The farming community has been thrown into a state of panic and fear of possible heavy losses due to the delayed rains leading to a dry spell, which the weatherman forecasts could go to the end of May.
Most maize and wheat farmers, especially in the high-producing areas of North Rift, had already done dry planting as they anticipated rains to start early this month. But with the hot weather conditions persisting, farmers now fear the worst.
“Many of us carried out dry planting because we anticipated rain to come by late March, as is the usual case,” said farmer Jonah Koech, who had planted maize on his 130 acres land at Kiplombe on the outskirts of Eldoret.
“But we are shocked that the rains are not about to start. The crops, which had germinated, are now drying up.”
For many other farmers, the maize seeds they had planted were yet to germinate, and without water, the crop will equally fail. Many farmers have either the option of replanting or hope that the rains will fall soon.
The farmers in Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Nandi and other maize-producing areas now fear they may incur extremely heavy losses as a result of the bad weather that will definitely cause extensive crop failure.
The announcement by the weatherman that the rains will delay further is just very bad news for our farmers. Unless God intervenes to have the rains fall, then we have a bleak future for the farming community
DRY-PLANTING GAMBLE
Uasin Gishu Agriculture executive Samwel Yego says they anticipate more than 50 per cent crop failure, and that maize production will drop drastically.
“It’s the first time in many years that the rains have delayed like this. A survey we carried out indicates that most farmers did dry planting and are likely to lose much of the crop,” Yego said.
He says even if the rains start soon, many farmers lack the finances to do replanting, and it will not be possible for them to recover.
Uasin Gishu, which is considered the country’s breadbasket, produces about 6 million bags of maize, but the output has been declining due to various factors.
These include invasion of armyworms, high cost of farm inputs and unpredictable weather, which have taken a toll on the capacity of farmers to increase maize production.
With lack of markets for their produce worsening in the last three years, many farmers had opted to cut down on maize production this year.
Kenya Farmers Association director Kipkorir Menjo says the country now finds itself in a fix. “With no rains coming, we can foresee acute food shortages that will lead to maize importation,” he said.
He, however, says the importation should only be done to bridge the shortfall that will exist and not with the intention to flood the local markets, further hurting local farmers.
Trans Nzoia county produces about 4.5 million bags annually, and the region has been the worst-affected by armyworms last year. Governor Patrick Khaemba, whose administration has been supporting farmers with subsidising fertiliser, says the current dry weather spells doom for farmers and the entire country.
“The announcement by the weatherman that the rains will delay further is just very bad news for our farmers. Unless God intervenes to have the rains fall, then we have a bleak future for the farming community,” Khaemba said.
With the anticipated shortages, already maize prices have gone up by more than 40 per cent in just one month. A 90kg bag that was going for about Sh2,000 now retails at about Sh3,200, and dealers have indicated that the prices could even rise further.
The government puts the cost of producing a bag of maize at between Sh1,800 and Sh2,200, but farmers say this costs went up to more than Sh3,000 following lack of the subsidised fertiliser.
Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Nandi and Elgeyo Marakwet are among the high maize-producing areas in the country, and farmers here produce about 18 to 21 bags per acre, meaning they spend on average Sh33,000 on costs of production per acre.
An independent research by experts from Egerton University last year indicated that farmers in the North Rift use on average Sh5,800 to prepare an acre of land, Sh2,000 on planting per acre, Sh1,810 on seeds, Sh6,800 on fertiliser, Sh2,100 on pesticides, Sh2,700 on weeding, Sh8,102 on harvesting and handling and Sh2,000 as working capital.
This means the farmers use about Sh32,000 on average on cost of production per acre, with the cost of production per bag standing at about Sh1,650. These costs are, however, higher if the price of fertiliser is not subsidised.
“No farmer will be willing to go back to the farms and replant maize with such high costs of farming,” said Mary Kandie, a farmer at Kaptaget in Elgeyo Marakwet.
“The bad weather we are experiencing currently will definitely cut production to very low levels. I can see in my own farm the maize that had germinated is drying up as I watch helplessly.”
Wheat is usually planted in May, and Kandie hopes some farmers will recover marginally from the losses should the rains favour wheat farming.
Like last year they allowed importation of more than 4 million bags of maize at Sh3,900 per bag, yet they offered farmers Sh2,300 at NCPB. This shows the government has no interest in helping local farmers sustain food production
PRICING CONTROVERSY
Moiben MP Sila Tiren says lack of rains will cut maize production by about half. But he is blaming the government for years of frustrating farmers, causing decreased production every season and putting the country’s food security at risk.
“The government has turned a deaf year to the plight of farmers. Had farmers not been frustrated and had the government put in place the right policies for the agriculture sector, we wouldn’t be talking about shortages, even with the current dry spell,” he said.
Tiren questions why the government is always willing to import maize at prices that are always double of what it offers local farmers through the NCPB.
“Like last year, they allowed importation of more than 4 million bags of maize at Sh3,900 per bag, yet they offered farmers Sh2,300 at NCPB. This is quite an irony and shows clearly that the government has no interest in helping local farmers sustain food production,” Tiren said.
Due to effects of bad weather, many farmers have also recalled compensation schemes by the government that collapsed many years ago. The farmers would be guaranteed some payments as compensation on the effects of bad weather to enable them to go back to the farms.
Since the collapse of the compensation schemes, few farmers joined modern insurance schemes to secure themselves from such losses caused by bad weather and other effects.
INVESTMENT, DIVERSIFICATION
KFA director Menjo says the government has lost direction in the sector and ignored policies and measures that would ensure Kenya’s food security remains intact. “We have over the years asked the government to go by the Maputo declaration, which it signed, but we have been ignored,” he said.
The Maputo declaration commits signatory governments to invest more than 10 per cent of the national budgets to the agriculture sector so that it’s easier to finance institutions like AFC, NCPB and others that support farmers.
“Through stronger institutions like the AFC, the government would have put in place a compensation scheme to support farmers in cases of such losses caused by bad weather. But it seems we have no capacity to plan well,” Menjo said.
It’s with this background that there have been increased calls for farmers in the region to diversify their farming and grow other profitable crops, including avocados, cabbages and coffee, and others that can withstand harsh weather conditions.
Agriculture CAS Andrew Tuimur says they had already carried an impact assessment of the drought situation, and the reality is that many farmers stand to lose their crop, especially in high-producing areas in the Rift Valley.
Tuimur says the government is considering intervention measures and will dialogue with farmers to find the best way forward. “We will advise farmers as we study the situation in the coming days,” he said.
The dry spell will also affect dairy farmers with an expected drop in milk production because without water there will be less pasture and general dairy feeds for milk production.
“At the moment, we still have adequate milk to sustain the country,” New KCC dairy company CEO Nixon Sigey said.
“But if the dry spell worsens, then milk production will also go down.”
He said that with the problems in the maize sector, many farmers heavily rely on dairy farming. New KCC serves more than 66,000 people, whom it pays Sh5.5 billion annually for milk deliveries.
GHOSTS OF NCPB SCANDAL
Maize importation has been a thorny issue over the years, and last year, the maize scandal that rocked the NCPB exposed farmers to their worst-ever marketing crisis for maize.
The government allowed maize importation that highly exceeded the deficit, which was required to avoid shortages.
Traders and even politicians flooded the NCPB and local markets with maize imports from Uganda and other regions like Brazil.
Consequently, local farmers were unable to get paid for their produce, as the NCPB ended up paying a few traders and influential people close to Sh7.8 billion that was meant to go to farmers.
The DCI probed the scandal and arrested 10 of the traders and NCPB officials, who are in court over the scandal.
An ad hoc Senate committee also probed the maize crisis and found that there were conflicting records on how much maize was imported.
Its report noted that KRA records indicated that 1.6 million tonnes of maize was imported from non-EAC and Comesa regions, while the ministry put the imports at 949,267.62 tonnes.
Agriculture CS Mwangi Kiunjuri said 3.6 million 90kg bags were received from 12,287 farmers. But the EACC indicates in its probe that 10,663 farmers supplied maize worth Sh11.3 billion.
“Shockingly, from KRA records, some suppliers who were not farmers were facilitated by NCPB officials to supply maize in large quantities using fake vetting forms,” observed the probe committee.
The report indicated that six depots and silos sampled received maize worth Sh8.7 billion, which was about 73 per cent of total deliveries.
The report noted that Sh4.4 billion was paid to only 146 individuals, with 20 receiving Sh2.1 billion.
“In one surprising case, a family comprised of a mother, two daughters supplied maize worth Sh745 million using fake vetting forms,” the report stated.
It is with this background that farmers are worried that maize importation due to the current dry spell could be used to flood the markets and frustrate them further.
“The county should only allow imports to bridge the maize shortfall or deficit we have, and not open floodgates to enable traders to frustrate farmers again,” MP Tiren said.
He says this time, the government should not allow free importation, and it should only be done once NCPB buys all the maize farmers are currently storing.
