The last weekend saw a heightened political activity as both Raila and Ruto raided what the media referred to as Kalonzo’s bedrock or ‘bedroom’.
It was Raila’s first major visit to Ukambani since the jostling for Uhuru’s succession started.
A bit of yellow journalism has happened, overplaying the situation, but history presents us with some premises to consider the issue deeper.
As Raila tagged along with governors Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Charity Ngilu Alfred Mutua, at Wote and Emali towns of Makueni county, he paid homage to Kalonzo by informing the people who turned up to listen to him that he had spoken to the former who had sent greetings to them.
This may also have doubled up as an effort to pacify any dissenting voices and avoid unpleasant incidences during his visit there.
However, the three governors appeared hellbent to communicate that they are not for a Kalonzo as they endorsed Raila.
Kibwana audaciously dared whoever wanted to join Raila’s coalition to “come in as an equal partner”, ostensibly trying to imply that Kalonzo was in the same position as him politically.
Mutua is believed to be supporting Raila for president as the latter is Uhuru’s preferred candidate.
Ngilu is keen to win the gubernatorial race in 2022 and return as Kitui governor.
Nevertheless, lets us recall Raila and Kalonzo’s close political history as we seek to understand what is happening now better.
In 2006, polls showed that Kenyans preferred Kalonzo to Raila for ODM-K candidate
Polls in the early stages of the 2007 general elections in Kenya showed Kibaki leading but closely followed by Kalonzo and then Raila.
When Raila, Kalonzo, and others successfully won the ‘No’ campaigns of the referendum of 2005, they formed the Orange Democratic Movement which stood a great chance of unseating Kibaki in 2007.
Kalonzo had been in Kanu where Raila briefly joined before Moi announced Uhuru his preferred successor, and they bolted out to join and support Kibaki in 2002.
As they all fell out with Kibaki after 2002, ODM-K was formed where Raila and Kalonzo were serious presidential contenders for the party, first encounter of the two.
Polls done in October 2006 showed Kibaki leading at 40 per cent, followed by Kalonzo at 20 per cent, and Raila at 13 per cent.
While Kibaki’s popularity remained steady, Raila formed the famed pentagon of himself, William Ruto, Najib Balala, and the late Joe Nyagah and as his popularity rose above Kalonzo’s in subsequent polls.
Kalonzo had retained ODM-K and Raila moved on to ODM.
However, in December 2007 the polls showed that Kibaki was at 43 per cent while Raila had surged ahead at 45 per cent.
It was going to be a very close election, and it turned out to be, as unprecedented chaos rocked the country with over 1,000 people losing their lives and many forcefully moved particularly in the Rift Valley.
It is important to note, that Kalonzo’s chances of becoming a compromise candidate were very high.
He was the man who embodied the desire of Kenyans for a candidate who would steer Kenya to prosperity and bring them together as one nation where tribalism and nepotism were absent.
Mudavadi in his memoirs Soaring above the storms of passion writes that there were misgivings about Raila’s electability and that polls consistently showed that Kalonzo was the best candidate.
As Raila and Kalonzo had jostled for the ODM-K ticket, Raila had claimed that Kalonzo planned to leave the party and join Kibaki while Kalonzo countered that Kibaki’s preference was a Raila candidature in ODM-K which would make it easy for him to retain the presidency in 2007.
Clearly, Raila played the tribal card on Kalonzo when he established political prefects in various major ethnic communities dubbed the pentagon ensuring a divide and rule like Moi and the British approaches.
Undeterred, Kalonzo went ahead and Ukambani viciously backed him, polling third in the disputed elections afterwards joining Kibaki as Vice President in 2008.
This must have not been a surprise for Raila, considering a humiliation Kalonzo underwent orchestrated by Raila’s supporters at Khadija stadium in Mombasa where he was heckled by Raila’s supporters and forced to cut short his speech.
It is not accurate to claim that Kalonzo likes to “pita katikati” as some claimed because he was the one subjugated by Raila in 2007. Kalonzo would most likely have defeated Kibaki resoundingly in 2007, had ODM-K remained intact.
The expected partnership of ODM and Jubilee may not give Raila significant sway in Mt Kenya, because it does not give him anyone popular there, considering that Uhuru will not be running in the 2022 elections.
Ruto appears to have secured the support of a key political class in Mt Kenya.
Raila may be forced to adopt a running mate from the region in a desperate attempt to appease them and secure a chunk of the over 6 million votes there.
Ruto will obviously take his deputy president-designate from there.
The political ‘wind’ emanating from the region shows that Ruto remains strong, and apathy towards Raila and Uhuru remains in place.
This is going to be a close election again, and if Kalonzo, Ruto and Raila all run, there may not be a clear winner.
Will a repeat mean a Kalonzo compromise candidate and Raila will be forced to respect the position of the Kenyan people in 2006-2007 for a Kalonzo presidency?
Kalonzo still holds immense sway.
