A push by opposition camps for a joint ticket is fast
tightening the 2027 race against President William Ruto, even as latest polls
show a dangerous situation for the incumbent.
Senior opposition figures have intensified calls for consolidation
as surveys suggest Ruto will easily trounce a divided team.
The President remains politically strong and has together with his ODM partners won all the nine parliamentary by-elections since Raila Odinga's death in October last year.
On Thursday, Ruto's UDA candidate David Keter decisively won the Emurua Dikirr parliamentary by-election.
A poll released by research firm TIFA on Thursday shows that if
election were held then, Ruto would lead by 24 per cent beating Wiper Leader
Kalonzo Musyoka by a five per cent margin.
Kalonzo polled 19 per cent, followed by former Interior CS Fred
Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Edwin Sifuna at 10 per cent, and Rigathi Gachagua at nine per cent.
At least 15 per cent of respondents remain undecided, a huge voter segment
whose decision can sway the polls.
While Ruto is at the top, all the other contenders are allied to
the opposition.
Sifuna who leads the ODM breakaway faction of “Linda Mwananchi” has been
among the most vocal proponents of a joint ticket.
He repeated these calls in Gachagua’s backyard on Thursday.
“We as Linda Mwananchi have resolved that we will not allow
ourselves to be used… we are convinced
that there is no other formula other than a united ticket,” he said on Thursday during the funeral of the mother of East Africal Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega in Nyeri.
While the TIFA poll measures candidates individually, political
mobilisation within both the United Opposition and the “Linda Mwananchi” camp
is increasingly geared toward a single joint presidential candidate.
If the two camps successfully front a joint candidate, the
election would effectively move from a multi-candidate contest into a two-bloc
race against Ruto.
Sifuna added that despite past political choices and actions,
opposition-allied leaders will have to make difficult political compromises to
achieve unity.
“So whatever needs to be done, it must be done. If it is to
forgive each other, let us do so,” he said, alluding to him and ODM supporting Gachagua’s impeachment.
Notably, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, also elected on ODM and
allied to Linda Mwananchi, apologised to Gachagua for voting in favour of
his impeachment.
Speaking at the same funeral, Gachagua sent the clearest
signal yet that the two camps — United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi — would
finally form a coalition.
“Hao vijana kina Sifuna wametoka hapa tutafanya kazi nao ["Those young people, the likes of Sifuna who just
left, we will work with them,” Gachagua said.
Sifuna was accompanied by Vihiga Senator Geoffrey Osotsi and
Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga.
Gachagua has been wooing Sifuna, particularly following the
fallout in ODM, which the DCP leader blames on President Ruto.
Ruto’s 24 per cent lead, while significant in a crowded field,
remains well below the constitutional threshold of 50%+1 vote required to win
the presidency in the first round.
The TIFA findings also demonstrate how various opposition lineup
scenarios would perform in the election.
The pairing of Kalonzo (Wiper) and Sifuna is the favourite at 25
per cent followed by Kalonzo, Matiangi at 24 per cent.
While none of these combinations is formalised, they point to
Kalonzo being the central figure in opposition ticket configurations.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi says he doesn't have a problem with
Kalonzo, as he has worked with them under Raila in Cord, Nasa and Azimio, and
that he has not tainted himself.
However, Amisi who is in the Linda Mwananchi camp, opines that
Kalonzo doesn't bring out the energy the youth are looking for.
"I hold him in high regard, he is a man who has stood on
some principles and a man with a clean record. But the young people are not excited
by people who worked in the Moi administration. That is why when you see the
entry of Sifuna, Babu, Caleb, there is some form of excitement," the MP
said.
Beyond the ticket line-up, Sifuna’s popularity within ODM
supporters is also evident in the study.
The "Linda Mwananchi" camp led by Sifuna has 73 per
cent support, while "Linda Ground" led by Senator Oburu Odinga has 24
per cent.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people
centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.
"The strong backing for the “Linda Mwananchi” faction
suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending
public interests and holding government accountable,” TIFA report said.
The survey also shows that a majority of respondents,
56 per cent, oppose the broad-based arrangement, compared to 30 per cent who
support it.
The BBG’s support remains strongest in Northern Kenya at 58 per
cent but has declined significantly in key voting regions including Western
Kenya, Central Rift, South Rift and Lower Eastern.
At the same time, support for political parties shows growing
parity.
ODM stands at 18 per cent, UDA at 17 per cent, and DCP at 16 per cent.