How fuel crisis could complicate Ruto's reelection plans

The growing frustration over the cost of living is now exposing cracks within the ruling coalition and giving the opposition fresh ammunition against the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The latest surge in fuel prices has once again pushed up the cost of transport, food and basic commodities, intensifying the economic pain facing millions of households.

For many Kenyans already struggling with high taxation, unemployment and inflation, every increase at the pump immediately translates into higher daily expenses and deeper frustration with the government.

Political analysts warn that if the crisis persists, it could significantly damage Ruto’s standing among voters who elected him on promises of lowering the cost of living and easing economic hardship.

Some lawmakers have openly criticised National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and economic advisers, accusing them of implementing policies that are hurting ordinary citizens and politically weakening the President chances of getting reelected.

A number of MPs have reportedly warned that unless the government moves quickly to cushion wananchi from rising living costs, Kenya Kwanza risks losing support even in regions considered politically friendly to Ruto.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo said the growing blame game within government ranks reflects anxiety over how economic hardships may shape voter sentiment in the coming years.

“Some lawmakers believe the President could ultimately carry political responsibility for decisions made by his economic team, regardless of whether global oil prices are the main driver of the increases,” Orogo said.

Orogo said fuel prices are especially dangerous politically because they affect almost every aspect of the economy.

“When fuel prices rise consistently, wananchi feel the pain immediately. It becomes easier for the opposition to connect the economic suffering directly to the government.”

During the 2022 presidential campaigns, Ruto repeatedly promised Kenyans that his administration would stabilise fuel prices and lower the cost of living if elected into office.

At the time, Ruto sharply criticised the previous administration over soaring fuel prices and argued that proper economic management and elimination of wastage would cushion Kenyans from rising energy costs. His message resonated strongly with millions of voters frustrated by the increasing cost of living.

The head of state frequently portrayed himself as a champion of ordinary wananchi and promised that his government would prioritise the needs of hustlers and low-income earners.

However, as the country edges closer to the next electoral cycle, the political landscape appears to have shifted significantly.

Instead of declining, fuel prices have continued to rise intermittently, triggering fresh public outrage and intensifying pressure on the government.

The increases have also pushed up the cost of food and public transport, deepening frustration among citizens who feel the economic situation has not improved despite campaign promises.

Orogo said the United Opposition is likely to seize on the fuel crisis aggressively as parties begin positioning themselves for 2027.

“With the cost of fuel directly affecting transport, food prices and the overall cost of living, opposition leaders are expected to frame the crisis as evidence that the government has failed to deliver on its economic promises to wananchi,” he said.

Already, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has signalled his intention to capitalise politically on the issue after announcing that he would cut short his trip to the United Kingdom and return home because of the escalating fuel prices.

Political observers believe Gachagua is likely to use public rallies, media appearances and political meetings to amplify public frustration while positioning himself as a defender of ordinary Kenyans struggling with the high cost of living.

The fuel crisis also presents the opposition with an opportunity to revive public anger over promises made during the 2022 election, especially pledges to reduce the cost of living and stabilise fuel prices.

Opposition leaders have intensified attacks on the Kenya Kwanza administration by resurfacing old campaign videos of Ruto sharply criticising the previous government over high fuel prices.

In clips circulating widely on social media platforms, the then Deputy President is seen accusing the Jubilee government of being insensitive to the suffering of ordinary Kenyans and arguing that rising fuel costs had pushed up the price of food, transport and other essential commodities.

At the time, he promised that his government would prioritise lowering the cost of living and cushioning wananchi from economic hardship.

Opposition leaders are now using the same footage to accuse the President of failing to live up to his campaign promises.

The crisis has also exposed growing divisions within the government, with leaders from the United Democratic Alliance and members of the broad-based coalition publicly clashing over whether the blame lies with the administration or global economic factors.

Gatundu North MP Elijah Kururia recently launched a direct attack on Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, accusing him of incompetence over the ongoing fuel crisis.

In a statement shared on social media, Kururia described Wandayi as a “fake expert” and claimed his leadership at the Energy ministry was hurting Ruto politically and damaging public confidence in the government.

The criticism reflects growing unease among some government-allied politicians who fear the fuel issue could become a major liability.

At the same time, other leaders within the administration have defended the government and argued that external global factors are largely responsible for the rising prices.

Uasin Gishu Woman Representative Gladys Boss (who is also the Deputy Speaker) said Parliament must also take responsibility for the situation because lawmakers approve taxes and levies imposed on petroleum products.

“And that is why I have said on this issue of fuel, this is not the President’s problem largely; it is a problem of Parliament, and we are the ones to do something about it because all those duties and taxes are passed by us,” Shollei said.

Her remarks highlighted the growing debate within government over who should carry political responsibility for the crisis.

Meanwhile, Kesses MP Julius Rutto has warned that Kenya’s current fiscal position does not allow for drastic reductions in fuel prices without affecting government development programmes.

The UDA lawmaker argues that the government is operating within a delicate balance between cushioning wananchi and sustaining infrastructure development.

“What the Cabinet Secretaries are saying and what Mbadi is saying, we are in such a lean space that any other alteration far below there means we either make fuel cheap and stop development,” Rutto said.

He warned that significantly lowering fuel prices could strain funding for roads and other infrastructure projects that also create employment opportunities.

Anti-corruption activist Nelson Amenya offered a harsher criticism of the government, arguing that corruption and misuse of public resources were worsening the burden facing ordinary citizens.

“There is no fuel crisis in Kenya. What we are witnessing is the unbearable cost of theft,” Amenya said.

He accused politicians of enriching themselves while wananchi continue struggling with high prices, shrinking opportunities and increasing poverty.

“The same politicians who masquerade as liberators of the people would rather watch Kenyans suffer while they loot public funds meant to provide relief in moments like this,” he added.

Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura cautioned Kenyans against protests over rising fuel prices.

Mwaura said the fuel crisis is not unique to Kenya but a global issue influenced by “complex geopolitical and market factors.”

While acknowledging that fuel prices are high, he said the government remains committed to mitigating their adverse effects on the economy.

He called on stakeholders and leaders to support government efforts to manage the crisis through sound policies rather than protests, which he said could further harm the economy.

Analysts further warn that if tensions involving Iran continue disrupting global oil markets, fuel prices could remain elevated for a prolonged period, worsening economic pressure locally.

For the opposition, the fuel crisis provides a powerful narrative capable of uniting frustrated voters across political and regional lines.

For the President, Orogo says, he must now contain growing discontent within his own political camp while preventing the opposition from successfully framing the fuel crisis as evidence of failed leadership.