Ruto’s 2027 dilemma as ODM and allies demand Kindiki job

ODM has indicated to the President that among its irreducible minimums in the 2027 talks is the deputy president’s position.

Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir recently stoked the embers when he fronted Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho as the most suitable pick.

The governor said that if the DP is being drawn from ODM, his predecessor is the most acceptable, citing a strong backing of the Coast.

“Kindiki should not get worried because that position is his for now, but in 2027 Joho will take it," Nassir said.

Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru has also put a strong bid for the position, saying it is Kirinyaga’s turn to ascend to the top slots.

She argues that Kiambu, Nyeri, Mt Kenya East, have had their chance, and hence it was time for Kirinyaga.

“In which side is the chance for Kirinyaga higher?” she asked, pointing out that backing Ruto’s reelection bid is the most viable route.

As she positions herself as the best to deliver the Mt Kenya vote to Ruto’s basket, the incumbent DP is not resting on his laurels either.

President Ruto’s heap of praise on Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has also triggered talk of whether he is setting eyes on the former Suba South MP.

Some quarters believe Musalia Mudavadi is also angling to be a favourite pick, leveraging the Western voter numbers.

Even so, Kindiki, with the backing of leaders from his Mt Kenya East backyard, is not taking the demand lying down.

The Deputy President has previously dismissed such talk as "hot air" and insisted he is not going anywhere.

"I am the deputy president and am not going anywhere. In politics, I am no pushover and cannot be intimidated," Kindiki said in Meru recently.

In the past three months, the DP has intensified his activities in the Mt Kenya region, meeting leaders, inspecting projects, and handling crises.

An analysis of his trips reveals that out of about 60 visits to various regions across the country, a total of 23 have been to Mt Kenya.

His visits for the past three months, the analysis shows, have been concentrated in Meru and Nyeri.

This includes stops in Kiambu, Embu, Murang’a, and Nakuru counties.

Kindiki’s allies in Mt Kenya have also rallied behind him, with governors and MPs from the region warning that the seat is not up for negotiation.

They argue that Mt Kenya delivered for Ruto in 2022 and deserves to keep the position, rallying residents that the seat is their closest to power.

Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki is among the figureheads who have put it bluntly that the DP should be "completely off the negotiation table."

Ruto finds himself in a difficult position as he needs both sides to win in 2027.

ODM brings numbers from Nyanza, Western, Coast and parts of the pastoralist communities. The party joined Ruto's broad-based government after the 2024 protests and has been a key partner since.

If ODM walks away, Ruto loses support in these previous opposition territories.

However, dropping Kindiki could see the remaining support in Mount Kenya bolt away.

Another pick within the Mt Kenya region could also see Kindiki's East backyard drift away.

The memory of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's impeachment is still fresh, and many in the region felt betrayed when he was removed.

“It puts him in a very awkward position as sacking Kindiki would harden the resolve of the mountain to vote against him and lose whatever little support that remains there,” Political Analyst Martin Andati said.

“Two, if he gives it to ODM, then who' takes it? Is it Oburu Oginga, Gladys Wanga, Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya or who? Likewise, Musalia would feel slighted if it were taken away from Kindiki and given to ODM, yet he stood with Ruto at a very critical moment,” Andati noted.

Ruto has said he wants to win the 2027 election by a big margin. To do that, he needs both his current base and ODM supporters.

Things are not straightforward on ODM's side either. The party has its own fights.

While Nassir and Joho are pushing for closer ties with Ruto, another faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and MP Babu Owino wants ODM to field its own presidential candidate.

They argue that joining Ruto's government has damaged the party's brand.

These internal fights could weaken ODM's bargaining power. If the party is divided, Ruto may find it easier to resist its demands.

For the Mt Kenya political leaders, the easiest route for the region to get the presidency any time soon is to go through Ruto.

“We need to ensure he wins in 2027, then our son Kindiki will run in 2032,” Energy PS Alex Wachira said.

Political commentator and lawyer Joshua Nyamori says both UDA and ODM must make a winning decision, and one that is productive.

“This entails consolidating everyone under one umbrella. You can have desires, but there is also the reality,” he said.

Nyamori added that the Mbeere North by-election wins elevated Kindiki and showed he has some gravitas.

“With Mt Kenya West having no proper leader, the DP is not coming to the table empty-handed,” he said.

He said ODM should look for what will benefit the masses, citing the projects President Ruto launched recently.

“When the president asked leaders to ‘ti gi wiyi’ (use your minds), it meant that the region needs more positions of influence in development programs. The DP office doesn’t have such development budgets,” Nyamori said.

His take is that ODM’s winning formula would be to retain persons with positions of influence.

“Let Joho know that we have a competent DP who presents a winning formula for the President.”

Bahati MP Irene Njoki used the analogy of a polygamous family where the ‘new wife wants to use the first wife’s bedroom’.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says, “President Ruto is ably now balancing the interests of UDA and ODM, in such a manner that ODM has no disgruntlement as of now.”

He observes that “ODM may reconsider the DP position if other more satisfying interests are granted.”

“The broader interests of the two parties will have to be considered carefully, without upsetting the apple cart that the Kenya Kwanza arrangement is,” Bigambo said.

For now, Ruto has maintained a studious silence on the demands. He has not publicly commented on the demands from ODM.

His allies say coalition negotiations are ongoing and everything will be resolved in a ‘win-win’ manner.

Kindiki's camp believes the deputy president has performed well and deserves to stay.

They point to his work ethic and the development projects he has been promoting across the country.

ODM, however, argues that if they are going to be full partners in government, they deserve a seat at the highest table.