Kalonzo Musyoka recently hosted former President Uhuru Kenyatta in Mwingi, where political currents were clearly discernable. It became evident, to no one’s surprise that Uhuru and Ruto are not on good terms, given the blame placed on Uhuru by the current regime for numerous issues, particularly financial challenges, high cost of living, unemployment and debt.
During the Mwingi gathering, buoyed by a pro-Azimio crowd, Uhuru made an unsavory comment aimed at Ruto, which also disrespected women.
“Nowadays,” the former President said, “I have got used to being blamed for anything and everything. Every time someone fails to do their job, they blame the former government. Even if someone’s wife fails to conceive, they blame Uhuru.”
This was in response to Ruto attributing Kenya’s current economic difficulties to the Uhuru regime.
However, beneath the surface of this political event in Mwingi was an extension of Kalonzo Musyoka’s push, aided by associates, for the Azimio presidential candidacy in 2027. It is said Kalonzo is making concerted efforts to secure this position. While Uhuru may not have intended to openly oppose Ruto and the regime, he likely harbours dissatisfaction with the accusations against him, especially concerning the cost of living.
Despite the current political climate, it may not be in Uhuru’s interests to be in conflict with Ruto and the ruling regime. In Mwingi, Uhuru called for the unity of Kenyans, paradoxically implying his steadfastness in Azimio. He stated, “My political position has not changed because I am not a fraudster to waver from one position to another.” This contrasts with Uhuru’s political journey from Kanu to TNA, then Jubilee and now Azimio. While it may have been political rhetoric for an enthusiastic crowd, it was only a few months ago in Karen that Uhuru seemed determined to rally support amid claims of a government onslaught on his family.
The visit to Mwingi, likely initiated by Kalonzo’s camp to bolster efforts to position Kalonzo for 2027, drew attention from former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama. He claimed only Raila could pose a serious challenge to Ruto in 2027. Muthama, a former supporter of Raila
Odinga, praised Raila’s leadership qualities, despite his current association with the United Democratic Alliance, where he served as Party chairman from its formation until earlier this year.
While Muthama is correct about Raila’s influence in Kenyan politics, it uncertain that only Raila can pose a significant political threat to Ruto in 2027, considering Raila himself has not secured the presidency despite five attempts. Some of these beliefs may essentially be shibboleths that strategists for 2027 must carefully consider. Despite an improved economy during Kibaki’s first term of 2002-2007, he technically lost the 2007 election to Raila, with his return to power in 2008 attributed strongly to poll manipulation and international intervention, mainly, some say, by the US, during a tumultuous period for Kenya.
Ruto’s ascension to power brought forward dynamics often overlooked. Claims by individuals, such as Oburu Odinga, suggested the ‘deep state’ would act against Ruto and propel Raila to power. The rhetoric from Azimio, such “Hii imeenda”, coined by Junet Mohamed, implied
Raila had already secured power and the election would only rubber stamp it. There was also an assumption that without Uhuru’s endorsement, Ruto would struggle in Mt Kenya. However, a few months before the election, Ruto’s popularity posed a challenge that Azimio struggled to curtail and never managed to stop.
Waiting for Raila’s endorsement is a mistake Kalonzo appears to be repeating, despite uncertainties about whether he can manage without it. Ruto faced allegations of corruption from the Azimio brigade, but it did not significantly impact his support base in the 2022 elections, which only grew. Currently, Azimio is making similar claims about discrepancies in the Government-to-government oil deal and other issues. Similar claims were made about the former regime between 2013 and 2017, yet they still won the elections.
The outlook for Raila’s candidacy in 2027 remains unclear. Age may not be a significant factor as long as Raila remains politically active and keeps his support base vibrant. However, Raila may be an easier opponent for Ruto to defeat, mainly due to reservations within the Christian community in Kenya. It is uncertain how the community will react to a Kalonzo candidature and whether there will be any compelling reasons to shift support from Ruto towards him, but so far there is nothing strong.
Ruto’s detractors criticise him using the rising cost of living as proof of insensitivity and being unchristian. However, addressing this issue might be crucial for him, considering the end goal of ffurthering the Kingdom of God, particularly church interests, over this term. The church is indeed powerful as it speaks to the hearts of people, which is essentially the subconscious, and they will be keen to have their needs and interests addressed, considering the great faith they put in Ruto save a few of them.
In Kenyan elections, preparedness remains a critical factor. Starting early for Ruto may not have counted as much as did the powerful political machine he built. The assumption that a movement naturally starts and gains momentum for a presidential candidate is flawed, and has been a factor in Raila’s failures. Strategic planning and effective communication are essential.
Ruto demonstrated this by building a formidable political machine from 2021 to 2022, with presence all over grassroots, and effectively conveying his agenda to Kenyans. The period leading up to elections defines political rhetoric and shapes public opinion. Ruto’s proven mobilisation skills contrast with Raila and Kalonzo’s weaknesses in private political communication.
While promises may face skepticism in 2027, tribal alignments will continue to play a role.
Ruto’s key to success lies in delivering significant promises effectively. The efforts of his Chief of Staff and Head of Public Service Felix Koskei, in instilling efficiency, effectiveness in government and curbing corruption, are crucial for Ruto to make a lasting impact and leave a legacy.
Political commentator