On Sunday President Ruto and Raila held talks with Museveni in Uganda, heralding what has been seen as a new dawn in the country’s political landscape.
The discussions, which caught major political players by surprise, could reshape the country’s opposition leadership even as President Ruto appeared to lead the charge for Raila’s AU bid.
Raila is eyeing the African Union Commission chairperson job when the seat falls vacant in February 2025 when African presidents will vote.
Museveni’s endorsement of Raila will likely influence the EAC’s choices amid pressure to field a single candidate from the bloc.
The bid requires a high degree of political and diplomatic lobbying among heads of state and government across the continent given that the winner is required to garner a two-thirds majority.
“President William Ruto has shown Raila the way and boldly stepped out to signal his desire to lobby for him personally. The meeting with Museveni was quite consequential as he is seen as the father of the East African Community,’’ political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said.
The university lecturer of History and Diplomacy said President Ruto is likely to succeed in convincing the EAC region to field Raila as its sole AUC candidate in a bid to shore up his chances.
“We know that it is the turn of EAC to field a candidate for the AUC. With the meeting and many more planned, Raila has very good chances of emerging as the region’s sole candidate,’’ Nyamboga said.
The elections for the continent’s foremost job will be held in February 2025 when the term final term of Moussa Faki will come to an end.
After Raila declared his bid for the position backed by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, lobbying for the AUC job has intensified amid talk that former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete could also throw his hat in the ring.
On Friday, Kikwete accompanied Tanzanian president Suluhu Hassan to Windhoek, Namibia for the burial of former President Hage Geingob.
Kikwete is seen as Raila’s biggest challenger in his fight for the AU job although he is yet to make public his bid.
There are indications that Raila enjoys the support of the majority of EAC leaders, some of whom are his close allies. This could work for him in his bid to activate his networks across Africa.
However, analysts warn that if Tanzania fields Kikwete, the move could split the bloc’s votes and complicate the voting matrix at the AU heads of State Assembly.
Raila is AU’s former envoy for infrastructure.
Raila said on Monday that he was grateful for President Yoweri Museveni's endorsement.
The former Prime minister said that they also discussed other issues related to the strengthening of East African integration.
"Several days ago, I accepted an invitation from President Kaguta Museveni of Uganda for a joint meeting with President William Ruto today to discuss the deepening of regional integration within the East African Community.
"Crucially, at the urging of President Museveni, we also discussed my candidacy for Chairperson of the African Union Commission. I am very grateful to President Museveni for strongly endorsing my candidacy and to President Ruto for fully backing it," Raila said on X.
As the news of Ruto’s meeting with Museveni in Uganda filtered, the country’s political class has been coming to terms with the most consequential political move by the president in recent times.
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka termed President Ruto’s endorsement of Raila as an act of good sportsmanship.
“The Kenyan political class needs to realize they can't hate each other all the time. They tend to forget that Ruto, Raila, Kalonzo, Musalia and Wetangula have been together for the last 30 years,’’ Onyonka said.
The Senator said that at some point, there are instances where the country’s key political leaders pull themselves together to do things for the interest of the country
For instance, Ruto worked with Raila twice in the past including when the ODM leader folded his party and joined Kanu ahead of the 2002 polls and between 2005-2011.
Wetang’ula and Mudavadi were Raila’s allies before they ditched him for Ruto ahead of the 2022 polls while Kalonzo is still a key partner of the Azimio leader since 2013.
Raila’s move to work closely with Ruto, his main political nemesis since 2013 could herald a new chapter in the country’s political dispensation and also reshape the 2027 contest.
On Tuesday, former Raila ally turned critic Miguna Miguna said whoever came up with the idea of Raila running for the AUC post has the trump card.
“Whom do you think came up with the idea of the AU Commission Chair’s position? Was it Ruto, or it was Raila? Whoever came up with the idea has the trump card. This is for the cheerleaders who only clap without understanding the Hows and Whys of life. That is the end of today’s introduction to critical thinking,’’ Miguna posted on his X account.
Miguna, who supported President Ruto’s presidential campaigns ahead of the 2022 polls, has in 2023 revealed that Raila had demanded the AUC job as part of his compromises to call off protests.
At the time, Miguna did not, however, provide proof for his claims although he said on Tuesday that he had information about what Raila had demanded way back in 2023.
Nominated Senator Veronica Maina said that President Ruto’s support for Raila’s AU job bid has nothing to do with the role of the opposition because “these are regional politics.”
“The arguments that were put on social media due to the pictures of Ruto, Raila and Museveni together portrayed that some people have not moved on,’’ she said.
On his part, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi said Kenyans should allow Ruto to campaign for his ‘pentagon boss’.
We must never cultivate a country of political hatred that has no value to the nation. This is going to be the best run AU since the death of Kwame Nkrumah,’’ the ODM lawmaker said.
Azimio leader Raila Odinga has said that he is grateful for Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's endorsement of the African Union Commission job.
In a statement after the meeting, Raila said he is also grateful for President William Ruto's full support, as he goes for the job.
The Azimio leader said the joint meeting with Museveni and President Ruto, was at the invitation of the Ugandan president.
