Will infrastructure create jobs?

Kenyan political leadership is really a very thankless task. And perhaps nothing illustrates this point more than the average Kenyan’s attitude towards the government’s infrastructure upgrading projects.

Not so long ago there was widespread use of a uniquely Kenyan style in demonstrating against the dilapidated state of roads in various parts of the country. ‘Matatu’ drivers accompanied by local residents would come out with huge banana stems and plant them in the deep gullies that had formed on what were once smooth tarmac roads.

And they would then summon the local media correspondents to record their disgust at the state of these roads, as they danced around and screamed insults at the government for this neglect of what was – to them at least – a crucial road.

But in time there was gradual improvement in many such previously neglected roads in most parts of the country. Plus, there were new highways and interchanges being built, greatly improving the Kenyan road network.

And along with this came a new type of complaint. Protesting public servants would invariably ask: how come there is so much money for new roads we see being built everywhere, and yet there is none to pay us the salary increments that were promised?

More recently, there has been the question of whether indeed Kenya can afford these roads. In online forums the issue is raised over and over again that the money being borrowed to build all these roads must surely one day deliver the nation into the hands of the lenders who will be able to take over our seaports and airports in order to collect their debts directly from these reliable revenue streams.

In this context, the Hambantota Port Development Project of Sri Lanka – funded by the Chinese government, and now reportedly “taken over” by the Chinese when Sri Lanka failed to pay the debt they incurred in building it – is often mentioned as a warning to Kenyans who feel good about all these new roads and railways. The suggestion is that they should instead be nervous about all that apparent progress, as it is really just a downward spiral into unsupportable debt, which will end in the loss of key national infrastructure.

So, any leader trying to showcase Kenya’s modern infrastructure finds that he is more likely to end up spending all his time justifying the need for all and any such projects.

In my experience, there is indeed only one thing which a Kenyan leader may be certain that they will not be criticised over. And that is jobs. Any leader who can help to create employment for any of the millions of young Kenyans who have yet to take their first step towards being self-supporting, can be certain of receiving heartfelt gratitude.

And of course, the two – infrastructure and employment opportunities – are linked.

Wonderfully smooth roads are not intended to be an end in themselves, but rather are supposed to be facilitators of greater trade and investments.

In other words, all these improved roads and new railway networks will have been a meaningless exercise in national vanity, if at the end they do not result in measurable employment opportunities at various levels.

Well, there is one field in which there will certainly be a clear and obvious infrastructure-driven acceleration in investment, and that is in the creation of low-cost housing.

Cheap land is only ever available some distance from the key urban centres, and such relatively cheap land is the key to “affordable housing”. But those who live in such houses require a reliable means of commuting to the urban centre where they usually work.

So better roads can certainly be relied on to lead to a boom in construction activity in peri-urban areas.

But I do not think that the heavy work available on construction sites is what most young Kenyans have in mind when they complain about the lack of jobs. Their dreams are of employment in a factory or an office.

So even if a day comes when Kenyan roads are generally raised to a decent standard all around, you may still hear young Kenyans pointing out that good roads are all very well, but what they need is jobs.