If you follow American politics, you will know that there is one dominant political controversy right now.
And this is over President Joe Biden’s reluctance to step back and allow the Democratic Party to select someone else to challenge the Republican Party’s Donald Trump for the presidency later this year.
At the time of writing this, Biden has shown every sign that he will not step down. While more and more Democrats have come out to demand that he give up his bid for re-election, especially after his very poor performance in a debate with Donald Trump.
How do we account for the clashing perspectives? Well, most of those who would like to see Biden step down, blame his “inner circle” who they argue should have told him long ago that he really was not up to the task of mounting a vigorous campaign against Donald Trump.
In other words, Biden has been isolated by his inner circle, and apparently had no idea of the deep misgivings among his supporters, about the viability of his candidature.
To any Kenyan political observer, this assessment has a familiar ring. Barely a fortnight ago, there was a major controversy here, with blame being tossed in every direction, over who should have informed President William Ruto in good time, of the political upheaval that was then just around the corner.
For it was only after the eruption of the youth-led demonstrations that overwhelmed the country was manifest, that Ruto then set out on damage control.
A better and more effective information system might have spared the country much of the anguish that followed in the wake of these demonstrations.
But our history shows that this kind of thing happens to just about every president. Whether in Kenya or the US, those in power need associates and friends who can help them remain grounded. And in the absence of an effective inner circle, they are bound to lose all touch with reality, no matter how down to earth they were before.
As I write this, I remember our late President Daniel Moi, who was later revealed to have had no idea that he was considered by many to be a merciless dictator. For all he ever heard from the leading politicians of this time, was that he was a heaven-sent patriot who constantly showered blessings on his people.
The clamour for multiparty elections of some 35 years ago came to him as a complete surprise as, apparently, he had been assured by those he listened to that it was only “a few disgruntled elements” who opposed his rule.
Then I could add that on the morning of the 2005 referendum on a proposed new constitution, President Mwai Kibaki and his own inner circle (mostly corporate titans in this case) had little doubt that their side would sweep to a magnificent victory and the new constitution would be approved by overwhelming numbers.
By evening, they had lost by a wide margin.
What about our immediate former President Uhuru Kenyatta, whom – to judge by his words and actions – clearly believed that as the unchallenged 'Central Kenya kingpin', the massive Central Kenya vote was his to give as he saw fit to whichever successor he favoured.
To his credit, Uhuru seems to have had a suspicion that he might not control that vote bloc as tightly as he hoped. For he also said repeatedly that if Central Kenya did not listen to him, then the people of that region should not come crying to him when they realised what a terrible mistake they had made.
Still, the emergence of Ruto as the fifth president of Kenya must have come as an unwelcome surprise to Uhuru – once again a Kenyan president had been revealed to be out of touch with “sentiments on the ground”.
So, who will blame Ruto for not having foreseen that the IMF-inspired Finance Bill, 2024 was something so bitterly resented by a majority of Kenyans, that it would prove to be the match that lit a devastating flame, destroying his carefully cultivated image as a Pan-African statesman who enjoyed rock-solid support within his own country?