logo
ADVERTISEMENT

AJUOK: The Odinga factor: Too much ado about nothing in Luo succession

Only a naïve politician with a kamikaze mentality can land in Kisumu, insult Raila, attempt to install a rival Luo Ker.

image
by Amol Awuor

Siasa18 February 2024 - 06:09
ADVERTISEMENT

In Summary


  • The first blunder by this group is that it has formed a habit of picking too many battles within the community, at the expense of winning hearts and minds.
  • Battling both Raila and the community’s cultural head, Mzee Randa, is strategic naivety.
ODM leader Raila Odinga and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir serve food to pupils at the the Pwani School for the Mentally Handicapped on February 13, 2024.

There has been political drama in Luoland these past weeks. A rather insignificant number of politicians from the community, obviously enjoying the patronage of regime bigwigs, have decided that they have had enough of the leadership – they call it slavery – of the region’s kingpin, ODM chief Raila Odinga. They want him to retire.

While at it, they also want to “retire” the Raila-friendly elected Luo Ker, Odungi Randa. They haven’t stated whom they want in place of Raila, but as for Odungi, they have a standby alternative in the form of one Nyandiko Ongadi. In their quest for their desired changes, the politicians are going about this with the inexperience of young bulls in a kraal trying to mount all the females, from the head.

The first blunder by this group is that it has formed a habit of picking too many battles within the community, at the expense of winning hearts and minds. Battling both Raila and the community’s cultural head, Mzee Randa, is strategic naivety. In strict terms, the Ker of the community is chosen by what the natives of the land call “juok piny”, the spirits of the community, in a conclave not too dissimilar to the one deployed by the Vatican in choosing a new Pope.

Therefore, the sight of young, vociferous politicians gallivanting all over the landscape with a ready-made elder and a traditional stool, just waiting to install him, is completely unLuo, if I may use the term. But if indeed the problem they have is with the community’s leadership under Raila for the past few decades. Where does Odungi come into this, having served just a few months. In any case, which “juok piny” picked this other pseudo Ker?

The second mistake is to directly take on the ODM boss for the political heart and soul of the community. Anyone seeking long-term change within a region would naturally begin with the low-hanging fruits; the elected leaders in the lower offices like MCAs and MPs. I am certain that at a certain level, these so- called agents of change would find a good number of locals disillusioned by the poor performance of their MCAs, MPs, woman reps and senators, enough to actually consider replacing them with these “change advocates” at the next election. But to seek to replace Raila himself, in what the people call “inheriting a man’s house while he still lives”, speaks to the callous nature of the project.

The third problem with this quest is both the choice of vehicle and messenger. For the entire period that the Luo have been in opposition, the foremost adversary of their political formation has been the ruling party. Indeed, when multiparty politics was still relatively new following the 1992 elections, all elected Luo leaders who defected to Kanu lost the subsequent by-election. Attempting to change the community’s political world view by using the vehicle they have unanimously rejected in the previous election is stretching luck too far.

Ahead of the 1997 general elections, when the much-respected Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o declined to join the community’s caravan into the National Development Party. He chose to ride his luck in Charity Ngilu’s Social Democratic Party, an otherwise admirable outfit, which became the standby choice for neutral Kenyans in that election. He didn’t make much headway in the Kisumu Rural constituency contest. Exactly five years later, another respected community son, James Orengo, would reject the Kibaki Tosha movement and opt to run for both President and MP on the same SDP that had by now been abandoned by both Prof Nyong’o and Ngilu. Orengo was thoroughly defeated in the 2002 polls.

I cite these two because it is my view that Orengo and Nyong’o are perhaps the two most respected Luo leaders after Raila, having been in the trenches with him the longest. Which illustrates my position that the messengers being used by the anti-Odinga brigade currently fall short of the character and credibility needed to make a real impact on the population. I notice that some of the key players here include former Governor Okoth Obado and perennial rabble rouser, Odoyo Owidi. I am not sure what successful recruitment such characters can conduct for any party, and I certainly hope no one is paying for this disservice.

The fifth in this catalogue of blunders is this group’s strange desire to position Interior CS Raymond Omolo as the face of their change quest. I say strange, first because it undermines PS Omolo’s real government work if the community or sections of it see him merely as a political figurehead for anti-Raila elements in the region. But second, and probably more importantly, Omolo is a civil servant while Raila is not only the community’s topmost leader, but the most consequential political force in the whole country. The mismatch is painful to watch.

What the foregoing means is that the whole charade throws a senior civil servant into the murky waters of ethnic politics, but without the luxury to mount a podium to respond. Effectively, his supposed message has to be delivered by people whose messaging is diluted by tactlessness and a noisy attitude. I am sure there are many respectable people, with a gentler grassroots approach that the government could find if it indeed wanted to engage the community more productively.

Of course, the easier way to win the people, by far, is to offer real development and inclusivity in government to the Luo. Unlike many communities in the country, which easily fall victim to regime rhetoric, residents of Luoland, known to be very politically conscious, do not fall for the fake promises and mirages of development that have come to define the Ruto government. The regime already begins from a disadvantaged position on this, because the Luo community has only one CS in the Cabinet in the form of Eliud Owalo, the first time since independence for this to happen. Without greater inclusion and true friendship extended by government, mere politics and castigation of Raila at every opportunity will take the UDA brigade nowhere.

I suspect that a key part of this quest to spread the ‘yellow fever’ in Luo Nyanza is hinged on the possibility of Raila not being on the ballot in the next general election. This supposedly, at least in the minds of practitioners of this school of thought, would make the Luo vote a toss-up and the region a battleground in 2027. That would still draw us back to the 2002 elections for reference, when James Orengo, a son of the community, running for President on the SDP party, was heavily blanked by a Narc juggernaut, having Mwai Kibaki as its candidate as Raila played a supporting role.

If indeed the Kenya Kwanza ground agents in Luoland hope to capitalise on a possible Raila absence from the ballot, they should in fact take the opposite approach from what they are doing now. It would make more sense to appeal to the people but totally avoid antagonising the ODM leader.

Only a truly naïve politician with a kamikaze mentality can land in Kisumu, the heartland of the community’s commercial and political interests, insult Raila colourfully, attempt to install a rival Luo Ker and leave thinking there was impact.

Whoever is funding all this drama should channel the resources towards more essential stuff. Like school bursaries and fish landing facilities!

The writer is a political commentator 


ADVERTISEMENT

logo© The Star 2024. All rights reserved