Uhuru's post-2022 politics declaration benefits Raila, not Ruto

The relationship between Uhuru and Ruto has soured over time as can be evinced from what Uhuru is saying and doing.

In Summary

• In time, we’ll know the details of how the handshake came about and who was instrumental in it happening

• For now, it is enough to know this would never have happened were the two men and their hearts not in it.

President Uhuru Kenyatta flags off the inaugural Nairobi-Suswa SGR trip on Wednesday, October, 16, 2019.
President Uhuru Kenyatta flags off the inaugural Nairobi-Suswa SGR trip on Wednesday, October, 16, 2019.
Image: DOUGLAS OKIDDY

President Uhuru Kenyatta has said he does not intend to use the BBI for a position post-2022.

The question that immediately burns us is who will this benefit more in the 2022 succession game: His handshake partner Raila Odinga or his deputy, William Ruto?  

The short answer is nobody knows for sure.

 
 

However, going by what we know, everything is pointing to this being a windfall for Raila as opposed to Ruto, the man trying hard to position himself as heir apparent to Uhuru and therefore deny Raila the one last chance he has to vie and win.

The relationship between Uhuru and Ruto has soured over time as can be evinced from what Uhuru is saying and doing.

To be sure, this is not something that has happened in a vacuum. The ever not so subtle distancing and sourness of the relationship between Uhuru and Ruto has been brought about by several factors.

It all started when Uhuru and Ruto made the unlikely alliance to vie against Raila in 2013. Nobody gave them a chance but themselves and those who count the votes.

Upon being sworn into office, and pretty much throughout the first few months of the first term, Uhuru and Ruto projected themselves, and, in fact, carried out state affairs as two pals joined at the hip.

What must have astonished Uhuru and certainly alarmed his inner circle, was the speed with which Ruto was moving to consolidate his own power base, while chipping away at Uhuru’s right in his own backyard.

Ruto was not just amassing wealth at a phenomenal and unprecedented pace, by all means, he was doing so with such stealth to amass political influence.  By the time Uhuru fully grasped the extent of own power grab and his chipping away at his power base, 2017 was knocking at the door.

 
 

It was no secret then that Uhuru wanted to replace Ruto as his running mate but the president and his people wisely decided the timing was awful and will create a situation they could not even rig him back into office, given the fall-out that would ensue, especially in Rift Valley.

By the time they were sworn-in for the second term, the writing was on the wall something had to be done to teach Ruto a lesson that you play with fire, be prepared to burn.

The lesson has yet to be taught as Ruto is still openly playing with fire and somehow is of the belief he is fireproof.

Meanwhile, as the country was going through a tense period following yet again disputed elections, and Uhuru’s swearing-in under heavy cloud of illegitimacy fuelled by an unrelenting opposition in their quest to make the country ungovernable, we abruptly had Uhuru and Raila shake hands.

In time, we’ll know the details of how the handshake came about and who was instrumental in it happening but, for now, it is enough to know this would never have happened were the two men and their hearts not in it.

Though doubtful early on as to its lasting effect, we are now at near no point of return with the only test remaining being how Uhuru and Raila will manage BBI.

If Uhuru and Raila do as expected and go full steam to have BBI proposals become part of our Constitution, especially on reorganising government into a parliamentary or hybrid system, this alone will be enough windfall for Raila while taming Ruto and his noisemakers.

If Ruto is politically finished, he could make use of his PhD which many question how he got it.

The outcome of implementing BBI will be the transformation of our beloved country unlike anything we have seen or dreamt before.