Scramble for Raila bases as Oburu, Sifuna teams stage parallel rallies

ODM party leader Oburu Oginga and Secretary General Edwin Sifuna/FILE

A political showdown is looming in Nyanza as ODM rival camps, Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground, plan parallel rallies.

 The Star has established that the two factions are planning separate rallies on May 31 in the Lake region, deepening the battle for control of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s traditional support bases.

 ODM Party leader Oburu Oginga is planning a major rally in Kisumu, while the rival camp aligned to embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna will hold a separate political gathering in neighbouring Homa Bay on the same day.

 The parallel events are expected to demonstrate the political strength and influence each faction holds across the vote-rich Nyanza region.

 The meetings come at a time when Sifuna is being positioned as the most formidable opposition presidential flagbearer.

 Some analysts have predicted that Sifuna, as a political protégé of Raila, can easily win substantial votes in Raila’s support bases across the country.

 Speaking to the Star, Kisumu Central MP Joshua Oron, who will host the planned ODM rally, confirmed that the Oburu team will be in Kisumu on May 31 for what he termed an “earthshaking rally”.

 “Kisumu will be lit. We will start activation soon,” he added.

 Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, a key member of Linda Mwananchi, neither confirmed nor denied their next stop but stated that Homa Bay was a key priority for the group.

 “Homa Bay is one of the priority areas. It is a priority area to go to. We have been in Kisumu, so we also need to go to another part of Nyanza,” Osotsi told the Star by phone.

 The former ODM deputy party leader said they were scheduled to meet on Wednesday to finalise plans for the coming rallies.

 “We are having a meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) that will make that decision,” he said.

 However, a reliable insider in the Linda Mwananchi group, who is not authorised to speak to the press, confirmed that the team is heading to Homa Bay on May 31, 2026.

 The battle for Raila’s Nyanza base comes at a delicate moment for President William Ruto, who is increasingly banking on gaining a foothold in Luo Nyanza as part of his re-election calculations.

 There are fears that the growing divisions within ODM now present a fresh challenge to Ruto’s strategy, especially as Mt Kenya continues to show signs of slipping away from the ruling camp.

 In the last two weeks, the vote-rich Mt Kenya region has seen rising discontent and defections from the Kenya Kwanza alliance.

 It is widely believed that opposition forces opposed to Ruto are keen on using the Sifuna faction to solidify anti-government sentiments in Nyanza and block further inroads by the President into Raila’s backyard.

 However, the Oburu-led ODM faction is now going all out to assert its authority and ring-fence its support bases from infiltration by rivals.

 Over the weekend, ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga declared that her side would organise the “mother of all rallies” in Kisumu to prove which faction commands greater support in the lakeside city, widely regarded as ODM’s political nerve centre.

 “They (Linda Mwananchi) have been boasting about their recent Kisumu rally. I want to tell you we are coming to Kisumu to show the whole world how strong ODM is in Kisumu,” Wanga said in Nyando.

 She spoke during the burial of Awasi/Onjiko ward ODM chairman Philemon Abuya.

 Her remarks appeared to directly respond to the Linda Mwananchi rally held in Kisumu on April 29, which drew huge crowds and was interpreted by political observers as a show of force by the Sifuna-led camp.

 Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo also dismissed the recent Linda Mwananchi rally in Kisumu, insisting that the region remains a stronghold of the Orange Democratic Movement and cannot be swayed by rival political formations.

 Speaking ahead of the anticipated rally, Odhiambo said leaders behind the Linda Mwananchi movement were wasting their time trying to penetrate Nyanza, arguing that residents remain firmly loyal to ODM leader Raila and the party’s ideals.

 “Kisumu is home to ODM and we are storming it soon,” Odhiambo told the Star.

 He added that the region has historically stood with ODM and warned politicians against using Kisumu for what he termed political experiments aimed at weakening the party’s influence in Luo Nyanza.

 The latest rivalry also comes at a time when ODM Party leader Oburu is trying to keep the ODM house in order and consolidate its support base, especially in Western Kenya.

 On Monday, the Siaya Senator chaired a meeting that brought together various Kakamega ODM factions that have been operating around Cooperative CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa.

 At the same time, the Oburu-led camp is also struggling to restore order within its Western Kenya base, where cracks and supremacy battles have emerged, threatening another key voting bloc for Ruto.

 In a move to reinforce ODM’s foothold in Kakamega county, Oburu chaired a high-level leadership meeting bringing together key party figures and elected leaders from the region.

 Present at the meeting were Oparanya, Barasa, who also serves as the county party chairman and several Members of Parliament from the county.

 Also in attendance were MPs Benard Shinali (Ikolomani), Elsie Muhanda (Woman Representative), Nabii Nabwera (Lugari), Johnson Manya Naicca (Mumias West), Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo) and Christopher Aseka Wangaya (Khwisero).

 The discussions focused on solidifying ODM’s presence in Kakamega, with leaders urged to work in unity and strengthen coordination across the county.

 Kakamega has been one of the areas with parallel ODM leadership.

 While Barasa was procedurally elected as the ODM county chairman, Nabwera, backed by Oparanya, has also declared himself the county chair.

 At Monday’s Western Kenya meeting, the leaders agreed that closer collaboration would be key to consolidating ODM’s political base in Kakamega, which remains one of the party’s strongholds.

 The engagement is part of broader efforts by the party leadership to streamline operations and ensure consistency in messaging and mobilisation ahead of future political activities.

 INSTANT ANALYSIS

 Political analysts now warn that the continued public rivalry risks weakening ODM unity at a time when the party is also grappling with pressure from both government allies and emerging opposition formations seeking footholds in Raila’s strongholds. Although leaders from both camps insist they remain loyal to Raila, the parallel mobilisation efforts have heightened speculation over their intentions.