Prof Makau Mutua recently called for a new consciousness among Kenyan voters. Makau’s main concerns are the paralysis in government, cluelessness by Jubilee and Cord in addressing corruption within their ranks, and potential polarisation that another Uhuru-Raila slugfest portends in 2017.
I am worried about another kind of paralysis we face – the lack of confidence that 2017 elections will be marked by ideas. The elections will, most likely, not be free and fair.
Firstly the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is grossly tainted. We know this on authority of British courts that have convicted businessmen who passed kickbacks to IEBC’s current leaders. Top IEBC officials solicit and take bribes.
Secondly, President Uhuru Kenyatta will not lose elections easily. Uhuru made global history as the first President to take office while facing charges for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
But he doesn’t want to make history as the first Kenyan President to lose reelection, even though his situation looks more precarious than those of previous incumbents.
In addition to his grip on state instruments, Uhuru is the elite candidate. He enjoys unshaken support in Kenya’s largest ethnic group. They don’t depend on his performance.
Cronyism, insecurity, corruption, name it – every ill has skyrocketed under his watch. But unless the country collapsed entirely, there is no reason for his tribesmen to turn their backs on him.
There are good Kenyans from every ethnic group. However those from Jubilee’s bedrock, the Kikuyu and Kalenjin, are cautious not to rear their heads lest they be seen as supporting Uhuru’s opponent Raila Odinga. That would mean certain political obliteration for them.
Raila has shown resilience in the face of Uhuru’s suffocation of democratic space. By single-handedly bringing corruption to the top of national consciousness, Raila has forcefully re-emerged as the only credible challenger to Uhuru.
At the same time, Raila’s weaknesses have festered. His party, ODM, remains the largest but is perhaps also the most dysfunctional and internally corrupt.
Raila’s supporters are a disillusioned lot given the routine rigging in nominations. They are nervous about the toll that internal rigging has taken on ODM strongholds and the secure seats they will lose needlessly in the elections.
Just last week, the party nearly bungled its nominations for the Malindi parliamentary by-election. As usual, the nomination exercise ended in violence.
Thereafter, word spread that the party was consorting with former MP Lucas Maitha, a Jubilee ally. Although the right candidate was eventually handed the ticket, too much damage had already been done.
Raila also blows hot and cold on important issues, particularly about whether current IEBC officials should conduct the next election.
Sometimes he wants the commission disbanded, which he can achieve through resolute political pressure, strategising and consistency for which ODM is averse.
So he has recently been charming the same IEBC officials he has been condemning for three years, with appeals for the commission to ensure transparent voter registration and elections in 2017.
In the meantime, Cord has not mobilised its base to register in large numbers, nor reached out meaningfully to regions that Raila lost to Jubilee in 2013.
While Jubilee has squandered immense goodwill, there is little evidence that Cord has gained from Jubilee’s loss. Lacking political compass and having values that are corroded by opportunistic politics, many Kenyans are unsure of which way to go.
The contrast between Raila and Uhuru increasingly seems to be in their history rather than in current strategising.
Raila has not propagated an alternative understanding of politics beyond pointing out Uhuru’s flaws. The President’s supporters could not care less about that.
That is why even his own allies are lost in the haze of constant politics. Only a handful of ODM MPs and Senators seem focused on propelling the party’s agenda, leaving Raila to lead a one-man opposition.
Traditional pro-reform forces have been stymied by Jubilee repression. Yet this is the time they need to organise around issues they care about, tapping into the progressive bent that has been infused in our politics by recent crises, most notably the killing of dozens of soldiers in Somalia.
Even some government supporters, anxious about the current leadership’s capability to manage our affairs, are beginning to recognise the limits of elected leaders.
This self-awareness is in fact part of a global phenomenon, with especially more young people observing the limits of establishment politics.
The US, UK and Canada have all seen populist leaders rise in the last two years. Nobody knows where the current left-turn will end, but the US, UK and Canada would not be as they are now without grassroots organising.
Many thinkers in Kenya write about these global trends but do nothing to effect change in our own country. Our activists should try to create a protest movement from our current malaises, which can subsequently mesh with electoral campaigns by reformers from the grassroots to the highest office.