworks aim to correct this imbalance by recognising origin, protecting quality and strengthening pricing power.

However, their impact will depend on implementation. Without proper certification systems, market access and enforcement, the benefits will remain limited.

With them, they could significantly shift value distribution in Africa’s favour.

The third priority is participation in the technologies shaping the next phase of global growth.

Africa cannot afford to remain on the margins of the digital and artificial intelligence economy. With the world’s youngest population, the stakes are immediate and long term.

The ambition is clear: to build, not just consume. The challenge lies in whether systems are in place to support that ambition — through sustained investment in education, infrastructure and regulatory frameworks that allow innovation to scale.

Across all three priorities, the issue is not direction but delivery. The summit is expected to reinforce a broader shift in how Africa engages globally, with expanding partnerships across the Global South creating more room for negotiation and balance.

However, diversification of partnerships does not automatically guarantee better outcomes. Some relationships risk replicating extractive patterns under new forms. Without clear terms and strong governance, expanded engagement could dilute rather than strengthen Africa’s position.

This brings us back to a fundamental question: if Africa is so central to global stability and growth, why does that not consistently translate into fairer trade, finance and mobility outcomes?

The Nairobi summit does not resolve that contradiction, but it sharpens it. It forces the conversation into clearer focus — that Africa’s centrality only matters if it changes outcomes.

Nairobi’s emerging role, therefore, will not be measured by how many summits it hosts, but by what follows. Do commitments become projects? Do projects reach completion? Do they generate real economic value?

That is the standard against which this moment will ultimately be judged. The expectations are clear. The test now lies in what comes next.

The writer is the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary, Ministry for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs of the Republic of Kenya