74% of Kenyans say country is on the wrong track, TIFA poll shows

The majority of Kenyans believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, with negative perceptions rising sharply over the past three years and reaching their highest level in 2026, the TIFA poll reveals.

The survey shows a clear shift in public mood from mixed opinions in 2023 to overwhelmingly negative sentiment in 2026.

In March 2023, 48 per cent of respondents said the country was moving in the wrong direction, while 37 per cent felt it was heading in the right direction and 12 per cent were neutral.

However, by June 2023, negative sentiment had increased to 56 per cent, with only 25 per cent expressing optimism about the country’s direction.

A brief improvement was recorded in September 2023, when 49 per cent said Kenya was moving in the right direction compared to 36 per cent who felt it was going the wrong way.

Since then, sentiment has steadily deteriorated.

By May 2025, a significant 75 per cent of respondents said the country was heading in the wrong direction, while only 14 per cent believed it was on the right track.

The trend remained largely negative in August and September 2025, when 62 per cent still felt Kenya was moving in the wrong direction, compared to 15 per cent who said it was heading in the right direction.

In November 2025, pessimism deepened further, with 68 per cent of respondents saying the country was on the wrong path, while 17 per cent felt it was moving in the right direction.

The most recent findings from May 2026 show that 74 per cent of Kenyans now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 14 per cent who say it is moving in the right direction and 11 per cent who are undecided or neutral.

The data points to a sustained decline in public confidence over the period under review, with a particularly sharp shift toward negative sentiment since 2024.

Fieldwork was conducted between May 2 and 11, 2026, covering a nationally representative sample spread across nine zones: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western.

Data collection was carried out through face-to-face, household-based interviews, with interviews conducted mainly in Swahili and English.

The study achieved a sample size of 2,013 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.18%, noting that larger error margins apply to sub-samples.