The former Prime Minister is facing a delicate balancing act to steady his ODM party to avert imminent fallout should he succeed in his bid for Africa’s topmost job.
The Star has established Raila has convened crucial meetings of two vital organs to deliberate on succession issues amid intense jostling among allies and ODM bigwigs.
On Wednesday, Raila will chair the party’s Central Committee Management meeting, while on April 9 he will preside over the National Executive Council to adopt radical decisions at the centre of his succession.
Among the radical proposals is a push to have Raila remain party leader even as he takes the AU job but the AU code of conduct requires him to be apolitical.
The other option being considered is for Oparanya to be the party leader deputised by Joho and Wandayi.
There's also a school of thought that Wandayi should be the party leader with Oparanya as chairperson and Joho as deputy party leader.
The party has also decided that it will summon the National Governing Council – a convention of all its elected and nominated leaders across the country to ratify the ultimate leadership formula.
It has emerged Raila has decided to carefully navigate his succession through the ODM Party Constitution to forestall an imminent implosion.
The decision was made after it emerged the scramble for top leadership slots in the party has triggered a dangerous scramble that threatens to divide ODM’s 18-year-old legacy.
“We will have our Central Management meeting on April 3 and NEC on April 9 as the best route to navigate the issues constitutionally through relevant party organs,’’ a highly placed source in ODM told the Star.
The official said the party will use its internal organs and, the wisdom and guidance of Raila to “protect and defend the ODM legacy’’ that has been built over 18 years.
“The constitutional framework will be followed closely and discretion will play a part through the guidance of our party leader,’’ he said.
The ODM constitution does not comprehensively envisage succession but it provides for a leadership structure where there is more than one deputy.
"That is what Raila wants to be observed. It is common sense in which things flow'' said a senior ODM member.
For instance, Oparanya has been sitting in for Raila as party leader in his absence.
Raila is Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission chairman’s job. He received the backing of President William Ruto and some East African leaders ahead of the AUC polls in February 2025.
Having been the leader of the ODM party since 2005, the former prime minister is keen to craft a fool-proof succession matrix that consolidates and cements his legacy, despite the jostling and rivalries.
When asked how ODM will handle the tricky issue of succession, ODM National Treasurer Timothy Bosire said the leadership will follow the party’s Constitution to the letter.
“We are prepared to steady the boat under the able guidance of the boss,” he told the Star.
“We have confidence in his guidance and commitment to steady the boat. Emerging ambitions and interests are a good sign of internal democracy,’’ Bosire said.
The former Kitutu Masaba MP insisted ODM’s “structural foundation is very strong, its organs functional and the Constitution very clear on how to navigate the challenges.’’
Factional wars have been fuelled by Raila recent endorsement of his two deputies ⸻ former governors Hassan Joho of Mombasa and Wycliffe Oparanya of Kakamega ⸻ to take charge of the party should he succeed in his bid for the Au’s top job.
Joho, who took a low profile after the 2022 general elections, has emerged with political gusto, insisting that he is ripe to take over the leadership baton from Raila and fly the ODM presidential flag in 2027.
Joho has declared he will run for president in 2027, and received the backing of almost all coastal MPs after traversing the entire coastal strip from Taita Taveta to Lamu, rallying for support.
“I have declared I am ready for the presidential bid, many people are discouraging us, but am telling you, this time, we are not changing our mind, we must be counted in the country politics,” Joho said. “And we will go to every remote village, sensitising our people, then we go to the entire country and talk to everyone.”
He spoke after getting the endorsement of the Coastal Parliamentary Group as the region’s political kingpin and a 2027 presidential candidate.
Oparanya, who is the ODM's first deputy party leader, is raising the stakes for his bid to succeed Raila, banking on his loyalty and recent support for anti-government protests when Joho was a no-show.
Besides the Joho and Oparanya rivalry, there are other groups including National Assembly Minority leader Opiyo Wandayi, ODM chairman John Mbadi and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
Some Luo MPs in ODM are bidding to succeed Raila, to the annoyance of Joho and Oparanya, triggering factions and warring camps within the party.
Babu has already formed a caucus of MPs from across the political divide to provide alternative oversight of the government, saying, “There is laxity in the opposition.”
This is considered part of his strategy to bolster his bargaining power within the Raila succession process as leaders scramble for prominence.
Insiders say Raila will use the next few days to provide leadership about his succession and address internal concerns by members before embarking on his AU| continental campaigns.
Analysts say Raila has at least four options that he can deploy to solve the leadership squabbles in the party and steady the boat as he exits local politics.
The ODM boss can decide to call off the grassroots elections planned for April, handpick national leaders and allow the status quo at the grassroots, go for consensus or allow delegates to pick his successor.
However, each of the options is fraught with far-reaching consequences that could hurt Raila’s image or completely disintegrate the two-decade-old party.
Political analyst Herman Manyora says Odinga will have to bite the bullet to salvage ODM’s future without upsetting the support bases of those jostling to succeed him.
“I am sure that if it would be Raila’s wish, it would be closer to Oparanya. But I also think Joho has more resources and could have supported Raila more in the past,’’ Manyora said.
“There is a dilemma between a man you trust, a man who is a loyalist, a man you are open with and a man who has resources capable of influencing your decision.’’
Professor Kitile Naituli told the Star Raila does not need to cherry-pick his successor, saying a leader will organically emerge from within the rank and file of ODM.
“What Raila needs to is institutionalise democracy in the party so the person who becomes the megaphone of Kenyans’ frustrations naturally becomes the leader,’’ the don said.
Naituli said Raila’s successor does not need to be from among the current ODM leaders but even could be from within the lower ranks, provided there is an enabling environment.
“Leadership is not hereditary and appointive. That is why we are seeing people like Opiyo Wandayi and Edwin Sifuna coming out to speak about the frustrations of Kenyans,’’ he said.
The university don said even if Raila exits, ODM will thrive because the party has been ‘cohesive for many years and leaders with historical traction because of their past roles, such as Wycliffe Oparanya will be there to lead.’
