At the start of the 21st century, Africa was doing well in the governance index as a new breed of transformational leaders took charge of providing thought leadership that for decades eluded the continent.
This was largely enabled by peaceful elections that deepen democracy and rule of law in several African countries.
This year offers several countries such as Angola, Senegal and Kenya an opportunity to move forward or slide into the past, which was marked by negative ethnicity, impunity and contentious elections.
But even with the global rating of many countries going upward, hence positive indicators, unfortunately still Africa can expect myriads of challenges in 2022 and this is largely due to existing and emerging crises and conflicts that continue to batter the continent and affect its developmental outlook in the global communities.
While the year looks hopeful and calm for many countries, many observers would be keenly watching three major elections that are scheduled for Kenya and Angola and Senegal respectively in January, July and August.
These elections will influence the political trajectories of the countries and are likely to increase tensions and violence, particularly in Kenya and Senegal.
While for decades elections have remained contentious, the 2022 elections that are scheduled in midst of Covid 19, would be keenly watched.
It is expected that the novel coronavirus will further complicate the election-year calendar for these three countries just as elsewhere, prompting some polling delays, suspensions and many uncertainties.
The recent emergence of Omicron has further created openings for leaders to exploit fears and tighten their power grips.
The pandemic–imperilling the health system around the world, devastating economies, and heightening risks of hunger and instability, has created space for political surprises in Africa's elections and general governance and has seen a rise in authoritarianism.
So in essence Covid-19 is already a key factor in how 2022 elections would be carried out.
There have been strong indications that leaders would take advantage of the coronavirus to further abuse human rights.
Politics in Kenya is already heating up and apart from Covid 19, the bulging youthful population that is jobless, the economic continuity, establishment of coalitions based on ethnicity voting blocs would characterise political rallies and conversations.
While democratic elections are usually promising, Kenya’s elections have always been characterised by negative ethnicity and violence as witnessed recently in the debating of the political bill by the National assembly.
There would be strong political alliances and divisions that will be established by the political players.
Already the ODM leader Raila Odinga has crisscrossed the country marketing the Azimio la Umoja as a philosophical vehicle to propel himself to the house on the hill.
This depicts a high possibility of ODM being transformed into a coalition with other parties.
While these alliances and divisions would be more visible at the national level, it’s expected to trickle to the counties and would be more on ethnicity and clans in the scramble for votes.
While for decades the domineering conversation has been about liberation and democratisation, there would be such huge shifting political narratives toward the elections.
The Deputy President perceived as a rebel within the Jubilee party has focused on the hustler narrative. This seems to be in tandem with the living standards of the poor.
While the slogan seems to inspire revolution, if unchecked it can create tension between the have and have nots and classification which is unhealthy for a country whose history has been characterised by strife and negative ethnicity.
Kenyans must decide which economic model would be able to transform them in the post-Uhuru Kenyatta era.
While the above factors will likely influence the elections, it’s the lack of confidence in the capacity of the electoral body by the politician and public that might have serious implications for the elections.
But in an age of digital literacy, it’s the spread of fake news that will determine the elections prevalence of misinformation and disinformation.
The 2019 World Press Index paints a gloomy picture for those working in the media.
The report described the climate and context in which the journalists work as problematic, difficult and very serious environments.
In an age where an increase in fake news has filled our rooms, the media must retain its authenticity and objectivity.
While exposing the rot in society, it must do so with strict adherence to professionalism.
The writer is a political governance analyst and Mandela Global Fellow
Edited by Kiilu Damaris
