Gachagua borrows from UhuRuto ICC playbook for his political survival

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is pulling out all the stops to secure a place on the 2027 presidential ticket in a move that could trigger fresh turmoil within the united opposition.

Gachagua on Tuesday announced a 45-day conclave at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri aimed at building consensus around a single presidential candidate to face President William Ruto.

But insiders in Gachagua’s DCP camp say the marathon discussions will not only focus on opposition unity but will also centre on Gachagua’s own bid for the top seat.

In a fresh twist, sources told the Star that some of Gachagua’s advisers believe he would be in a stronger position to fight his impeachment battles while already perched at the apex of the Executive.

“We are drawing from the example of Uhuru and Ruto’s ICC cases in 2013,” a source said.

Gachagua’s insistence that he will be on the ballot is likely to intensify the battle for the opposition ticket and could ultimately fracture the coalition.

The former Deputy President commands a significant voting bloc in Mount Kenya and is believed to have access to a sizeable campaign war chest.

However, critics view him as a divisive figure whose appeal may not extend strongly beyond his political base.

In 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto defied pressure to abandon their presidential ambitions despite facing charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

At one point, a besieged Uhuru appeared to back down and pledged support for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi before making a dramatic about-turn.

 He later said he had been pressured by “madimoni” (demons).

After their election, their ICC case collapsed with Ruto eventually succeeding Uhuru and now serving his first term in office.

A similar argument is now gaining traction within Gachagua’s camp following the High Court decision that upheld his impeachment while also finding that some of his constitutional rights had been violated during the Senate proceedings.

The Star understands that advisers close to the former Deputy President believe his political and legal fortunes are increasingly intertwined with securing the opposition presidential ticket.

To them, a credible shot at State House is not only a political objective but also a strategic shield as he navigates the legal and constitutional challenges arising from his impeachment.

Their assessment is that abandoning the race for the top seat would significantly weaken his influence and diminish the leverage he currently enjoys within the opposition.

In fact, some believe his co-principals in the opposition could be happier with a caged Gachagua who cannot be appointed into public office.

Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, popularly known as Mejjadonk, confirmed that discussions planned at Wamunyoro are centred on the presidency and the broader strategy of defeating President William Ruto in 2027.

"We are going for the top seat. The judges said we are not wrong, and the Senate was wrong. When we go to Wamunyoro we will be testing which combination of our ticket works," he told the Star on Wednesday.

The legislator, who is among Gachagua's closest political allies, said the consultations would extend beyond the Mount Kenya region and involve leaders from across the country.

"We will take views from all corners of the country. This is not just about Mt Kenya. You will see visitors from Ukambani, Coast, Rift Valley," Gathiru said, "We want to work in a way that after the conversation, we will set off to remove Ruto from office."

The urgency surrounding Gachagua's presidential ambitions has intensified following Wednesday's court ruling.

DCP Secretary for Planning and Economic Affairs Peter Mbae said Gachagua will be unveiled as the party’s presidential candidate after the 45-day consultation.

“We will be walking to IEBC to be cleared, that one I can tell you,” he vowed on TV 47

“We will make sure that we are on the ballot, so that people can see that we can vie. Already we have talked to IEBC, nothing will stop us so long as the case is active in court. It’s not our business to tell them [judiciary] to hurry, we are not in a hurry anyway, we are going slowly,”

Although the three-judge bench upheld his impeachment, it also found that his constitutional rights had been violated after the Senate declined to adjourn proceedings despite being informed that he was unwell.

The ruling has provided a fresh basis for optimism among his supporters, who argue that the decision leaves room for legal and political manoeuvres.

Legal experts have said that Gachagua is free to contest for public office before he exhaust all avenues of appeal.

The High Court had in 2022 ordered IEBC to clear former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko to vie for the same seat in Mombasa.

However, the Supreme Court upheld his impeachment before he was cleared.

There are several bigwigs hoping to secure the opposition ticket led by Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Others are Fred Matiangi, Eugene Wamalwa, Justin Muturi and Martha Karua.

The Linda Mwananchi team led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has also joined the fray

Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli says the legal uncertainty surrounding that provision may ultimately work in Gachagua's favour.

"He can stand and run if the article applies to impeached persons too. Uhuru and Ruto ran on the basis of the article when they were ICC indictees," Naituli said.

The former National Cohesion and Integration Commission commissioner noted that the interaction between Article 99(3) and Article 75(3), which bars state officers removed from office for violating Chapter Six from holding another state office, remains unresolved.

"There is need for clarity on the relation between Article 99(3) and Article 75(3)," he said.

For Gachagua, however, the battle is no longer purely legal, but a chance to take on Ruto at the ballot. He has argued he is the best placed, with numbers, networks and resources.

The former Deputy President increasingly views the opposition ticket as his strongest route back to national power.

His impeachment effectively removed him from executive office and left electoral politics as the most viable avenue for political redemption.

By securing the opposition presidential nomination, he would instantly become the face of the coalition challenging Ruto's re-election bid.

The ticket would also place him at the centre of national political discourse, ensuring he remains a key player regardless of the outcome of his legal appeals.

Equally important is Gachagua's ongoing effort to transform his influence in Mount Kenya into national political capital.

Some pundits see in him as using that as an attempt to be the Raila Odinga of the 2002 politics.

Political analyst Martin Andati said, “He is likely to push for the endorsement of Kalonzo as the candidate for the united opposition so that they start marketing him in the mountain and the rest of the country to try and take the war to the doorstep of Ruto.”

Since his fallout with Ruto, Gachagua has carefully positioned himself as the chief defender of the region's political and economic interests.

He has argued that Mount Kenya delivered Kenya Kwanza's victory in 2022 and would be the one to take it back from Ruto.

“I mobilised five million votes that made him (Ruto) president; I will mobilise 10 million Kenyans to send him home,” Gachagua said Tuesday in a presser.

The stakes are even higher because many opposition leaders have repeatedly emphasised the need for a single presidential candidate to face Ruto in 2027.

Gachagua himself reiterated that position as he unveiled plans to engage opposition principals in negotiations aimed at producing one flag-bearer.

“I remain hopeful that I will be that candidate for the election of the presidency. However, if any of my other colleagues is agreed upon, I give a very firm commitment to the people of Kenya that I, Rigathi Gachagua, and 10 million supporters behind me, shall rally behind the agreed candidate,” he said.

As such, missing out on the ticket could mean being relegated to a supporting role within a coalition he helped build.

Through his Democracy for Citizens Party and growing alliances with opposition figures, he is attempting to build a new political platform capable of challenging the government.

The presidency remains the ultimate prize to undo his political struggles, which he has largely framed as a direct confrontation with Ruto.

 INSTANT ANALYSIS

Gachagua’s emerging strategy signals that the battle for the opposition ticket may be as consequential as the contest against President Ruto. By drawing parallels with the Uhuru-Ruto ICC campaign of 2013, his camp is framing political power as a means of surviving legal and constitutional headwinds. The calculation is that a strong presidential bid could transform Gachagua from an embattled politician into a national contender, making it harder for rivals to sideline him. However, the strategy carries risks. His insistence on running could deepen divisions within the opposition and complicate efforts to rally behind a single candidate in 2027.