By-election wins and Tifa poll spark fresh push for grand anti-Ruto alliance

A push by opposition camps for a joint ticket is fast tightening the 2027 race against President William Ruto, even as latest polls show a dangerous situation for the incumbent.

Senior opposition figures have intensified calls for consolidation as surveys suggest Ruto will easily trounce a divided team.

The President remains politically strong and has together with his ODM partners won all the nine parliamentary by-elections since Raila Odinga's death in October last year.

On Thursday, Ruto's UDA candidate David Keter decisively won the Emurua Dikirr parliamentary by-election.

A poll released by research firm TIFA on Thursday shows that if election were held then, Ruto would lead by 24 per cent beating Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka by a five per cent margin.

Kalonzo polled 19 per cent, followed by former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Edwin Sifuna at 10 per cent, and Rigathi Gachagua at nine per cent.

At least 15 per cent of respondents remain undecided, a huge voter segment whose decision can sway the polls.

While Ruto is at the top, all the other contenders are allied to the opposition.

Sifuna who leads the ODM breakaway faction of “Linda Mwananchi” has been among the most vocal proponents of a joint ticket.

He repeated these calls in Gachagua’s backyard on Thursday.

“We as Linda Mwananchi have resolved that we will not allow ourselves to be used… we are convinced that there is no other formula other than a united ticket,” he said on Thursday during the funeral of the mother of East Africal Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega in Nyeri.

While the TIFA poll measures candidates individually, political mobilisation within both the United Opposition and the “Linda Mwananchi” camp is increasingly geared toward a single joint presidential candidate.

If the two camps successfully front a joint candidate, the election would effectively move from a multi-candidate contest into a two-bloc race against Ruto.

Sifuna added that despite past political choices and actions, opposition-allied leaders will have to make difficult political compromises to achieve unity.

“So whatever needs to be done, it must be done. If it is to forgive each other, let us do so,” he said, alluding to him and ODM supporting Gachagua’s impeachment.

Notably, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, also elected on ODM and allied to Linda Mwananchi, apologised to Gachagua for voting in favour of his impeachment.

Speaking at the same funeral, Gachagua sent the clearest signal yet that the two camps — United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi — would finally form a coalition.

“Hao vijana kina Sifuna wametoka hapa tutafanya kazi nao ["Those young people, the likes of Sifuna who just left, we will work with them,” Gachagua said.

Sifuna was accompanied by Vihiga Senator Geoffrey Osotsi and Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga.

Gachagua has been wooing Sifuna, particularly following the fallout in ODM, which the DCP leader blames on President Ruto.

Ruto’s 24 per cent lead, while significant in a crowded field, remains well below the constitutional threshold of 50%+1 vote required to win the presidency in the first round.

The TIFA findings also demonstrate how various opposition lineup scenarios would perform in the election.

The pairing of Kalonzo (Wiper) and Sifuna is the favourite at 25 per cent followed by Kalonzo, Matiangi at 24 per cent.

While none of these combinations is formalised, they point to Kalonzo being the central figure in opposition ticket configurations.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi says he doesn't have a problem with Kalonzo, as he has worked with them under Raila in Cord, Nasa and Azimio, and that he has not tainted himself.

However, Amisi who is in the Linda Mwananchi camp, opines that Kalonzo doesn't bring out the energy the youth are looking for.

"I hold him in high regard, he is a man who has stood on some principles and a man with a clean record. But the young people are not excited by people who worked in the Moi administration. That is why when you see the entry of Sifuna, Babu, Caleb, there is some form of excitement," the MP said.

Beyond the ticket line-up, Sifuna’s popularity within ODM supporters is also evident in the study.

The "Linda Mwananchi" camp led by Sifuna has 73 per cent support, while "Linda Ground" led by Senator Oburu Odinga has 24 per cent.  

“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.

"The strong backing for the “Linda Mwananchi” faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable,” TIFA report said. 

The survey also shows that a majority of respondents, 56 per cent, oppose the broad-based arrangement, compared to 30 per cent who support it.

The BBG’s support remains strongest in Northern Kenya at 58 per cent but has declined significantly in key voting regions including Western Kenya, Central Rift, South Rift and Lower Eastern.

At the same time, support for political parties shows growing parity.

ODM stands at 18 per cent, UDA at 17 per cent, and DCP at 16 per cent.