President Uhuru Kenyatta's studious silence about the ferocious eruption of his Mt Kenya backyard has exposed his calculation or indecision in the 2022 succession.
The President appears to be juggling between playing a kingmaker role in the presidential transition and retaining his influence as Mt Kenya kingpin beyond next year. The kingpin ambition seems to be winning.
He could be playing divide-and-rule to succeed himself in the vast region as he retires.
Part of his wider scheme appears to be suppressing growth and clout among senior politicians to bestow upon himself sweeping control beyond 2022.
Interviews with key Mt Kenya politicians expose the President's determination to retain a firm grip on the populous region and formidable vote bloc of six million
Most have insisted the tremors roiling Mt Kenya are directly linked to a revolt against the President's plans to retain power.
For the first time, former Mukuweini MP Kabando wa Kabondo admitted the confusion is linked to a plan by Uhuru to remain active after exiting office.
“I do not think Uhuru plans to exit the political scene," Kabando told Citizen TV on Wednesday night.
The former assistant minister said while Uhuru has no constitutional leeway to extend his term, the BBI push could have been a Trojan Horse.
"Haven't you heard his buddies from St Mary's saying Uhuru is going nowhere? We understood BBI would fix electoral reforms," Kabando said.
While the President predecessor and ex-Mt Kenya kingpin Mwai Kibaki retired to a quiet life after his two terms in 2013, Uhuru's confidants say he is too young to retire.
However, the President has claimed he will readily hand over power when his term ends; he's silent about his own succession in Mt. Kenya.
The region's growing revolt has been fuelled by confusion over lack of direction by Uhuru on a regional successor.
The political pandemonium has forced politicians with big ambitions to step up to carve out their future without relying on Uhuru.
"It is clear the President has refused to allow senior politicians to grow politically because he fears they would challenge his grip after retirement," a Jubilee politician said on condition of anonymity.
The President's Central Kenya backyard is engaged in a bitter falling out with their Mt Kenya East sisters, threatening to divide the region down the middle.
Central, dominated by Uhuru's Kikuyu community, has rejected the enthronement of National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi as the region's spokesman.
The East brings together the Mbeere, Embu and the Meru communities.
The Kikuyus want a ceremony to crown their own spokesman, heralding a nasty split weakening their 2022 bargaining power.
Reports indicate some Central Kenya leaders might endorse Uhuru as political kingpin even after retirement.
Another group wants the community to identify Uhuru's heir and allow the President a peaceful retirement like Kibaki's.
The competing ambitions within Central have complicated the region's ability to vote as a bloc as in 2013 and 2017.
Uhuru's silence about his succession in the Gem nation has precipitated fears of a repeat of 1992 and 1997, when the region was highly polarised.
The last time the President brought together all the leaders from the larger Mt Kenya region was in January at Sagana State Lodge, where he rallied them to support BBI.
Already, leaders from the East have warned counterparts in the West that a divorce is imminent.
At the centre of their political battle is the quest by Mt Kenya East to produce the next kingpin. They have identified Muturi.
Political analyst Dennis Nthumbi said the sibling rivalry in the Mountain is a clear indication of leadership void many leaders are trying to fill.
Nthumbi, who is also a pastor, said, "The factions emerging in Mt Kenya are by design but in retrospect, they are a symptom and a statement the region in one voice refused to bend to the voice or whims of autocracy.”
“The mountain has finally erupted from years of abuse and tribal transactions only benefiting a small faction of overzealous and glorified fascists.
"In its rebellion, united their interests will never be realised, so they have decided to break it,” he told the Star on Monday in a phone interview.
Nthumbi said the divisions are instigated by pro-establishment cronies.
In political science it’s the strategy of maintaining overall control over one's opponents by encouraging dissent, breaking them into small manageable units, he said.
These divisions prevent them from uniting in opposition.
Muturi is backed by governors Kiraitu Murungi (Meru), Martin Wambora (Embu) and Muthomi Njuki (Tharaka Nithi) who comes from the Mbeere community.
They accuse Kikuyu leaders of taking them for a ride yet since Independence, they have supported founding President Jomo Kenyatta, then Kibaki and now Uhuru.
It was widely expected by now Uhuru would have groomed someone to assume his mantle of leadership.
It is argued, however, Uhuru cannot pick the next kingpin as circumstances have a way of propping up leaders.
In the run-up to the 2013 General Election, Uhuru who was Deputy Prime Minister, defended the Gema people who had been stricken by the 2007-08 PEV.
Through his personal donations, Uhuru who alongside Deputy President William Ruto, Joshua Sang, Francis Mutaura, Henry Kosgey and Hussein Mohammed were charged at the International Criminal Court. They faced charges in connection with violence but won the hearts of the Gema nation.
Charges were dropped for lack of evidence.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua said the DP remains the presidential candidate of choice throughout Mt Kenya.
The DP's close ally told the Star the leaders trying to cause divisions among the Gema “are the same people who have been leading the Stop Ruto movement".
“The same people leading divisions are the same La Mada group meeting to strategise how to stop Ruto from succeeding Uhuru. they failed and have nothing new to say.
Rigathi said it is too late to split the electorate and turn them away from Ruto. He said Muturi is at liberty to seek any position.
“Those of us from Central supporting the DP are intact and increasing. Our brothers and sisters from the East are also steadfast. Mt Kenya will vote as a block for Ruto come 2022,” he said.
Igembe North MP Maoka Maore and his Nyeri Town Ngunjiri Wambugu said the President will not allow divisions in the vast region.
Maore said the region is awaiting the President to give them direction ahead of 2022.
“The President will not allow any divisions in Mt Kenya under his watch. He took over from Kibaki when the region was intact and he will retire when the region is intact as he found it,” he told the Star on the phone.
“Meetings in East or West purportedly to divide us are an exercise in futility," he said.
Ngunjiri the fights between the two regions are “because various leaders are trying to position themselves for leadership in the region and country in a post-Uhuru era."
He rejected accusations the President's lack of assertiveness to unite the region has caused divisions.
“This is a natural process when a region is going through a leadership transition. The problem is some of those doing it are doing it wrong — too fast, too loudly and without according the current leader due respect,” he told the Star.
He added,“Time will take care of this. In our region there’s a saying, "Leadership blooms like mushrooms'.
"This means leaders emerge due to social needs of the moment. So don't be surprised if the ultimate leadership post-Uhuru is completely different from those publicly jostling today."
(Edited by V. Graham)
