My other love is wildlife conservation, which must be why lately, the shadowy world of artificial intelligence has been ensuring videos of the perennial food-chain wars between lions and buffaloes pop up on my social media timelines daily.
I was watching one such encounter when my little daughter asked me why lions didn’t just choose easier prey than the evidently dangerous and huge buffaloes. My answer was that for a pride of lions, a buffalo provided a sufficient meal, regardless of the attendant dangers, without needing to hunt for several smaller and faster preys all day.
For some strange reason, this reminds me all the time about the dilemma facing presidential candidates in trying to pick ideal running mates. All of them – or let’s just be realistic and say the two main ones – want running mates with enough ground support and national appeal to help them win the presidency.
However, after the chaotic 10 years of UhuRuto, they have to constantly be alive to the dangers of strong personalities outshining them in office, or attempting to delegitimize their rule if pre-election agreements are not met.
Effectively, the two frontrunners, Raila Odinga and William Ruto, are lions hunting for a buffalo, but who could get hurt in the process! By the time you read this, one or both of the two main coalitions may have named their running mate, but knowing how things work in this land, I’m sure they will both wait until May 16, 2022, at 11.59pm, now that IEBC has given them a deadline of midnight on that date.
Don’t be tempted to imagine it is a race against time. No, it is good old voyeuristic politics, where each side has to peep through keyholes to see what the other side is doing because the choice here depends on the other side. In fact, in the last two weeks or so, UDA bloggers have taken it upon themselves to post scoops about what they purport to be the latest on Azimio’s search for a running mate. Never mind the fact that their side hasn’t exhibited an ounce of courage by picking one.
I don’t know who will be chosen, but I can almost tell who will not. As already pointed out, the insubordination and disconnect between the President and his deputy means that even for Ruto, the pick has to be an individual less abrasive and more submissive to the president’s authority.
This rules out the oft-mentioned Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, a man with more hubris than a trapped wild cat, an acerbic tongue and if newspapers are to be believed, lots of money.
It’s almost poetic justice that the tongue Gachagua used to insult Uhuru and Raila over the past few years, may be the exact reason he is denied glory. Gachagua’s predicament would most likely befall Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua. She may be the most popular for that slot on the Azimio side, but her huge ego and independence of mind gives her the profile of a potential Ruto as DP.
It is possible that Raila and Ruto made their choice months ago, but the dynamics are changing because the calculations therein are mind boggling. To begin with, we have been treated to the rare spectacle of the UDA side almost kneeling before the political gods to have Raila pick Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. What they don’t say is that if Raila bypasses Central Kenya and picks Kalonzo, it gives Ruto the wiggling room to also go outside Central without worrying about any gains Raila may make there.
Of the two, Ruto cannot afford to any losses in Kikuyuland. Raila, on the other hand has gone to consecutive elections without the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu, and by many accounts, won or almost won. He can afford this luxury.
What if both candidates went East of Mt Kenya? In my estimation, Peter Munya as the running mate gives Raila tremendous numbers, but that would mean Ruto is stuck with Senator Kithure Kindiki
But if Raila chooses a Kikuyu running mate, Ruto’s hand would be forced into doing the same, with the consequence that he would have offered ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula nothing with which to seduce the Luhya nation.
It would mean that Ruto goes into the election banking mostly on the Kikuyu-Kalenjin support that he and Uhuru relied on twice in 2013 and 2017, only this time with Uhuru and the state apparatus opposing him.
One thing I admire about this particular electoral cycle is the sheer number of women mentioned as potential running mates. It’s a stellar cast featuring Karua, Sabina Chege, Charity Ngilu, Anne Waiguru and Alice Wahome. Indeed, you get the feeling that if one candidate picks a female running mate, the other would be forced to respond in kind. Except that if they both wait until 11.59pm on May 16 to unveil their choices, neither side will have time to adjust to match the other. But 20 seconds can be a long time in politics, and there are a whole 60 seconds 11.59pm and midnight!
Some of the potential picks have problems from within their own coalitions. For instance, I’ve always held that Raila’s most ideal running mate is Ngilu, for their mutual respect, trust and chemistry. But if he taps Ngilu, the tantrums Kalonzo would throw may cause political radiation in these shores for decades to come!
Plus, there is no knowing how much of the Kamba electorate would feel a Ngilu pick is a slight on Kalonzo and punish the Azimio candidate accordingly.
What if both candidates went East of Mt Kenya? In my estimation, Peter Munya as the running mate gives Raila tremendous numbers, but that would mean Ruto is stuck with Senator Kithure Kindiki, leaving the Kikuyu having to choose which coalition covers their interests sufficiently even without offering them a running mate slot.
There is near consensus on the street that for Raila, a Kikuyu running mate doesn’t quite add much value in terms of votes, beyond what Uhuru himself will hunt and gather. But what if the pick from Central Kenya is an individual who appeals to a certain demographic beyond Kikuyuland, both in terms of age and freshness?
The past few days, social media has been awash with permutations around a Raila Odinga-Sabina ticket, hilariously christened “Raibina” by netizens. It may not necessarily turn tables on Ruto in Central Kenya, but it brings such an unprecedented fresh appeal, given Sabina’s beloved nature in Kenyan politics, that it may be what the doctor ordered for, in truly flaunting a fresh start.
Ruto in this case would not only have to respond with a woman too, but one with youthful appeal, while also wondering how to appease his coalition partners.
There is also the small matter of the unveiling from each side happening too late for the other side to realign in response. And this is why I love this game! However, as pointed earlier, by the time you read this, the deed may already have been done and the train may well be out of the station!
