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AJUOK: Kalonzo edges closer to Azimio ticket as Raila edges toward endorsement

But hours after what seemed like near-endorsement, Raila’s office said it was too soon to endorse anyone.

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by Amol Awuor

Siasa22 October 2023 - 02:14
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In Summary


  • I am still a little surprised that Azimio top brass has held together over a year since the last elections.
  • Conventional wisdom usually has it that a losing side in the elections soon disintegrates as leaders seek survival.
Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Azimio chief Raila Odinga attend prayers in Kitui county on October 14, 2023.

Birthday parties happen to be some of the few places still left in this land where one can loosen up, eat cake, generously praise the birthday boy or girl and leave the venue having said nothing particularly important.

But Mama Ida Odinga’s words at the 80th birthday celebrations of Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga last Sunday in Bondo were probably the closest anyone came close to being philosophical on the day. She asked the crowd in Bondo, Siaya county, to demand Oburu the secret to longevity, strength and mental agility when life expectancy isn’t anywhere close to that age.

Politicians rarely celebrate their birthdays. Most of the Kenyan variety, including the Siaya Senator, come from an era where the date of birth didn’t hold much significance. Besides, there is already enough trouble on any given day, trying to neutralise the machinations of one’s own birthday and cheer.

Oburu would be holding a birthday bash on October but knew there was much more to it. Oburu is reputed to be the roving diplomat of the Odinga family. With solid networks across the political aisle, and famous for keeping his word, the Senator is said to be the ‘John the Baptist; for his younger brother, ODM chief Raila Odinga. The octogenarian Oburu is the forerunner who lays the ground for many political deals struck by the Odingas.

With this background, the appearance of Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka as chief guest at Dr Oburu’s birthday bash undoubtedly raised political antennas. It actually didn’t take long for this to be clearly manifested on the podium.

You have to marvel at Kalonzo’s power play. As they say on the streets, “He didn’t come to Bondo to play,” When invited to the podium, he summoned his ‘small team’ from the Wiper heartland of Ukambani to be introduced to their hosts. It was nearly the entire Ukambani political leadership, with all three governors, including Makueni Governor Mutula Kilonzo Jnr, who had been off the political radar for a while, present. There was also a host of Ukambani Senators, MPs, MCAs, religious leaders and activists.

Kalonzo personally introduced each one of them, down to the names of their villages, a remarkable pointer to how well he knows his troops. For all intents and purposes, it was Ukambani meeting Luoland for the early stages of a budding political marriage. The birthday party was merely the platform.

It has been two decades since Raila Odinga declared “Kibaki Tosha,” in that 2022 moment, which caught both allies and opponents flat-footed. Within Kenyan political circles, there is near unanimity that even though that chant at Uhuru Park changed the destiny of Kenyan politics and accelerated the fall of Kanu, things could have been done in a more structured way, and more consensus should have been built, before the liberation heroes settled on Mwai Kibaki as the joint candidate.

To a large extent, this realisation has affected subsequent coalition-building processes. Last Sunday in Bondo, the Kalonzo team may have walked away feeling closer to a Kalonzo Tosha moment, but one couldn’t help noticing how close Raila came to doing it without committing to it.[See Star Page 1,Tuesay October 16, ‘Raila’s U-turn on Kalonzo’s 2027 State  House bid’].

I am still a little surprised that Azimio top brass has held together over a year since the last elections. Conventional wisdom usually has it that a losing side in the elections soon disintegrates as leaders seek survival within the comfortable embrace of government largesse.

It speaks to how unattractive the Ruto regime is for many on the opposition side, that the option of crossing the floor and finding a ‘soft life’ in government doesn’t appeal to Azimio co-principals. But with every passing day, we get closer to the next electoral cycle and there will be decisions to be made over flagbearers for elective seats.

For the presidential one, I doubt bookmakers will be accepting any more bets, as Kalonzo appears to have it in the bag. Which can only mean that as this reality becomes clearer, conflict within the top echelons of the coalition will emerge. However, any other Azimio potential claimant to the ticket will have to accept that away from Raila Odinga, only Kalonzo holds sway and brings his numbers to the table.

By parading Ukambani leaders on the podium in Bondo, he demonstrated his ground control and hold on his Wiper base. It is a reality that I am sure ODM’s 2022 Azimio running mate, Martha Karua, will have internalised by now.

There is no belabouring the fact there is currently massive discontent with the Ruto regime across the country. Indeed, the Kenya Kwanza government’s jewel in the crown, the Mt Kenya voting bloc, appears to get more disenchanted with the government by the day.

Like every president seeking a second term since Mwai Kibaki, Ruto will head into 2027 politically gasping for breath. If it happens, that his opponent is Azimio’s Kalonzo Musyoka, while the name of Raila Odinga, long used as a hate figure to mobilise voters in the mountain region, is missing on the ballot, the calculations will become even more complicated for the incumbent.

With four years still to go before the next election, the difficult task, for political formations seeking to create pre-election coalitions is how to delicately navigate the coming months while keeping friends and vote bases secure. For Ruto, apart from burning the midnight oil worrying about how to keep the Mount Kenya base in his corner or find another large base if he can’t, his biggest problem is going into the election as the incumbent, bearing the burden of government failures.

But for Kalonzo, if as expected, he secures an unequivocal Raila endorsement, he starts the race with the luxury of having the reliable Luo voting bloc in the bag, before going on the hunt for a dependable running mate. My hunch is that the running mate will be from Western Kenya, perhaps a straight pick between former Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa and former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya. Who knows, if the Kikuyu voters get restless and disillusioned enough with the Ruto regime, Kalonzo may even bag this one too.

However, it’s still early days and the dynamics at play will keep evolving as the months fly past. As a suitor, the Wiper boss has his work cut out for him. Luckily for him, his new praise choir is from Raila’s Luo ethnic base. It relieves the former VP of the need to have his Ukambani political surrogates having to be the ones demanding that Raila backs him. The Raila political base is thoroughly sensitive to any mention of its leader and gets jittery over anything that looks like blackmail targeted at the ODM boss.

But with the “Bondo Declaration”, I see nothing stopping the Ukambani kingpin from setting up his presidential campaign team, and hitting the ground early, as Ruto himself did. After all, the ground is ripe for a new message, as the runaway cost of living creates a powerful change constituency each day. I can predict a ‘Kalonzo Tosha’ endorsed by Raila, like Mwai Kibaki in 2002, may become a force too powerful to beat, and one which closes any doors to thoughts of electoral fraud.

 

Political commentator

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