Analysing then Deputy President William Ruto and his quest to become president, I noted that his strategy for years to ascend to the presidency was nothing but brilliant, producing astonishing results nobody expected.
So much so that at one point, it looked as though Ruto was quite willing to call President Uhuru Kenyatta and tell him off, and he basically did.
Baffled as many were, I posed the question on why the DP so confident of his ability to defeat the system and all that was arrayed against him to reach an outcome no one before him has managed to approach.
Why was Ruto so confident to succeed now Uhuru despite the fact that, other than Daniel Moi, none of Kenya's 10 vice presidents managed to succeed their bosses?
What did he possess none of these nine men did? I wondered.
The answer then dawned on me. It was there for all to see but we didn’t. The DP must have realised early on that even though the IEBC cooked the numbers to have him, and Uhuru sworn into office in 2013, numbers do matter.
He must have also concluded, I noted then, that come 2022, the IEBC or whatever entity that was to run the elections may not and will not cook the numbers for him as before.
Again, this was back in 2020.
Analysing Ruto’s strategy back then, I noted that long before even the most astute political observers knew, Ruto must have had in place a strategy to rig in as many MPs as he could right from when the duo were sworn to office in 2013 such that by the time Uhuru woke up, he had the numbers in Parliament to do anything he wanted or thwart anything the President wanted but Ruto opposed.
I noted for this reason, BBI could not be implemented through Parliament as the numbers would not be there if the DP ordered his foot soldiers to kill the proposals.
Not only did Ruto rig or sponsor enough MPs to give him the swagger with which he has been walking around, I opined, but he also cleverly exploited Uhuru’s lack of awareness that he planted his loyal soldiers in key parts of government, especially in areas that matter when it comes to presidential elections.
Which begged the question, how come other VPs before him did not do this?
The answer was simple: All presidents before Uhuru were more powerful and vigilant men around them who would sniff out anyone’s machinations even in their dreams and made sure such schemes never materialised.
On this count, Ruto is in class of his own for having outwitted and outsmarted the powers that be to ascend to the presidency.
Part of that wittiness and smartness is discovering and exploiting the despondency of many a Kenyan who no matter how hard they worked or tried, they just couldn’t make ends meet.
When Ruto started railing against “dynasties,” and proclaiming that the country needed a “hustler” like him to lead her to unparalleled prosperity, he made hoi polloi so excited and before anyone could figure what was going on, the hustler train was steam rolling to State House.
It is more than a year and many still can’t believe Ruto beat all the odds to become our fifth President. He beat Uhuru, he beat Raila and yes, he beat the so-called system in its own game.
For that, one must give the President all the chops and accolades.
But then now comes what one needs binoculars to read the writing on the wall for Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza government.
The very hoi polloi who Ruto had excited with his promises of heaven on earth are now slowly but rapidly becoming even more dejected and despondent than they were under the Uhuru government they were told was incompetent and too dynastic.
That is the danger in populism. One can exploit the inequalities and suffering among the masses by promising heaven on earth but if they fail to deliver on their promises as is almost always the case, the price is the same hoi polloi turning against them.