From domestic pan to regional fire: Ruto’s tough balancing act

President William Ruto is facing a series of regional crises even as he struggles to save his popularity back home.

The escalating conflict in the DRC and the turmoil in Sudan — where Ruto is accused of meddling — could also define the President’s legacy.

Ruto is currently the Chairman of East African Community, a position he would hold for one year.

Ruto has been accused by Sudan junta leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of siding with and harbouring Rapid Support Forces led by Gen Mohamed Dagalo Hemedti.

The President allowed RSF and allied groups to hold meetings in Nairobi where they announced the formation of a parallel government against the wishes of the Sudan government.

This resulted in Sudan severing of diplomatic relations with Nairobi.

Sudan immediately recalled its ambassador for the second time. The first time was in January last year after Ruto hosted Dagalo in Nairobi and offered an almost head of state protocol and reception.

This entanglement has been cited as among the reasons Kenya lost the AUC election in Addis Ababa.

Ruto is also co-chairing the joint regional EAC-SADC Summit on the DRC crisis with Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnagangwa, the Southern African Development Community chairman.

Given the history and complexity of the protracted DRC crisis, this is a process that will engage the President throughout the year as EAC chairman.

M23 and allied forces have taken over Goma, and Bukavu, resulting in a humanitarian crisis that will further demand his attention.

Ruto has so far held talks with, among other leaders, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, French President Emmanuel Macron and UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J Mohammed on the regional crises.

On Monday Ruto announced the appointment of retired presidents Uhuru Kenyatta, Olusegun Obasanjo (Nigeria) and ex-Ethiopia Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to be the facilitators of the merged Nairobi and Luanda peace processes in DRC.

Regionally, the President also has an eye on the South Sudan’s Tumaini Initiative peace talks, which were adjourned once again to allow for consultations among the opposition hold-out groups.

Kenya has been leading the mediation efforts for the past 11 months following a request by South Sudan President Salva Kiir.  The process seeks to end the country’s political stalemate, which has resulted in a humanitarian crisis and security challenges.

DOMESTIC PRESSURE

The president’s engagements in regional politics is already generating domestic heat, with opposition leaders criticising his handling of the DRC and Sudan crisis.

For instance, Gachagua on Monday accused Ruto of damaging Kenya's reputation on the global stage.

“He is making all the wrong decisions. We have a policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. We cannot allow rebels who have been] sanctioned internationally for genocide to meet in government facilities in Nairobi,” he said.

Gachagua said Ruto had handled the DRC issue “very badly”.

“I am told many African presidents are unwilling to get involved in peace initiatives led by President Ruto because he is conflicted with commercial and personal interests that he has put above national interest," he said.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has also commented on the matter, accusing Ruto of failing to support retired President Uhuru Kenyatta when he was the EAC’s peace envoy to resolve the DRC conflict.

Kalonzo has further said 16-member Southern African Development Community bloc had issues with Ruto’s leadership, resulting in Raila’s AUC loss.

It is, however, expected that Ruto would like to leave a regional legacy as EAC chairman, especially after the AU commission race loss.

Smarting from the AUC election loss, President Ruto is working on an arrangement to accommodate Raila Odinga’s interests to benefit from his support base, a key factor in his 2027 re-election bid.

He hosted Raila at State House Mombasa, where a working arrangement was expected to be signed.

Already, Ruto has formed a broad-based government with Raila, seeking to salvage his dwindling influence in key voting blocs such as Mt Kenya region.

Following the anti-Finance Bill (2024) demonstrations that culminated into anti-government demos and the unprecedented invasion of Parliament Buildings, the President’s approval ratings dipped.

This was worsened by the killings of protesters by the police and abductions.

In Mt Kenya, Gachagua has vowed to revenge his hounding out of office, and is doing all he can to make Ruto a one-term president by denying him the estimated three million votes from the reg

Combined, the developments risk bogging Ruto down as he races to salvage his re-election bid.