Over the last three or four elections, I have had much the same conversation with various people I shall refer to as “distinguished foreigners” in the period just preceding the election itself. This category includes visiting academics who are supposedly “Africa experts”; members of election observer missions; VIPs I met on my own trips overseas; etc.
And in each case the conversation consisted of me telling them that the upcoming Kenyan presidential election would most definitely be rigged, one way or another. And these distinguished foreigners strongly disagreeing with me.
What these distinguished foreigners seemed to find even more distressing was when I explained that in saying this, I was not making a moral judgment or suggesting that this was a contest between devils and angels. Rather I was convinced that if it had been those in opposition who had been in government, they too would have done exactly the same thing, and used state power and resources in the effort to arrive at a predetermined outcome at the end of voting.
Of course, I had no scientific evidence to support this view. It was just an insight based largely on having interacted with politicians for a long time and therefore having some idea of “what we are dealing with”. It was really just an awareness of just how desperately any Kenyan president and his inner circle of courtiers cling to power; and how far they are willing to go to remain in power.
So, I was very grateful to the Supreme Court when in 2017, the judges in their collective wisdom concluded that the presidential election of that year had been so hopelessly ridden with “irregularities and illegalities” that its outcome could not be valid, and it was necessary to have the whole process repeated. It is these “irregularities and illegalities” which many of us had known about all along but had no real proof of. Now at last the cat was out of the bag.
And Kenya is by no means the only country in which all kinds of underhand electoral shenanigans are to be regarded as a fairly standard practice.
In an essay I read earlier this year by a Dr Catherine Owen titled “State Transformation and Authoritarian Governance: The Emergence of Participatory Authoritarianism?” I at last found a term which accurately defines the Kenyan political system. Ours is not the liberal democracy envisioned by our Constitution: it is indeed an example of “participatory authoritarianism”.
Every five years – and absolutely without fail – Kenyans get to participate in a general election during which they vote for the leaders of their choice. And up to a point, there is real choice exercised in these elections. Many of those who win are genuinely popular leaders. And with roughly 70 percent of all incumbents losing each time we go to the polls, you cannot really say that those votes – and the citizens’ participation in elections – are meaningless.
But when it comes to the presidency, and maybe a few other seats considered to be of strategic importance to the authoritarian establishment of the day, a different logic applies. In such cases, the outcome of the election is, as Dr Owen writes, “heavily managed”.
It is from such a perspective that I see the Kibra by-election which is generating so much interest at present. By-elections are actually very hard to rig, as the eyes of the whole country are on just one constituency.
The historical voting pattern makes this a “safe seat” for ODM. And Kenyans also tend to vote for candidates who are related to their recently deceased leader, when it comes to by-elections. So, Imran Okoth, brother of the late MP for Kibra, has a strong wind blowing in his favour. But it will take just the slightest carelessness by ODM to overturn these established patterns. So, the candidate for the President’s Jubilee Party can just as easily end up winning.
However, irrespective of who wins, and contrary to the many theories about how this election will indicate the likely fortunes of various national leaders, this by-election will tell us nothing about the 2022 presidential election. As I said, when it comes to presidential elections, a different logic applies.
