The judges were probably not faced with a similar scenario as they consequently dismissed the evidence availed by the petitioners as ‘hot air’ in yet another ruling that displeased opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Some may say it is time Raila considers his succession, although if you ask others, he has already been succeeded by the likes of President William Ruto, who were once his lieutenants in ODM. Ruto was part of the Pentagon in 2007 alongside Musalia Mudavadi, Charity Ngilu, Najib Balala and Joe Nyagah (deceased).
It might thus be important to engage in strategic planning for 2027 without Raila in the running. This is an audacious statement, but we can project that Raila will not be a serious candidate in 2027 if he runs.
One comment in response to an article I jotted a few weeks ago was hilarious as it was to the effect that “this time Baba is either taking power or Ruto makes him a martyr”.
For students of history, that was a farfetched assertion probably passing as sarcasm. Raila’s political history may be diametrically opposed to this school of thought and his approach is more about political survival. One important thing for people who follow politics and politicians is to be open minded. That way, we can make good judgEment and avoid the possibility of mental slavery through politricks.
Many of sober Azimio and Raila enthusiasts find themselves in a conundrum over this period. The political landscape has morphed, and nobody, not even Raila, can hold back the clock. The issue is not Raila’s age really, but he has been mark timing on one spot endlessly, oblivious of the passing of time.
A larger divide of Kenyans showed they did not mind tags like ‘criminals’, ‘thief’ among others leveled against some politicians, for instance. President Uhuru Kenyatta vilified Ruto in Mt Kenya, speaking even in mother tongue and it was still a drab for Raila in the region in 2022.
It may not be farfetched to say that, if Raila had access, he would “switch off Kenya’s lights” for noting becoming president since 1997, when he first vied. He was also linked to the 1982 attempted coup.
Daniel Moi had succeeded President Jomo Kenyatta in a smooth transition after diligently serving as Kenya’s third vice president from 1967 to 1978. There were no atrocities recorded to have been committed under Moi’s watch from 1978 to 1982, and it was really soon for any patriot to push Moi out.
It has always been about Raila. Since 2007, whenever the opposition has attempted to agree on a presidential candidate, he has firmly staked his claim to that domain. In 2013, Raila is said to have literally begged when they haggled with the likes of Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula, Kalonzo Musyaka over who to front. In 2007, Kalonzo declined to support Raila after rowdy youths harassed him at Khadijah grounds in Mombasa, allegedly organised by Raila.
Are the likes of Kalonzo and Karua seeking to succeed Raila’s political support base?
Before the coalitions in 2022 took shape, there had been rumours that Raila and Uhuru would jointly front an unlikely candidate, former UNCTAD Secretary General Mukhisa Kituyi. That never happened but one thing was clear, though: That if indeed Raila wanted to prop someone else, there were many options led by Kenya’s longest serving politician Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, among others.
The Kamba may be solidly behind him, but is it possible for Kalonzo to stand on his own, galvanize the the Luo, the Kisii, the Coastal tribes, and other Raila-friendly groups? Perhaps Kalonzo believes that Raila will cast his lots for him in 2027.
But history shows this is not a wise gamble. Maybe, for as long as Raila is alive, he will always be on the ballot. Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua failed to rake in the support of her own community in the last elections and there are no guarantees they will sway her way in 2027. The major problem for Kalonzo, Karua and others who may crave Raila’s support is Raila himself. This begs the question about what they would like to achieve from the current demonstrations and aligning with Raila generally. It appears a charade.
The current shenanigans have Raila seeking to dethrone Ruto ostensibly because the 2022 election was “rigged”. Nevertheless, Kenya is not really at a defining moment politically, as Raila would like many to believe. The elections of 2022 — the campaign period, the actual voting, the statecraft attempts to disenfranchise Ruto at Bomas, and the petition the Supreme Court — were moments that defined Kenya’s future, particularly the Kikuyu voting for Ruto to a man.
While Ruto supported Raila in 2007, it would perhaps have been more logical accepting the results of the last election or at least the Supreme Court verdict and focusing on playing the opposition role of checking government. However, Raila is all out pushing for the impossible — a Ruto vacation of State House — knowing fully well he is legitimately and legally in office and that Kenya Kwanza controls both Houses of Parliament.
Raila still has the option of running again in 2027 as the Constitution permits him, but he is most likely attempting to stay relevant.
Raila’s ‘support’ for former Interior CS Fred Matiang’I, whom some claim ‘has eaten the humble pie and sought clemency’, now leaves him with an egg on his face, but he won’t want us to believe so. It was a real coup from Ruto, if indeed that is the case. A president cannot not play politics. As stated in an earlier article, it was not strategic or logical for Raila to own the challenges honchos of the former regime might face, as it is not a sustainable track.
Foundational failures, and continual regime pitfalls such as corruption over decades consistently sunk Kenya into a hole difficult to climb out of, and it will take time to get back on track. Ruto has a major task now of fixing the country’s economy. It is not possible to blame Ruto and his regime for the current economic difficulty the country is in considering he has only been in office for about six months.
However, Kenyans will begin to demand results, except that the current demands are more or less hypocritical because they are led by a man who made extravagant promises himself. Does Raila feel that Ruto is underserving of the presidency because he supported him in 2007? Is it a case of envy? Would it still be the same case of it was Kalonzo who was president?
Raila is simply threatening and planning chaos because he lost the election. Although it is herculean for him, he is putting the country at risk simply because he does not like the one in power. He is simply saying the child be slaughtered, if it is not given to him.
He refuses to accept the verdict of the people of Kenya and the ruling of the Supreme Court. Do Kalonzo, Karua and others want their history to identify with his? Is there any guaranteed profit for them for sticking their guns out alongside Raila?
Karua’s first run in with Ruto was probably during the Kofi Annan-led negotiations in the aftermath of 2007 election, which was punctuated by harsh exchanges. Is it a case of vendetta or simply discomfort with being out of power?
Caleb Mwamisi is a political commentator
