THE current election cycle has been very unusual in two ways. First there has been little or no political realignment and the two main vote blocs from the 2013 election have remained largely intact.
Second the campaigns have begun very early this time round. We keep reading of how veteran politician and Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi is determined to toss out his former protégé Peter Munya, the Governor of Meru.
We read of Senator Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o preparing to rout Kisumu Governor Jack Ranguma.
And there are many other political reports that indicate the race is truly on for elective leadership at the 2017 general election.
At the Coast there is a huge race that is not primarily elective, but which is viewed with even greater interest by ordinary voters. And this is the race to become the next Coast “Mugogo” - a strong, unifying figure who can help the entire region to realise its full voting potential, and translate this into political influence.
Allow me to explain a little about this. In the post-Independence history of the Coast, we have only had two leaders rise up and unite the entire Coast region behind them to be recognized nationally as an A-list political player who deserves a seat at the high table where the great decisions of the day are made. These two are Ronald Ngala in the 1960s and Emmanuel Karisa Maitha in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Both these men served in Cabinet but it is not primarily as ministers that they are remembered – it is as the Coast Mugogo of their day.
And we should note here that the likes of Robert Matano, Shariff Nassir, Chirau Ali Mwakwere and others have also either served in Cabinet or have been otherwise influential, but did not rise to the status of unquestioned Mugogo of the Coast region who traditionally wields power and influence far beyond his own constituency.
Now here is an odd fact of history: The two Mugogos we have had so far have both been from the Giriama community, despite the Coast having at least a dozen diverse communities.
Why is this, you may ask. Primarily because the Mijikenda of the Lower Coast are the largest single group in the region and the Giriama account for 50 percent of the Mijikenda communities. It is in much the same way that in Central Kenya the three presidents that region has produced have all been from the demographically dominant Kikuyu community and not from the Meru, Tharaka, Embu, Mbeere and Ndia communities.
In the coast, the Mugogo against all odds, would have to bring together, first the Giryama, then the Mijikenda, and eventually the whole Coast, with its different diversity of tribes. He was loved and respected by all.
At this point in time we have three prominent leaders, all of whom, openly or secretly, are vying to be the next Mugogo. These are Kilifi county Governor Amason Kingi, former Cabinet Secretary Kazungu Kambi and Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro.
All these men have distinctive strengths, but also massive weaknesses. Starting with Kingi, he faces the same weakness that every governor has, which is that, despite massive expenditure, there is a feeling within his county that not much has changed. So, even though he carries the distinction of being a prominent ODM stalwart; was part of the winning team in the March 7 by-election; and also, like all the governors, he is rumoured to have accumulated a massive war chest for 2017, despite all this, the perception that he failed to deliver development is sure to haunt him.
Mung’aro had at one point appeared to be guaranteed that rare status of the next Coast Mugogo, especially when he was the Cord Chief Whip and also chairman of the Coast Parliamentary Group.
Hon Mung’aro also spear-headed the Dabaso Declatation, where he almost United the whole of the coast. And I even wrote in this column, for the coast’s next Mugogo, if not Mung’aro then, who?
However, Mung’aro is a man with many friends in politics, both opposition and ruling coalition, where he is particularly close to Deputy President William Ruto, a fact that has proven to be very expensive for him inside ODM.
First, he was dropped as Chief Whip and shunted aside as CPJ chairman and, second, he was on the losing side in the Malindi by-election.
He therefore has a lot of lost ground to make up for and it remains to be seen if he really can do this before the 2017 general election.
Finally, there is Kambi. His appeal to the coastal grassroots is easily underestimated because of recent setbacks. First, he lost the Kaloleni p arliamentary seat in the 2013 election then his service in the Cabinet, to which he was thereafter appointed, was painfully brief, as he was brought down by accusations of corruption. He has long been cleared of these accusations but has kept a low profile that does not effectively portray his real potential as a politician.
Let me emphasise that I am not saying that these three are the only men who could conceivably become the next Mugogo of the Coast. I fully acknowledge the influence and prominence of Tourism Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala and Governors Mruttu (Taita), Mvurya (Kwale) and, above all, Governor Hassan Joho of Mombasa.
But the point I am making is that, from a historical perspective, the chances are that the next Coast Mugogo will be the man who starts by unifying the Giriama; and then goes on to unify the Lower Coast; and only then finally unifies the entire Coast region as a preliminary to his national prominence.