Kindiki, Musalia or ODM: Ruto’s big dilemma over 2027 running mate

Jostling has commenced in earnest for President William Ruto’s potential running mate, with ODM angling for the position.

With President Ruto seemingly losing his grip on the vote-rich region of Mt Kenya that overwhelmingly supported him in 2022, pundits now believe that he must look elsewhere.

And given his pact with ODM under the broad-based government arrangement, analysts say he can only tie the ODM support for his re-election by granting them a running mate.

Following the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, whom Ruto recently described as the only serious challenger he could have faced in 2025, the President is expected to make the tough decision on whether to retain Prof Kithure Kindiki or name a replacement.

Speaking during an interview with NTV last Sunday, acting party leader Oburu Oginga maintained that the party will only negotiate for top positions from a position of strength and not desperation.

The Siaya Senator then declared that ODM will not accept any position lower than that of the Deputy President in any pre-election coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election.

“If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two in any formation. That is my take. We should not take less than that,” Oburu said.

Among Ruto’s possible running mates are Treasury CS John Mbadi, his Cooperatives counterpart Wycliffe Oparanya and Mining’s Hassan Joho or Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

Ruto faces a delicate task of balancing the positions between the east and west of the country, with some arguing that you can’t have a President and his running mate from the same region.

Therefore, picking a running mate from Luoland or Western, where it's Mbadi, Wanga, Oparanya or even Musalia, is perceived to be detrimental to this idea.

“If Ruto decides to consider his running mate from ODM in 2027, it will be Hassan Joho so as to create a balance of power,” Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo said on Thursday.

“You cannot have the President and his deputy coming from one region of the country. These are some of the arithmetics that have to be considered.”

Some believe that Ruto may have settled on Mbadi, citing his remarks during the burial of Raila in Bondo, when the President asked him to stand and asked the crowd ‘kama anatosha’.

“The President has already picked his choice. Just go back to his speech in Bondo and see what he spoke about Mbadi. That should give you an answer,” a second-term ODM MP said.

Mombasa Governor Abudlswamad Nassir, who is also the ODM deputy party leader, argues that his party is open to having a running mate for Ruto.

However, he clarified that the running mate must be run through the party structures.

Speaking at NTV's 'Fixing the Nation' on October 27, Nassir addressed questions about whether ODM would be willing to provide a deputy presidential candidate if Kenya Kwanza, led by President William Ruto, approached them for a partnership.

“Before even proposing Gladys to be the Deputy President, first of all, I'd have a sit down with her and ask, are you interested in being the Deputy President?” Nassir said.

“If she said yes, then that has to go to the Central Management Committee for deliberation.”

The talk of having a running mate from ODM is not being taken lightly in Mt Kenya region, where Meru leaders have opposed the idea.

On Monday, seven MPs met and cautioned Ruto against the plan. They asked ODM to forget about the DP's position, insisting it belongs to the Mt Kenya East region.

The lawmakers are Mugambi Rindikiri, Mpuru Aburi, George Mutunga, Dan Kiili, Julius Taitumu, Shadrack Mwiti, nominated MP Dorothy Muthoni and Meru Woman Representative Karambu Kailemia.

“We want to tell our President that Mt Kenya East is fully behind him, but our support stands because of Kindiki,” Buuri MP Rindikiri said.

“For many years, our region has supported others for top seats. Now that we finally have one of our own, why should anyone start feeling greedy? The ODM brigade should forget about this seat because it is not vacant.”

Mpuri (Tigania East) added, “Let our brothers from the Lake region forget this seat. It belongs to Mt Kenya East, and we are ready to defend it come rain or sunshine.”

Tigania West MP Mutunga added, “We cannot allow anyone to replace Kindiki. The President should not listen to empty noise driven by greed for power.

“We have enough votes to bargain with any political formation, and those eyeing the seat should know Mt Kenya East has the numbers and will defend its position.”

Meanwhile, Western Kenya MPs, led by Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka and Ikolomani MP Benard Shinali, have endorsed Oparanya, arguing that the time has come for the Western region to get out of the shadows and run after the top leadership roles.

Responding to the support, Oparanya said, “I am comfortable with where I am now, serving as Cabinet Secretary. That might be their wish, and I can’t stop their wish. I am satisfied with what I have. I ended up here where I am because I wasn’t expecting to be where I am at the moment.”