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OKECH: Did Kenya’s three presidents’ oil dreams vanish?

The plight of the Ogoni of Nigeria illustrates the sinful alliance between African regimes and oil companies.

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by Josephine Mayuya

Opinion03 January 2024 - 01:00
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In Summary


  • Kenya’s oil pipe dream could be a blessing during an age that seeks to phase out fossil fuels.
  • The expected economic boom may be deferred, but the environment could be spared more carbon emissions. 

East Africa's oil rush is attracting global attention, especially in the context of fossil fuels-driven climate emergency. President-for-life Yoweri Museveni is excited Uganda will be exporting the black gold, through Tanzania, next year. 

Meanwhile, Kenya’s hope for petroleum wealth is falling apart. Three presidents waited in vain.

During the graduation ceremony in 1989 at the Great Court of the University of Nairobi, President Daniel arap Moi broke good news. Moi entertained a national fantasy that remains a pipe dream 34 years after the wishful public statement.

Kenya, he said, was on the road to becoming a petrostate. The president’s captive audience cheered, as some dignitaries on the podium salivated knowingly.

The president was kind of saying the economy was wobbling because Kenya had not stuck oil. But one patriotic citizen outside the august congregation was cynical.

Prof Wangari Maathai, a 2004 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, applied intellectual effort to interrogate Moi’s excitement. She was saying a regime that could not manage available national resources prudently would likely squander oil wealth.

The salivating VIPs saw the yet-to-come oil dollars as another opportunity for self-enrichment. History had shown massive waste of public resources that had created a few billionaires among millions of deprived citizens.

Nothing was heard about oil drilling for years after Moi’s announcement. But in March 2012, a year before he retired, President Mwai Kibaki made another fantastic announcement. This time hope came with evidence.

Kenya, Kibaki said, had landed commercially viable oil wealth in Block 10 in Turkana county, also known as Ngamia 1. He described the oil discovery as a “major breakthrough”. British prospecting company Tullow Oil, and its then minority partners Africa Oil Corporation and TotalEnergies, a French multinational oil company, were in Lokichar to deliver the black gold.

Soon a fifth discovery oiled the hopes of plenty, and dreams of new possibilities in East Africa. Crude oil would be transported to Lamu port, Southern Sudan and Ethiopia through the Lapsset corridor.

Kibaki left office, like Moi did, before enjoying the fruits of their executive fantasies. 

Intense activities occurred during the Uhuru Kenyatta presidency, especially between 2013 and 2021. Petroleum wealth, which would oil Kenya’s stunted economy, looked close yet remains a mirage of a dreamy hue.

The fourth president, in a June 2017 announcement, wanted crude oil export expedited under what was called ‘Early Oil Pilot Export Scheme’. Some 200,000 barrels of oil were exported in 2018. The president flagged off trucks, which transported the consignment to the Lamu Port. China bought the consignment.

Hopes remained high, even when things were falling apart: TotalEnergies and Africa Oil Corporation pulled out, citing ‘strategic’ considerations. Tullow Oil remained the sole owner of the now-silent operations.  

After a decade of prospecting, and a short drilling phase, unfavourable global oil prices, unfavourable tax regime, tax disputes, damaged roads, and delayed land and water rights approvals suddenly became contentious issues. Covid-19 entered the mix.

Kenya’s oil pipe dream could be a blessing during an age that seeks to phase out fossil fuels. The expected economic boom may be deferred, but the environment could be spared more carbon emissions. 

Although oil companies claim anti-poverty mantle for their Africa operations, they, in fact, export the fossil fuels extracted from the continent. They leave behind a legacy of toxic contamination, human rights abuses and political corruption.

The plight of the Ogoni of Nigeria illustrates the sinful alliance between African regimes and oil companies. The Royal Dutch oil company, Shell, was authorised to extract oil from Ogoniland amidst indigenous resistance. 

The struggle for justice against a raving multinational created Ken Saro-Wiwa as a martyr in the fight against big oil firms, operating in cahoots with gullible military generals. The Sani Abacha regime hanged Saro-Wiwa. The man died saying, “Lord take my soul, but the struggle continues.”

Prof Wangari was right to be cynical about Moi’s pipe dream of a petrodollar economy. Dreams come nearly effortlessly, like what psychologists refer to as System 1 response to familiar situations.

 

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