That is just how short-lived the former Vice President’s moment in the limelight was in the camp that is Deputy President William Ruto’s UDA and follower parties.
The promise of huge campaign funding and the promise of being a chief minister and 30 per cent of government appointments must have overly excited Mudavadi into the political gaffe that was his teaming up with Ruto.
First, the position and goodies are a mirage because the 70 per cent Western Kenya votes target is a torturous one for Mudavadi, assisted by Bungoma Senator and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula. Joining Ruto was not a meticulous decision by Mudavadi, a Cabinet minister in various portfolios. The ANC party leader was better off in the Raila Odinga camp as his political future was bright and guaranteed in the Azimio One Kenya Coalition party.
Raila, with his strong army from Western Kenya, enjoys the majority following in the region. With his profile, Mudavadi was poised to take over the entire vote from the region, and effectively enjoy reciprocal backing from the Nyanza region upon Raila’s retirement from active politics.
As things stand, Raila intends to leave active politics in the next five years. This means was only five years from inheriting the political kingship of the Western vote bloc, with reciprocal backing from the Nyanza backyard. Such a golden opportunity, the man from Sabatia squandered with the biggest political blunder of modern Kenyan history by joining Ruto’s camp.
First, unlike Raila who shadows Mudavadi politically and in terms of experience, Ruto is way younger and less experienced politically and otherwise than him. Teaming with Ruto is an open display of Mudavadi’s timid nature and approach to issues. He seems like the man who would rather stand behind and push others, as opposed to being that aggressive go-getter that voters would follow comfortably and confidently.
The Ruto camp has little promise for Mudavadi. All the promises made are dependent on the duo of Ruto and Rigathi capturing power. As things seem right now, the chance for this is smaller and could diminish even further with campaigns. After losing the elections, Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and company will be out in the cold politically. If the UDA brigade were to capture power, which for the record seems less probable, Mudavadi’s wait for power would be not less than 20 years. Ruto would be expecting to go 10 years unopposed, given he does not attempt to extend his stay.
After that, Gachagua would expect Ruto to reciprocate his support by supporting him for a 10-year tenure. Then if the two gentlemen and their generals are men of their word, they would consider supporting Mudavadi. Note, with the impossible target demanded by the camp of Musalia Mudavadi, he will not get the goodies promised, and he will have nothing to show his supporters. Consequently, his profile as a person who can be trusted to shepherd the people of Western Kenya will be questionable.
In the very likely event that Azimio-One Kenya wins this election, the wait becomes even longer for Mudavadi. He could be counting at least 40 years of waiting in line, which simply means he will never get anywhere near power. Additionally, with the disapproval he has received from his Western backyard since joining Ruto just to spite Raila, even after the ODM leader exits power, it will be impossible for him to inherit the Western vote basket.
By joining Ruto’s UDA led camp, Mudavadi has made a huge political blunder that threatens to send him to political oblivion. What he needs to do is grow some crystal balls and make a bold reverse move. His political future is only guaranteed and very bright with Azimio-One Kenya coalition party. He is not only poised to inherit the Western Kenya vote bloc but is also guaranteed of reciprocal support by the Nyanza electorate owing to their political ties over the years. He is a prodigal son who fled from his home, leaving all his people behind.
The best he can do is to return home and take his place, as the next in line to lead his people after the exit of Raila.
It is not too late, and his people will listen to him, forgive him, and take him back. He, however, does not have the luxury of time, because the Azimio super speed train is gaining speed and he risks being unable to jump on after the locomotive he is currently riding in is left way behind by his rightful ride.
Missing this chance will cost him the entire Western and Nyanza vote bloc and with these, his political future. Fortune favors the bold. Make the bold move now, son of Hannah!
